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去世率Case Fatality Rate (CFR)用来表示COVID-19的严重程度,它是这样计算的:用累计去世人数D除以累计确诊人数C,即CFR = D / C ,然后取百分比。可见,CFR其实准确表示的是COVID-19疫情的最终去世率。然而,在盛行阶段,CFR会比最终的数据小很多,因为分母C的增加可能远大于分子D的增加,对实时严重程度也就可能低估很多。另一个似乎更接近实时严重程度的比率是Closed Case Fatality Rate (CCFR),它用累计结案(Closed Case)的人数F做分母,即累计去世人数D加上累计康复人数R。因为所有确诊最终只有去世或康复两种可能,CCFR比较大程度上也反映了疫情的可康复性,其计算公式是
CCFR=累计去世数/(累计去世数+累计康复数),或CCFR = D / F = D / (D + R) 取百分比.
实时CCFR(姑且称为动态去世率)从更严重的方面反映疫情的程度,最终也将等于CFR。上面的定义及下表的数据世界各国(多于1000确诊)取自https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/,美国取自https://ncov2019.live/data 这里加入了CFR和CCFR,并对CFR从大到小排序(世界和美国总数在第一行)。
欧美许多国家只查重症,所得到的确诊人数乘以5是大致的总感染人数,因为感染后约80%为轻度患者。这样得到的最终去世率似乎是以重症确诊为基数,而不是所有感染者为基数的去世率,应该不低于20%。
4月26日
动态去世率:全世界的动态去世率CCFR从3月29日起就在21%左右(之前的数据没注意),4月26日降为19.%;全美31.8%,各州暂变为未知.
4月27日
全世界确诊超过3米,美国超过1米,纽约过不了2天超过30万。下面的两表为今日数据,将暂时不再更新。
美国
州 |
确诊 |
去世 |
康复 |
去世率 |
动态去世率 |
USA Total |
1,010,356 |
56,797 |
138,990 |
5.62 |
29.01 |
Michigan |
38,210 |
3,407 |
Unknown |
8.92 |
#VALUE! |
Connecticut |
25,997 |
2,012 |
Unknown |
7.74 |
#VALUE! |
New York |
298,004 |
22,623 |
Unknown |
7.59 |
#VALUE! |
Minnesota |
3,816 |
286 |
Unknown |
7.49 |
#VALUE! |
Louisiana |
27,068 |
1,740 |
Unknown |
6.43 |
#VALUE! |
Oklahoma |
3,280 |
197 |
Unknown |
6.01 |
#VALUE! |
Indiana |
15,961 |
932 |
Unknown |
5.84 |
#VALUE! |
Washington |
13,686 |
765 |
Unknown |
5.59 |
#VALUE! |
Vermont |
855 |
47 |
Unknown |
5.5 |
#VALUE! |
New Jersey |
111,188 |
6,044 |
Unknown |
5.44 |
#VALUE! |
Massachusetts |
56,462 |
3,003 |
Unknown |
5.32 |
#VALUE! |
Kentucky |
4,146 |
213 |
Unknown |
5.14 |
#VALUE! |
Colorado |
13,879 |
706 |
Unknown |
5.09 |
#VALUE! |
Maine |
1,023 |
51 |
Unknown |
4.99 |
#VALUE! |
Maryland |
19,487 |
945 |
Unknown |
4.85 |
#VALUE! |
District Of Columbia |
3,892 |
185 |
Unknown |
4.75 |
#VALUE! |
Nevada |
4,690 |
219 |
Unknown |
4.67 |
#VALUE! |
Wisconsin |
6,081 |
281 |
Unknown |
4.62 |
#VALUE! |
Ohio |
16,325 |
753 |
Unknown |
4.61 |
#VALUE! |
Illinois |
45,883 |
1,983 |
Unknown |
4.32 |
#VALUE! |
Pennsylvania |
43,155 |
1,860 |
|
4.31 |
|
Missouri |
7,239 |
300 |
Unknown |
4.14 |
#VALUE! |
Georgia |
24,225 |
994 |
Unknown |
4.1 |
#VALUE! |
Arizona |
6,716 |
275 |
Unknown |
4.09 |
#VALUE! |
California |
45,006 |
1,776 |
Unknown |
3.95 |
#VALUE! |
Oregon |
2,354 |
92 |
Unknown |
3.91 |
#VALUE! |
Mississippi |
6,094 |
229 |
Unknown |
3.76 |
#VALUE! |
Kansas |
3,296 |
122 |
Unknown |
3.7 |
#VALUE! |
New Mexico |
2,823 |
104 |
Unknown |
3.68 |
|
North Carolina |
9,415 |
336 |
Unknown |
3.57 |
#VALUE! |
Guam |
142 |
5 |
Unknown |
3.52 |
#VALUE! |
Alabama |
6,539 |
228 |
Unknown |
3.49 |
