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再说说为什么Hedging is a better strategy at this point

三心三意 2024-12-07 09:51:29 ( reads)

Elliot wave can NOT predict the future, but it can help you make adjustment based on market movement

1: In this chart, we "should" be in wave 5, and standard Elliot wave theoy is that wave 5 is normally the weakest impluse wave, and only has .618 to .782 extension. If we take this guidance, it normally land QQQ in the red box i posted earier. At this point, I am more inclined to believe this is indeed wave 5 because we have less volume, more volatility, and also RSI divergence in this wave, as compared to the wave 3, all of these charatcers fitting the wave 5 description

2: However, stock market always does unexpected. There is a small chance that we are still in wave 3, ie, wave 3 did not end on July and are extended to even today. In this case (ie, if QQQ does decide to go through an extended wave 3), it would rise "significantly" higher than 550 (maybe in 580-600) before having large correction

So, buying hedging here could protect the situation where it does complete wave 5 and start long awaited correction, but does not elimiate the chance to enjoy another huge run up if we extend beyond 550

I know this contradicts to our intuition, but have been practicing elliot wave for 10 years, it has taught me never to predict the market, but to constantly adjust our assesement of market based on the movement. 

跟帖(17)

BrightLine

2024-12-07 09:58:13

牛,有理论有策略,这是指数吧。对于个股怎么办?

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:03:19

波浪理论 也 apply to 个股。 一般来说大流量,大型股都会多多少少follow波浪

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:05:24

这一次付多少税我都要清掉个股,哈哈,明年一月份?只留下指数

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:12:03

看看个股的例子(这可不是马后炮,我在11月中就发了这个)

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:13:40

所以你说要等300以下, 我当时认为近期可能性不大

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:17:46

对,你说过,我当时觉得它涨得太快,总得回调一下吧,就错过了,哈哈

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:16:20

我记得你说过,我也准备建仓,当时被你robotaxi发布后的理论吓到了没进去。后来到了300觉得太快会回调就彻底错过了,

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:20:28

对,roboxTaxi 是发生在10月。但是在随后的财报会议上有了明确的业务指引。特斯拉这波大涨(1浪)是从那天开始的

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:21:41

只能说明我心理没准备好,研究没跟上,哈哈

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:20:30

不过我这次跟你的NVDA, 可一点也没犹豫,希望能到160,哈哈,我NVDA的仓位已经有亚麻本金的一半

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:26:21

我觉得你NVDA还是有点激进。我还在耐心的等待130 或者以下加最后一笔仓

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:27:40

好,不再加仓,等130以下再加,哈哈

三心三意

2024-12-07 10:23:09

如果你看上面的波浪结构,我是在2浪回调时把那一半股份全部买回。这也是我为什么鼓励大千在4浪回调时加仓(而不是抛掉)

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:24:40

对,很佩服,记得你当时买回。学习了,谢谢,我的习惯是逢低进货。有时要顺势加仓,哈哈

start2020

2024-12-07 10:18:56

仓位大,若是有三倍,是要hedge,有说用2% 仓位。

BrightLine

2024-12-07 10:23:42

我会把3倍近期全部清仓,哈哈

start2020

2024-12-07 10:29:10

我换了10%fngu到fngs,锁住了本金在fngs,希望大佬们分享hedge。还在看。