果然不出所料

At this point in time, 55 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q4 2024. Of these 55 companies, 37 have issued negative EPS guidance and 18 have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q4 2024 is 67% (37 out of 55), which is above the 5-year average of 58% and above the 10-year average of 62%.

For the third quarter, S&P 500 companies are reporting year-over-year growth in earnings of 5.1% and year-over-year growth in revenues of 5.2%.
For Q4 2024, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 12.7% and revenue growth of 4.8%.
For CY 2024, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 9.3% and revenue growth of 5.0%.
For Q1 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 13.0% and revenue growth of 5.3%.
For Q2 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 12.2% and revenue growth of 5.5%.
For CY 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 15.1% and revenue growth of 5.7%.

Q4已经被砍到不足13%了，曾经接近18%。按照今年的趋势会继续向下，也许全年最终会从最初的12%下降到低于9%。现在看最高的四季度最终也不见得能维持12%。

并且2025的Q1,Q2都不得不下调了。

分析师的工作真简单，先按照吹牛需要定个目标，然后画直线描点，所有描点就是他们的预期，为最终牛皮目标服务。现实打脸就上调后面还看不到的季度。玩不下去了就一起抱着自由落体，反正仓位的钱都不是自己的。