#VALUE! |
Florida |
32,138 |
1,088 |
Unknown |
3.39 |
#VALUE! |
West Virginia |
1,063 |
36 |
Unknown |
3.39 |
#VALUE! |
Virginia |
13,535 |
458 |
Unknown |
3.38 |
#VALUE! |
South Carolina |
5,613 |
177 |
Unknown |
3.15 |
#VALUE! |
Montana |
449 |
14 |
Unknown |
3.12 |
#VALUE! |
New Hampshire |
1,938 |
60 |
Unknown |
3.1 |
#VALUE! |
Idaho |
1,917 |
58 |
Unknown |
3.03 |
#VALUE! |
Rhode Island |
7,708 |
233 |
Unknown |
3.02 |
#VALUE! |
Delaware |
4,162 |
125 |
Unknown |
3 |
#VALUE! |
Hawaii |
607 |
16 |
Unknown |
2.64 |
#VALUE! |
Texas |
25,516 |
672 |
Unknown |
2.63 |
#VALUE! |
Alaska |
345 |
9 |
Unknown |
2.61 |
#VALUE! |
Iowa |
5,868 |
127 |
Unknown |
2.16 |
#VALUE! |
North Dakota |
942 |
19 |
Unknown |
2.02 |
#VALUE! |
Tennessee |
9,918 |
184 |
Unknown |
1.86 |
#VALUE! |
Nebraska |
3,358 |
56 |
Unknown |
1.67 |
#VALUE! |
Arkansas |
3,069 |
51 |
Unknown |
1.66 |
#VALUE! |
Wyoming |
520 |
7 |
Unknown |
1.35 |
#VALUE! |
Utah |
4,233 |
41 |
Unknown |
0.97 |
#VALUE! |
South Dakota |
2,245 |
11 |
Unknown |
0.49 |
#VALUE! |
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世界
国家地区 |
总确诊 |
总去世 |
总康复 |
去世率 |
动态去世率 |
World |
3,064,147 |
211,533 |
922,276 |
6.9 |
18.66 |
Belgium |
46,687 |
7,207 |
10,878 |
15.44 |
39.85 |
France |
165,842 |
23,293 |
45,513 |
14.05 |
33.85 |
Italy |
199,414 |
26,977 |
66,624 |
13.53 |
28.82 |
UK |
157,149 |
21,092 |
N/A |
13.42 |
#VALUE! |
Algeria |
3,517 |
432 |
1,558 |
12.28 |
21.71 |
Sweden |
18,926 |
2,274 |
1,005 |
12.02 |
69.35 |
Netherlands |
38,245 |
4,518 |
N/A |
11.81 |
#VALUE! |
Hungary |
2,583 |
280 |
498 |
10.84 |
35.99 |
Spain |
229,422 |
23,521 |
120,832 |
10.25 |
16.29 |
Mexico |
15,529 |
1,434 |
9,086 |
9.23 |
13.63 |
Indonesia |
9,096 |
765 |
1,151 |
8.41 |
39.93 |
Egypt |
4,782 |
337 |
1,236 |
7.05 |
21.42 |
Brazil |
66,501 |
4,543 |
31,142 |
6.83 |
12.73 |
Philippines |
7,777 |
511 |
932 |
6.57 |
35.41 |
Iran |
91,472 |
5,806 |
70,933 |
6.35 |
7.57 |
Slovenia |
1,402 |
83 |
221 |
5.92 |
27.3 |
Switzerland |
29,164 |
1,665 |
22,200 |
5.71 |
6.98 |
Romania |
11,339 |
641 |
3,141 |
5.65 |
16.95 |
USA |
1,010,356 |
56,797 |
138,990 |
5.62 |
29.01 |
Ireland |
19,648 |
1,102 |
9,233 |
5.61 |
10.66 |
China |
82,836 |
4,633 |
77,555 |
5.59 |
5.64 |
Canada |
48,500 |
2,707 |
18,268 |
5.58 |
12.91 |
Greece |
2,534 |
136 |
577 |
5.37 |
19.07 |
Argentina |
4,003 |
197 |
1,140 |
4.92 |
14.73 |
Denmark |
8,698 |
427 |
5,959 |
4.91 |
6.69 |
Iraq |
1,847 |
88 |
1,286 |
4.76 |
6.4 |
Poland |
11,902 |
562 |
2,466 |
4.72 |
18.56 |
North Macedonia |
1,399 |
65 |
553 |
4.65 |
10.52 |
Colombia |
5,597 |
253 |
1,210 |
4.52 |
17.29 |
Dominican Republic |
6,293 |
282 |
993 |
4.48 |
