FT：中国二线城市的房地产陷阱

中国二线城市的房地产陷阱

    中国二线城市才是重点所在。重庆、南京和武汉等城市的发展速度比北京和上海更快，这些城市的居民对自己的收入更乐观，也更有可能购置大件商品。

如今，中国已是世界最大的建筑市场。因此对房地产投资者而言，应该进军二线城市，对吧？不，瑞信(Credit Suisse)表示，这是一个价值陷阱。

其中的逻辑推理相当简单明了。二线城市的住宅建设正在导致住宅存量供应过剩和地价泡沫——这两个现象都对开放商的利润率造成了下行压力。而且，这还是在货币政策收紧和正在多个城市试行的遏制房地产投机措施没有在全国范围内推广的情况下。

现有的证据相当令人信服。

有关供应过剩这一点，瑞信统计了住宅存量，然后除以需求，由此算出过去三年里建成的住宅需要多长时间才能售完。

在毗邻香港、从零起步的中国的繁荣城市深圳，住宅储备应该只需一年便能售完——是调查中售罄速度最快的城市。但在东北部的另一个港口城市大连，这个数字是7.5年，而武汉则需多达8年。

关于地价泡沫的计算也很简单——相比于房价，地价的上涨速度有多快？在一些城市，差距相当明显。例如，2010年武汉房价涨幅不到10%，但地价上涨了约30%。似乎开发商正在生产要素方面付出过高的成本，推动部分城市的利润率成为负数。

为方便起见，瑞信总结了投资者应该避开的十大二线城市：武汉，沈阳，济南，长春，太原，合肥，长沙，海口，重庆，天津。

 

英文对照

                                                        China’s Tier 2 property trap

      China’s tier 2 cities are where it’s at. Cities like Chongqing, Nanjing and Wuhan are growing faster then Beijing and Shanghai, while their residents are more optimistic about their income and more likely to buy big ticket items.

And now China is the world’s top market for construction. So for property investors – tier 2 is the place to be, right? No, says Credit Suisse, it’s a value trap.

The logic is pretty straight-forward. Residential construction in tier 2 cities is leading to an oversupply of stock and frothy land prices – both of which put downward pressure on developers margins. And that’s before tightening measures and property speculation curbs – currently being trialled in various cities – get rolled out across the board.

The evidence is pretty compelling.

On oversupply, Credit Suisse looked at the the housing stock and divided it by the demand – thus coming up with a calculation of how many years it will take for housing built in the last three years to be sold.

In Shenzhen – China’s booming city-built-from-nothing on the border with Hong Kong – the housing backlog should be cleared in just one year – the quickest rate in the survey. But in Dalian – another port port city in China’s northeast – the figure is 7.5 years. In Wuhan, it’s up to eight years.

For frothy land prices the calculations are pretty simple – how fast are land prices rising compared to property prices? In some cities the divergence is pretty stark. In Wuhan, for example, property prices rose less than 10 per cent in 2010. Land prices, however, rose around 30 per cent. Developers it seems, are paying too much for the ingredients, which is pushing margins in some cities into the negative.

Credit Suisse handily sums it all up with a ranking of the top 10 tier 2 cities to avoid: (See picture)