Yahoo news has an articles from Insider Monkey about how to count each state votes towards Trump and Biden. The conclusion is that Trump has much larger chance to win than polls number suggests. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/win-presidency-001318552.html I am making three points here: 1. The articles does not count the votes correctly, which is a low-level error. 2. The article count most of battlegound states towards Trump. 3. Even with all counting from the article, winning Pennsyvania will give both side win, but it has been predicted by Fivethirtyeight to Biden win with 6.3 points difference. First counting the votes correct: Hawaii has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden Maine has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden Texas has 38 electoral votes, instead of 36, to trump Washington has 12 eletoral votes, instead of 8, to biden From Trump: 258 – Biden:253, change to Overall : Trump: 260 – Biden:259 + 20 (PA no attribution) = 538, which is correct number. The battleground states: Fivethirtyeight 2020 predicts Trump loss, but Insider Monkey can predict either Trump win or loss. Florida: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote. Trump wins, 29 votes here. Georgia: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points. Trump wins, 16 votes here. (according to the different prediction direction of insidermonkey and fivethirtyeight) Iowa: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points. Trump wins, 6 votes here. Michigan: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points. Trump loss, 16 votes here. Minnesota: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points. Trump loss, 10 votes here. North Carolina: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points. Trump win, 15 votes here. Ohio: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points, Trump win, 18 votes here. Pennsylvania: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points, 20 votes here. Wisconsin: Fivet Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points, Trump loss, 10 votes here. overall votes from battlegrounds states: 140 votes, where Insider Monkey counts Florida, Geogia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio towards Trump, which has overall 84 votes, counts Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin towards Biden, which has 36 votes. Remove all the votes from the battleground states, it becomes: Trump: 176 – Biden:223. The attached is the list of states with poll number and how Inside Monkey count the votes from the original article, and with my comments with prefix of "correction". 1. Alabama Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points Actual result: Trump won by 27.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points Trump: 9 - Biden:0 2. Alaska Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points Actual result: Trump won by 14.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 7 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points Trump: 12 - Biden:0 3. Arizona Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points Actual result: Trump won by 3.5 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 2.7 points (correction: Trump loss by 3.9 points, 11 votes here) Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.9 points Trump: 23 - Biden:0 4. Arkansas Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points Actual result: Trump won by 26.9 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.5 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 26.6 points Trump: 29 - Biden:0 5. California Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points Actual result: Trump lost by 30.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.7 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.3 points Trump: 29 - Biden:55 6. Colorado Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points Actual result: Trump lost by 4.9 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.1 points Trump: 29 - Biden:64 7. Connecticut Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points Actual result: Trump lost by 13.6 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 21.8 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.3 points Trump: 29 - Biden:71 8. Delaware Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points Actual result: Trump lost by 11.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.2 points Trump: 29 - Biden:74 9. District of Columbia Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points Actual result: Trump lost by 86.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points Trump: 29 - Biden:77 10. Florida** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points Actual result: Trump won by 1.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote (Even though Biden has the edge right now, I think this is temporary and Trump will close the gap in the next 3 weeks. I think Trump has a 50.1% probability of winning Florida) Trump: 58 - Biden:77 11. Georgia Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points (correction: this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight) Trump: 74 - Biden:77 12. Hawaii Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 42.3 points Trump: 74 - Biden:80 (correction: HI has 4 votes, instead of 3) 13. Idaho Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.8 points (correction: Fivethirtyeight does predict Trump Win by large points, this does not change attribution) Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 36.5 points Trump: 78 - Biden:80 14. Illinois Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 23.5 points Trump: 78 - Biden:100 15. Indiana Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.3 points (correction: Trump wins by 11.6 points, but this does not change the attribution) Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18.6 points Trump: 89 - Biden:100 16. Iowa Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points (correction: this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight) Trump: 95 - Biden:100 17. Kansas Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points Trump: 101 - Biden:100 18. Kentucky Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.8 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.7 points Trump: 109 - Biden:100 19. Louisiana Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.6 points Trump: 117 - Biden:100 20. Maine Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state: Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points Trump: 118 - Biden:103 (correction: ME should have 4 votes, intead of 3) 21. Maryland Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31 points Trump: 118 - Biden:113 22. Massachusetts Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points Trump: 118 – Biden:124 23. Michigan** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks) Trump: 118 – Biden:140 24. Minnesota** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks) Trump: 118 – Biden:150 25. Mississippi Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points Trump: 124 – Biden:150 26. Missouri Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points Trump: 134 – Biden:150 27. Montana Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points Trump: 137 – Biden:150 28. Nebraska Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by district, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state: Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 25 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points Trump: 142 – Biden:150 29. Nevada Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points Trump: 142 – Biden:156 30. New Hampshire Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points Trump: 142 – Biden:160 31. New Jersey Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points Trump: 142 – Biden:174 32. New Mexico Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points Trump: 142 – Biden:179 33. New York Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points Trump: 142 – Biden:208 34. North Carolina** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo) Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC). Trump: 157 – Biden:208 35. North Dakota Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points Trump: 160 – Biden:208 36. Ohio** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.) Trump: 178 – Biden:208 37. Oklahoma Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points Trump: 185 – Biden:208 38. Oregon Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points Trump: 185 – Biden:215 39. Pennsylvania** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article). Trump: 185 – Biden:215 (correction: No attribution here, 20 votes) 40. Rhode Island Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points Trump: 185 – Biden:219 41. South Carolina Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points Trump: 194 – Biden:219 42. South Dakota Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points Trump: 197 – Biden:219 43. Tennessee Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points Trump: 208 – Biden:219 44. Texas Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one) Trump: 244 – Biden:219 (Texas has 38 votes, instead of 36 votes) 45. Utah Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points Trump: 250 – Biden:219 46. Vermont Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points Trump: 250 – Biden:222 47. Virginia Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points Trump: 250 – Biden:235 48. Washington Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points Trump: 250 – Biden:243 (correction: WA has 12 votes here, instead of 8) 49. West Virginia Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 45.1 points Trump: 255 – Biden:243 50. Wisconsin** Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden) Trump: 255 – Biden:253 51. Wyoming Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 39.6 points Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 49 points Trump: 258 – Biden:253 |