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11/04 Home Sales Reach 14-Year Low in the US [As Is]

dindindon 2024-11-04 08:17:16 ( reads)

Home Sales Reach 14-Year Low in the US   [As Is]
Posted Nov 4, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.

图表由 Martin Armstrong 提供 chart courtesy Martin Armstrong。

原始图表全尺寸链接 origional chart  link

I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

 

跟帖(7)

金9金

2024-11-04 08:45:17

发现很多比较远的新屋群都是买了没人住, 人在想什么.

Lisland_2013

2024-11-04 08:51:03

类似的事在国内已经发生很多年了。

楚怀沙

2024-11-04 08:56:59

他关于repo市场的预测已经被证伪。这个关于recession的预测倒是很可能最终成真

dindindon

2024-11-04 09:08:49

阿姆斯特朗是一个有争议性的人物,瑕不掩瑜

playForever

2024-11-04 09:30:48

9月联储减息了 0.5%,结果10年/20年的利息涨了 0.75%,更贷不了款买房了。房价/房租太高,得跌。

playForever

2024-11-04 09:36:56

长期利息低于 3% 时代已过了,今后几年买房做房东会不如买中长期债券,Muni,和高红利股。

与庄共舞

2024-11-04 12:54:43

高房价,高利率,不明白怎么会这么多人炒房?