TSLA 估值模型

TSLA这家公司风险很大，但回报也有很大空间。关健就是它能否实现自动驾驶和人型机机器人的长远目标。投资TSLA必须基于这个信仰，否则最好别长持。

这里分享一下TSLA 的估值模型。对与TSLA这样的成长型公司，我们不能仅仅简单的用明年的PE来估值。在这里，我用了DCF（discount cash flow)来估算。如果你对DCF不熟悉，可以问chatGPT. 其它的方法比如说用EBITDA会比较激进。我不用EBITDA是想尽量保守一点，同时对TSLA 未来的营业也尽量把目标放低一点

我把它分成2部份

1: 假设TSLA只是一家EV公司。The purpose here is to come up with a baseline value estimate. 也就是说，如果TSLA股价掉到这里，那它将是被大大低估。The basic assumptions here

   a: TSLA will grow its EV and energe sales by 22-25% per year until 2029 for a total of 5million cars in 2029. This is a much lower target than the 20M cars Tsla once promised. Also, the global car sales is expected to reach 90M by 2029, so I think 5M cars is a very conservative estimate

  b: TSLA can continue to grow its gross margin and operating margin. One reason TSLA has gone up 30% after last earning report is that its gross margin has improved significantly and people believe TSLA can continue improve it. 这个假设需要在未来的2-4个季度里去不断的验证。

  c:  根据这些假设，TSLA 2029 年的EPS大概是$10 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速32%。我们可以保守的给它PE32 （也就是说 PEG= 1），如此下来 TSLA股价大概在2029会达到 $320  

2: 第二部份我们把RoboTaxi的业务加上。

   a: It is very hard to estimate the RoboTaxi business potential, Here I just throw some rough estimate. But looking at the final number, it suggest somewhere around $12B RoboTaxi revenue for Tsla in 2029. I think this number is "conservative", considering Uber+lyft alone is expected to generate close to $100B revenue from ride sharing by 2029.

  b; I did put a much high operating margin for RoboTaxi, starting from 50% and grow to 75%, given this is a software business. This is still lower than optimistic wall street estimate of 80%. But i think this number is a bit high. However, since my revenue estimate is very conservative, hopefully, these 2 cancel each other.

  c: 真正的RoboTaxi商业模式其实都在瞎猜。但我觉得，如果TSLA在2029年连Uber+lyft的1/10都做不到，那这个业务也不会有前途的。

  d: 如果我们把RoboTaxi这部份加上去，TSLA在2029年的EPS大概是$13 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速40%。基于这个假设，我把它的PE设在50 （PEG = 1.25）。如此下来 TSLA股价大概在2029会达到 $650  

终和起来，TSLA股价大概在2029 最保守估价$320，但很有可能达到 $650。利用DCF model，我们假设discount rate 是15%，这样的话TSLA在2024年的价值应该在$160 到 $320 区间。$160 就是你不太相信TSLA会在RoboTaxi 上成功。$320 则是你相信在2029年TSLA能够打造出一定规模的RoboTaxi 业务。

What happened after 2029, well, Optimus will be the next growth stimulus that provides another 2x-5x value creation. That one is so far fetched so I decide not to estimate it.