ThegatedliquiditiesthatFEDcreatedaresittinginthebankvaults,waitingtowashmorebaddebtsontheirbalancesheet.OBMispromisingthatanotherrescurepackegeinthe2009.Thissaysthatgovernmentcannottoleratedeflationofassetbubbletheyhavecreatedoverthelast2decades.
Anyfurtherdeflationwillcausereducedtaxreceiptsonpersonalincome,propertytax,unablementtopayforthemunibond'sprincipleandinterestsandthetotalbankruptcyo...[阅读全文]
天下纵横
随笔而已。不必当真。
博文
(2008-12-24 18:49:38)
(2008-12-19 20:31:29)
[阅读全文]
(2008-12-11 19:29:22)
Topic:Unemployment-WhyunemploymentwillhavedifferenteffectsinChinaandUS
ThepunditsinWXChavealwaysarguethatUS'srecession/depressionwillcreatehugeproblemsforChina.Sure,inthisinterlinkedglobaleconomy,Chinacannotescapethefateofrecessionorevendepression.ButstayintheUSwithoutsurveyingandanalyzingtheactualenvironmentbutsayingChinaisgoingtosuffermoreisabsurd.
Hereisthecounterargument:
IntheUS,t...[阅读全文]
ThepunditsinWXChavealwaysarguethatUS'srecession/depressionwillcreatehugeproblemsforChina.Sure,inthisinterlinkedglobaleconomy,Chinacannotescapethefateofrecessionorevendepression.ButstayintheUSwithoutsurveyingandanalyzingtheactualenvironmentbutsayingChinaisgoingtosuffermoreisabsurd.
Hereisthecounterargument:
IntheUS,t...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-11 14:27:13)
TherearerumorsaboutUSDdefaultassoonasthisadministrationleavesthepost.Idonotknowifitwillbecomeareality,fornowitisjustplausiblescenario.Assumingthisscenariowouldbetrue,mostpeoplewillbedoomed,whilethenationaldebtswillbeforfeited.Notbadthingforalongrunbutsadforthebabyboomersfortheywillhavetocontinueworkingforresttheirlife.Chaosisensuredandriotislikely.Butwhatwillbeexchangerateofofoldcurrencyandnewcurr...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-10 17:55:24)
Therewereargumentsaboutwagesintheinflationaryenvironment.Punditsarearguingthatwageswillcatchupwithinflation.Thatmaybetruein1970'sbutwillprovetobeincorrectinthenextinflationarycycle(howevershortorlongitwillbe).
Peoplewillforsureaskwhythistimeisdifferentthan1970s.Thereasonsaresimple:
Backinthe1970s,USwasamanufacturingpowerhouse.Wheninflationhitanddollardrop,thedemandforUSindustrialgoodsweres...[阅读全文]
Peoplewillforsureaskwhythistimeisdifferentthan1970s.Thereasonsaresimple:
Backinthe1970s,USwasamanufacturingpowerhouse.Wheninflationhitanddollardrop,thedemandforUSindustrialgoodsweres...[阅读全文]
(2008-11-06 20:38:03)
Obamaisfacinganunprecedentedfate,thatUSD'sdefaultmayverywellbeuponhisterm.
Carmanufacturingcompanies,insurancecompanies,creditcardcompaniesareallfacingthebaddebtsproblems.Plustheinfamoushousingsectoriscontinuingitsdownwardtrend.Thereisnosolutionforthebondrefisincemortgagebonds,studentloans,crediccardloans,andcarloansare"securitized"meaningchopped,minced,andpackagedtohavebeensoldtoinv...[阅读全文]
Carmanufacturingcompanies,insurancecompanies,creditcardcompaniesareallfacingthebaddebtsproblems.Plustheinfamoushousingsectoriscontinuingitsdownwardtrend.Thereisnosolutionforthebondrefisincemortgagebonds,studentloans,crediccardloans,andcarloansare"securitized"meaningchopped,minced,andpackagedtohavebeensoldtoinv...[阅读全文]
(2008-10-24 15:20:38)
Whatisinvestment?Howdooneinvest?Whatdooneinvest?
Therearemanypeopleandbooksaboutthistopic.Ithasneverbeenatiedsubject.
Therealprincipleofinvestingisverysimple:
1)Understandthemonetarypolicyanditsinfluences
2)Understandhoweachsectorbehavesundermonetarypolicy
3)Understandthatbasicinvestmenthumanbehavior
4)Understandbusinesscycles
5)Understandnothingwillgoupforever,aka,busi...[阅读全文]
Therearemanypeopleandbooksaboutthistopic.Ithasneverbeenatiedsubject.
Therealprincipleofinvestingisverysimple:
1)Understandthemonetarypolicyanditsinfluences
2)Understandhoweachsectorbehavesundermonetarypolicy
3)Understandthatbasicinvestmenthumanbehavior
4)Understandbusinesscycles
5)Understandnothingwillgoupforever,aka,busi...[阅读全文]
(2008-10-16 19:05:35)
Lastbubble?Weseenobubbleanymore.
Can'tsee?Can'tfeel?Well,itisthelastbubblewearefacingforaverylongtime.
Thebubble,USbondbubble,willbeburstinginnottoolongtimeframe.
Thebondbubbleisbuiltondollarbubble,whichhasnofundmentaltosupportitsdebtweightandnophysicaltreasuretosustainitssize.Thedollarbubblewillburst,whichalsomeansthebondbubblewillburstwithUSgovernmentdeclairbankruptcy.
Sure,USmay...[阅读全文]
Can'tsee?Can'tfeel?Well,itisthelastbubblewearefacingforaverylongtime.
Thebubble,USbondbubble,willbeburstinginnottoolongtimeframe.
Thebondbubbleisbuiltondollarbubble,whichhasnofundmentaltosupportitsdebtweightandnophysicaltreasuretosustainitssize.Thedollarbubblewillburst,whichalsomeansthebondbubblewillburstwithUSgovernmentdeclairbankruptcy.
Sure,USmay...[阅读全文]
(2008-10-09 13:46:16)
Themarketslideseemsnon-stoppingthatscaredmostofinvestors.Withoutknowingthemarketforces,wecanonlywatchandwonder,whereistheendofit?Peopledonotknowtheforcesthatdrivethemarket.Thedeflationaryforcesduetoassetbubbleburstarepushingtheoverleveragedcompaniesandhedgefundstode-leverage,meaningfiresalewhateverisvaluableintheirhand,thusdrivesdownthemarket.Ifpeoplehaveaclearmind,theycouldseethroughthesmokethate...[阅读全文]
(2008-10-08 15:45:53)
Inthisturbulenttime,investorsareflockingintogold.Butgoldasalastsafeheavenexistsontheplanetearth,itfaceshiddenrisksthatisunawareofbymostinvestors,probably99%ofthem.
GoldbeingtraditionallytradedasacommodityafterdelinkofUSDfromgoldbyRichardNixon,itischangingfacesduetointroductionofpapergold.GLDbeingoneofthem.
GLD,asgoldETF,isapapergold;whichinvestorsbuyonthepaperpromise.TheETFmanagementwouldb...[阅读全文]
GoldbeingtraditionallytradedasacommodityafterdelinkofUSDfromgoldbyRichardNixon,itischangingfacesduetointroductionofpapergold.GLDbeingoneofthem.
GLD,asgoldETF,isapapergold;whichinvestorsbuyonthepaperpromise.TheETFmanagementwouldb...[阅读全文]
