乌克兰正在掌握节奏
Ukraine Is Setting the Pace
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Vinnytsia – Since the so-called “ceasefire” went into effect, air raid alerts have remained active in several regions of Ukraine due to guided bombs over Zaporizhzhia and other Russian vectors – mostly drones – aimed at the regions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kherson. Ukrainian residential, commercial, and industrial infrastructure has been hit in nearly all these oblasts, immediately undermining Vladimir Putin’s promises.
The Russian “truce” involved launching 108 long-range drones and three other missiles of different types at peaceful Ukrainian cities, which, like Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, observed a day of mourning yesterday for the deaths caused the previous day by Russian bombs. While rescue crews searched through the rubble to recover victims now exceeding 50 in the former capital and 20 in the latter, other Ukrainian civilian buildings were similarly damaged. Around 11:00 a.m. yesterday, a Russian drone crashed into a kindergarten in the center of Sumy, killing a security guard and injuring two women. Rescuers also reported 17 injured in Chernihiv, 5 dead and 37 injured in Poltava, and another 5 dead and 12 injured in Kramatorsk. More broadly, at midday yesterday, President Zelensky announced that Ukraine would decide on the actions to take in response to as many as 1,820 Russian violations of the ceasefire within just twelve hours.
Beyond the official statements, little has actually changed. For at least three days, a large-scale Russian strike campaign has been ongoing against Ukraine’s transportation network, targeting logistics to hit the most active areas. In Kharkiv alone, the Russians have attacked more than a dozen gas stations. Other targets include regions such as Kyiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk, where increasingly sophisticated V2U drones with AI-assisted targeting capabilities have also struck tracks, locomotives, and trains. Disrupting the multimodal interchange hubs and transition points between thermal and electric mobility – which facilitate Ukrainian logistics – represents a fierce attempt to cripple the ability to repair and rotate vehicles and personnel that help causing significant damage to the Russian Federation.
In April, Ukrainian drone strikes over 20 km doubled from March and quadrupled from February, while the number of tasks completed by robotic systems increased by the same margin. Concerning interceptor drones, in the first four months of 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received twice as many as in 2025.
These figures come from the latest report by the Kyiv Ministry of Defense on the first quarter of 2026, clearly illustrating the current situation and forecasting an even stronger performance by Ukrainian unmanned forces as early as May.
This technological edge has now solidified, with Ukraine consistently leading in technological and operational interdiction. Meanwhile, for over five months, Russia has been losing more human material than it can recruit and more territory than it attempts to capture.
Labeling Russian attacks as “retaliation” or “random terrorism” would be an oversimplification. On the ground, Russia continues pushing in several sectors, but given the balance of cost, depth, logistics, and technological adaptation, Ukraine now appears capable of setting the pace of innovation.
While Moscow prepares to celebrate the imperial liturgy, displaying the hammer and sickle and Zs made of St. George’s ribbon, Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater are suffering net losses of territory and personnel, the likes of which have not been seen since August 2024. The fury against Ukrainian logistics reveals precisely this weakness. The Russian Federation is targeting these nodes not because it controls the pace of the war but because it fears it has lost it.
Since Ukraine transformed drones from a tactical tool to a national operational system, Russian depth has become vulnerable, and Ukrainian depth has become the target of systemic retaliation.
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乌克兰正在掌握节奏
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
文尼察 —— 自所谓的“停火”生效以来，由于扎波罗热地区持续遭受制导炸弹袭击，以及其他来自俄罗斯方向（主要是无人机）的打击，乌克兰多个地区的防空警报始终未曾解除。这些攻击主要针对哈尔科夫、苏梅、顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克、波尔塔瓦以及赫尔松等州。几乎在所有这些州，乌克兰的居民、商业和工业基础设施都遭到打击，立即撕毁了弗拉基米尔·普京的承诺。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰特尔诺皮尔报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
俄罗斯的“休战”包括向和平的乌克兰城市发射了108架远程无人机和另外三枚不同类型的导弹袭击，像扎波罗热和第聂伯罗一样，昨日为前一天俄方炸弹造成的死难举行了哀悼日。救援队在废墟中搜寻遇难者之际，前首都（扎波罗热）死亡人数已经超过50人、第聂伯罗超过20人，其他乌克兰民用建筑亦遭类似破坏。昨日上午约11点，一架俄方无人机坠入苏梅市中心的一所幼儿园，造成一名保安死亡，另有两名女性受伤。救援人员还报告切尔尼戈夫17人受伤，波尔塔瓦5人死亡37人受伤，克拉马托尔斯克5人死亡12人受伤。更广泛地范围来看，泽连斯基总统昨日中午宣布，乌克兰将对短短十二小时内多达1,820起俄方违反停火的行为决定采取何种应对措施。
（视频：我在欧洲新闻台的报道 ——版权所有，euronews）
官方声明之外，实际变化很少。至少三天来，俄方一直针对乌克兰的交通网络实施大规模的攻击行动，袭击物流系统以打击最活跃的区域。仅在哈尔科夫，俄军就攻击了十余座加油站。其他目标还包括基辅、赫尔松、扎波罗热、顿涅茨克、苏梅和第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克等地区。在这些地区，配备AI辅助瞄准功能、技术不断精湛的V2U无人机还袭击了铁轨、机车和列车。破坏多式联运枢纽以及热力与电力机动之间的转换节点（这些是支撑乌克兰物流的关键），是俄罗斯试图削弱乌克兰修复摧与车辆及人员轮换能力的猛烈措施，这些能力正式乌克兰能够对俄罗斯联邦造成重大损害的关键所在。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰扎波罗热一次俄军针对民用目标的重击后现场报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
四月，乌克兰无人机在20公里以外的打击次数较三月翻倍，较二月则增长四倍，机器人系统完成的任务数量也呈相同的增长趋势。关于拦截无人机，2026年前四个月乌克兰武装部队获得的数量是2025年的两倍。
这些数据来自基辅国防部关于2026年第一季度的最新报告，清楚描绘了当前形势，并预测乌克兰无人力量在五月将有更强表现。
这一技术优势已然巩固，乌克兰在技术与作战拦截方面持续领先。与此同时，五个多月来，俄罗斯在人力上损失超过其征募能力，在领土上损失超过其试图夺取的面积，这种情况前所未有。
将俄方袭击标签为“报复”或“随机恐怖主义”未免过于简单。在战场上，俄罗斯仍在若干战区推进，但考虑到成本、纵深、后勤与技术适应性的综合平衡，乌克兰如今显得能掌控创新节奏。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰帕夫洛赫拉德一次俄军针对民用基础设施的攻击后数现场报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
当莫斯科准备庆祝帝国礼仪、展示镰刀和锤子以及由圣乔治丝带拼成的Z标时，乌克兰战区的俄罗斯部队正遭受自2024年8月以来罕见的领土与人员净损失。对乌克兰后勤的疯狂打击恰恰暴露了这种弱点。俄联邦之所以针对这些节点，并非因为它掌控了战争节奏，而是因为它担心自己已失去对节奏的掌控。
自乌克兰将无人机从战术工具转变为国家级作战体系以来，俄方纵深变得脆弱，而乌克兰纵深则成为系统性报复的目标。
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