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About NVDA/AVGO/ORCL again

三心三意 2025-12-13 13:38:00 ( reads)

Since so many posts about these 3 companies recently, just want to summarize my thoughts

1: NVDA is the best buy amognest these 3 at current price. Market can go up and down, and NVDA could even go as low as 140-150 if we see a big correction on Nasdaq, but I see NVDA firmly above 220+ in H1 of 2026. Right now, NVDA is traded at 25 forward PE

2: AVGO is also a solid buy but carries a high premium. After yesterday's crash, AVGO now stands at 35 forward PE. Considering its 47% EPS growth in 2026 and another 40% in 2027, 35 PE is not unreasoanble but still elevated. I think the floor for AVGO could be 270-310 in the worst case if we see a large Nasdaq correction. However, this is easily a 400+ stock before end of 2026, and may even stretch into 500.

3: ORCL is a tricky one. If you look at its EPS projection, it is backloaded into 2028-2029 (with growth rate above 35%). But for next 2 years, in 2026 and 2027, street has lowered the expectation and now only expects 20% growth. Coupled with uncertainty of high debt, patience is required to buy into Oracle and average price entry point need to be carefully managed. 

  With forward EPS estimate of $7.26, ORCL could go as low as $140 (for a PE of 20) if Nasdaq sells off. Right now at 189, it is priced at 26 PE. But as long as ORCL continues to meet EPS targets, we should see ORCL to go back to 220-250 range in 2026. As said above, paitence is required as it may take until 2027 to see explosive share price movement

跟帖(23)

Kezuroukai

2025-12-13 13:52:37

谢谢

越挫越勇2

2025-12-13 14:07:34

TY! FA+TA+Risk Management...

dindindon

2025-12-13 14:09:15

AVGO支撑位,观点大致相同, 参考帖内的图

三心三意

2025-12-13 14:11:01

Above is just a simple EPS analysis, a rough range

bogbog

2025-12-13 16:12:02

是的, I wouldn't buy the first red candle.

半亩园

2025-12-13 14:21:53

谢分享

bogbog

2025-12-13 15:36:50

是的。 我觉得Orcl 132左右是个强支撑,但是大机会到不了。

越挫越勇2

2025-12-13 15:49:21

Bog,不要132啊。。。要不贫下中农很久不得翻身了。哈哈

bogbog

2025-12-13 15:52:29

三心文章中提到140, 我觉得跟TA的强支撑132接近, 但大概率到不了

越挫越勇2

2025-12-13 16:05:12

抱歉,Bog。是我粗心失言了 :-)

bogbog

2025-12-13 16:08:02

没有,我是觉得跌那么多的概率低。

dancingpig

2025-12-13 16:11:24

真到了我岂不偷鸡不成反蚀把米

bogbog

2025-12-13 18:08:52

:-p

hvhp

2025-12-13 17:03:59

请教三心对这几个股票有操作吗? 特别是ORCL, 在考虑是不是需要从ORCL换到NVDA

三心三意

2025-12-13 17:22:41

具体的策略要自己做,做整体计划, 根据自己的仓位%和风险承受能力去决定。

三心三意

2025-12-13 17:24:28

比如说我前一阵子把AVGO调仓一部分去NVDA,那我现在去加AVGO不代表我更看好它

三心三意

2025-12-13 17:26:41

再比如说如果我现在买ORCL是因为我的cost低,容错率可以高一点,但这并不代表这就是最低点

三心三意

2025-12-13 17:29:26

However, 有一点我可以肯定的说,这3只股票如果不小心跌到我这里提到的低位,我会毫不犹豫的大力再加仓

othershore

2025-12-14 06:35:05

谢谢三心,收益匪浅

文心兰1

2025-12-13 17:41:53

谢谢!

NewLeaf2021

2025-12-13 17:43:38

感谢三心!

*江南雨*

2025-12-13 19:38:50

完全同意! 谢谢分享!

薄利多收

2025-12-13 20:28:53

谢三心同学。如果 NVDA / ORCL 跌倒好价位,我会加仓 NVDA, 建仓 ORCL。