这里的假设有个致命缺陷

If you are about to retire in 2000 with $10M, the 20y treasure at that time is 6.5%. A peson with any sanity would put at least 30% in treasure with such high rate after retirement. Even if he put rest of 70% in QQQ, he would

1: By 2022 (worst time), gain 13% in treasure and lose 80% in QQQ = $5.4M

2: By 2007, gain 45% in treausre, and lose 50% in QQQ = $7.8M in portfolio

3: By 2015, gain 100% in treasure, and make even in QQQ = $13M in portfolio