查了查，股票没有跟上原油价，主要分析师认为原油跳高可能是短时间的
胡雪盐8
2026-03-06 19:30:48
( reads)
If oil averages $90/bbl for the remainder of 2026, Exxon’s valuation is expected to shift as follows:
- Earnings Sensitivity: For every $1 increase in the price of oil, Exxon typically sees a $0.25 improvement in EPS.
- Revised Fair Value: While current conservative models peg fair value at $128–$132, sustained $90 oil could push this closer to $172+.
- 2030 Catalyst Acceleration: High prices would allow Exxon to hit its goal of adding $25 billion in annual earnings much earlier than its 2030 target, especially as it ramps up low-cost production in Guyana (875k bpd) and the Permian (1.8M boe/d).
Chevron's business model is particularly sensitive to the $90/bbl threshold, where profit margins don't just increase—they "double."
- Profit Doubling: At $70/bbl, Chevron nets roughly $20/bbl in profit (against a $50 breakeven). At $90/bbl, that profit jumps to $40/bbl, doubling the company’s underlying earnings per barrel.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF) Surge: If oil averages $90, Chevron could exceed its projected $12.5 billion FCF expansion for 2026, providing massive capital for its targeted $10–$20 billion in annual share repurchases.
- Revised Price Targets: While the current average analyst target is $185.92, high-end estimates already account for this scenario with targets as high as $212.