AI时代的真实自我：谁是真正的“Peter”？ Lecture Title: The True Self in the Age
第二章 Chapter 2
从“Vibe Coding”到盖茨预言：被替代的恐慌
From Vibe Coding to Gates’ Prophecy — The Fear of Replacement
一、“Vibe Coding”到底是什么？
1. What Is “Vibe Coding” Exactly?
“Vibe Coding”并不是一种新编程语言，而是一种团队协作方式的革命。它利用AI辅助工具自动生成代码、调试错误、生成文档，甚至提出优化建议。其核心思想是：一个10人团队，配备先进AI工具，可以完成原本需要50-100人做的开发任务。
“Vibe Coding” isn’t a new programming language. It’s a revolution in team collaboration. It combines AI tools that automatically generate code, debug, document, and optimize. The core idea: a 10-person team, empowered by AI, can do the work of 50 to 100 developers.
这不仅仅是效率提升，更是“人类劳动力”的根本性重构。它意味着：
• 中层程序员被边缘化
• 团队管理者被自动协调机制替代
• 初学者面临更大门槛
This isn’t just an efficiency gain—it’s a fundamental reconstruction of “human labor.” It implies:
• Mid-level developers are marginalized
• Team managers are replaced by auto-coordination systems
• Beginners face a higher threshold to entry
二、投资人为何狂热？
2. Why Are Investors So Obsessed?
AI coding初创公司正在成为风投的香饽饽。OpenAI、Replit、Cognition Labs、Codium等公司接连获得数千万美元投资。因为它们满足了三大资本梦想：
AI coding startups are becoming the darling of venture capital. OpenAI, Replit, Cognition Labs, Codium, and others are securing tens of millions in funding. Why? Because they fulfill the three dreams of capital:
1. 用更少的人完成更多的活（成本最低）
2. 产品速度更快上市（抢占市场）
3. 自动化程度高（更易规模化）
4. Do more with fewer people (lowest cost)
5. Get products to market faster (first-mover advantage)
6. High automation (easy to scale)
三、Bill Gates 的十年预言：AI将替代大多数人类工作
3. Bill Gates’ Ten-Year Prophecy: AI Will Replace Most Human Jobs
2024年，盖茨在一场Netflix纪录片推广活动中公开表示：
“十年内，AI将取代很多医生与老师。对大多数事情，人类将不再‘需要’。”
In 2024, Bill Gates stated during a Netflix documentary promo:
“Within ten years, AI will replace many doctors and teachers. For most things, humans won’t be needed.”
这句话引起巨大争议。它不仅关乎教育、医疗行业的未来，更挑战了“人类在社会中不可替代”的信仰。
The remark sparked massive controversy. It wasn’t just about the future of education and healthcare—it challenged the belief that humans are fundamentally irreplaceable.
但细想之下，这预言其实早已悄然实现：
• 美国远程问诊平台使用AI算法辅助初诊
• 数字教师App帮助数百万学生自学
• AI心理咨询工具每月与数十万人“对话”
But think more deeply—it’s already happening:
• US telehealth platforms use AI to assist diagnoses
• Digital teacher apps help millions of students self-learn
• AI therapy tools hold “conversations” with hundreds of thousands monthly
四、来自普通人的恐惧与质疑
4. Fears and Doubts from Everyday People
在一次对话中，一位会计师问我：“我做了十几年财务，AI是不是很快也能把我取代？”
In a recent talk, an accountant asked me: “I’ve worked in finance for over a decade. Will AI replace me too?”
我的回答是：“不是会不会，而是已经开始。”
My answer: “It’s not a matter of if. It’s already begun.”
而另一位家长说：“我孩子才小学三年级，他长大后还有必要考大学吗？”
Another parent said: “My kid is in third grade—will college even matter by the time he grows up?”
这正是关键问题：我们还是否拥有未来的主动权？
This is the key issue: Do we still have agency over our future?
五、面对恐慌，我们该如何重塑思维？
5. How Do We Respond to the Panic?
AI无法阻挡，它不会等我们准备好才来。我们必须从“被动接受”变为“主动参与”：
AI is unstoppable. It won’t wait until we’re ready. We must shift from “passive acceptance” to “active participation.”
我们要问的不是“我会不会被取代”，而是：
1. 我能否利用AI增强自己？
2. 我如何训练自己不被轻易替代？
3. 我能否创造AI无法企及的价值？
We should ask not “Will I be replaced?” but:
1. Can I use AI to augment myself?
2. How can I train myself to be less replaceable?
3. Can I create value that AI cannot reach?
六、小结：恐慌只是开始，选择才是关键
6. Summary: Panic Is Just the Beginning, But Choice Is the Key
AI的浪潮不是问题，问题是我们面对它时的选择与反应。科技永远是中性的，关键在于人类是否能做出更高维度的回应。
The AI wave isn’t the problem. The problem lies in our choices and reactions. Technology is always neutral. What matters is whether humans can respond from a higher dimension.
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