22.12 |
Bulgaria |
1,363 |
58 |
206 |
4.26 |
21.97 |
Finland |
4,695 |
193 |
2,500 |
4.11 |
7.17 |
Cuba |
1,389 |
56 |
525 |
4.03 |
9.64 |
Morocco |
4,120 |
162 |
695 |
3.93 |
18.9 |
Germany |
158,758 |
6,126 |
114,500 |
3.86 |
5.08 |
Portugal |
24,027 |
928 |
1,357 |
3.86 |
40.61 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
1,565 |
60 |
659 |
3.83 |
8.34 |
Austria |
15,274 |
549 |
12,362 |
3.59 |
4.25 |
Cameroon |
1,705 |
58 |
805 |
3.4 |
6.72 |
Afghanistan |
1,703 |
57 |
220 |
3.35 |
20.58 |
India |
29,451 |
939 |
7,137 |
3.19 |
11.63 |
Estonia |
1,647 |
50 |
233 |
3.04 |
17.67 |
Czechia |
7,445 |
223 |
2,826 |
3 |
7.31 |
Nigeria |
1,337 |
40 |
255 |
2.99 |
13.56 |
Moldova |
3,481 |
102 |
925 |
2.93 |
9.93 |
Croatia |
2,039 |
59 |
1,166 |
2.89 |
4.82 |
Ecuador |
23,240 |
663 |
1,557 |
2.85 |
29.86 |
Lithuania |
1,449 |
41 |
474 |
2.83 |
7.96 |
Panama |
6,021 |
167 |
455 |
2.77 |
26.85 |
Peru |
28,699 |
782 |
8,425 |
2.72 |
8.49 |
Japan |
14,153 |
385 |
1,899 |
2.72 |
16.86 |
Norway |
7,599 |
205 |
32 |
2.7 |
86.5 |
Turkey |
112,261 |
2,900 |
33,791 |
2.58 |
7.9 |
Bangladesh |
5,913 |
152 |
131 |
2.57 |
53.71 |
Ukraine |
9,009 |
220 |
864 |
2.44 |
20.3 |
Luxembourg |
3,729 |
88 |
3,123 |
2.36 |
2.74 |
S. Korea |
10,738 |
243 |
8,764 |
2.26 |
2.7 |
Pakistan |
13,915 |
292 |
3,029 |
2.1 |
8.79 |
Serbia |
8,275 |
162 |
1,209 |
1.96 |
11.82 |
South Africa |
4,793 |
90 |
1,473 |
1.88 |
5.76 |
Thailand |
2,931 |
52 |
2,609 |
1.77 |
1.95 |
Malaysia |
5,820 |
99 |
3,957 |
1.7 |
2.44 |
Armenia |
1,808 |
29 |
848 |
1.6 |
3.31 |
Chile |
13,813 |
198 |
7,327 |
1.43 |
2.63 |
Israel |
15,555 |
204 |
7,200 |
1.31 |
2.76 |
Azerbaijan |
1,678 |
22 |
1,162 |
1.31 |
1.86 |
Slovakia |
1,381 |
18 |
403 |
1.3 |
4.28 |
New Zealand |
1,472 |
19 |
1,214 |
1.29 |
1.54 |
Australia |
6,725 |
84 |
5,602 |
1.25 |
1.48 |
Ivory Coast |
1,164 |
14 |
499 |
1.2 |
2.73 |
Russia |
87,147 |
794 |
7,346 |
0.91 |
9.75 |
Kazakhstan |
2,835 |
25 |
720 |
0.88 |
3.36 |
Saudi Arabia |
18,811 |
144 |
2,531 |
0.77 |
5.38 |
UAE |
10,839 |
82 |
2,090 |
0.76 |
3.78 |
Ghana |
1,550 |
11 |
155 |
0.71 |
6.63 |
Kuwait |
3,288 |
22 |
1,012 |
0.67 |
2.13 |
Belarus |
11,289 |
75 |
1,740 |
0.66 |
4.13 |
Guinea |
1,163 |
7 |
246 |
0.6 |
2.77 |
Iceland |
1,792 |
10 |
1,624 |
0.56 |
0.61 |
Oman |
2,049 |
10 |
364 |
0.49 |
2.67 |
Uzbekistan |
1,904 |
8 |
892 |
0.42 |
0.89 |
Hong Kong |
1,038 |
4 |
787 |
0.39 |
0.51 |
Bahrain |
2,723 |
8 |
1,218 |
0.29 |
0.65 |
Djibouti |
1,035 |
2 |
477 |
0.19 |
0.42 |
Singapore |
14,423 |
14 |
1,095 |
0.1 |
1.26 |
Qatar |
11,244 |
10 |
1,066 |
0.09 |
0.93 |
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