昨天写的一篇英文思考：James Anderson: A Confluence of Ideas

As I prepared to step down as co-manager of the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust in 2022, I found myself reflecting on the profound ideas that have shaped my investment philosophy. In a world obsessed with noise, true success comes from the quiet rigor of intellectual curiosity.

■ The Collection of Thought

John Maynard Keynes once noted: "Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." My only amendment? We must pay as much attention to living thinkers and scholars outside of economics as we do to the greats of the past. Today’s financial industry remains shackled by "preconceived ideas" that fail to address new realities.

■ When Bad Theory Corrupts Markets
A primary example is the obsession with defining risk as "volatility around an index." This harmful theory, born in the halls of Chicago and MIT, claims we can "defeat risk" through measurement and option pricing. This mindset fueled the 2008–09 crisis.

We must return to the humility of John Kay and Mervyn King’s "Radical Uncertainty." Embracing the unknown—and valuing a true diversity of thought—has been the greatest reward of my career.

■ The Concentration of Returns
For years, we noticed a pattern: our portfolio results were dominated by a tiny fraction of stocks. To explain this, we turned to the Santa Fe Institute.

Brian Arthur’s insights into "increasing returns to scale" for intellectual property-based businesses changed everything. Unlike the equilibrium of the past, today’s leadership—once established—leads to massive, persistent outcomes.

■ The 1% Rule

If Brian Arthur explained why dominant firms rise, Hendrik Bessembinder proved the lopsided nature of the market. His research shows most stocks perform no better than Treasury bills. There is no "normal distribution" in performance.
Our task is the relentless pursuit of the 1% of companies that truly matter. Similarly, less than 1% of available information is significant. If I had simply followed Moore’s Law with conviction since 1983, little else would have mattered.

■ Looking Forward, Outward, and Upward
Investing requires understanding evolution, emerging worlds, and corporate culture. It requires thinking from First Principles.
We must be willing to engage with those smarter than us—not just economists, but historians and political theorists. This offers far more value than the commentary of hedge fund titans.

I leave you with a thought from the late Hans Rosling:

"Fundamental improvements are changing the world, but they are too slow or too small to be news. This is the secret, silent miracle of human progress."

The goal of a great investor is to find those silent miracles.