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如果今年45,只要存有40万,不必继续存401k,退休也够了

(2008-04-18 10:36:39) 下一个
Sounded too good to be true? 下面是专家的计算;(from Carrie Schwab).

俺总结一下:假定退休后每年要用10万(今天的钱),如果有退休金3万、social security 2万,65岁时自己需要有存款1.25米,每年从中拿4%,可以维持30年。如果你今年45,有401K存款40万,就不必再放401k了,到你65岁时,40万就会长到1.25米(假定每年8%增长率)。

我的疑问哈:
1、1.25米是今天的钱还是15年后的数?好像Schwab女士没有提及inflation哎。
2、每年增长率8%,现实吗?

不过这比以前听到的3-5粒米少多了,如果LD坚持工作到60,俺胜利早退遥遥在望。:-)

摘文:

Here's a hypothetical example. Let's say you and your wife decide you'll need $100,000 a year in income while you're retired. We'll further stipulate that you're entitled to a pension worth $30,000 a year and the two of you will collect Social Security benefits of about $20,000. So you've got to find a way to come up with about $50,000 per year. The Schwab Center for Financial Research has developed a useful way to estimate the wealth you'll need to retire on, which is worth quoting from Rande Spiegelman’s article, “Retirement Spending: The 4% Solution”:
Based on our research, we believe that if you are a conservative-to-moderate investor at retirement who wants a very high level of confidence you can maintain your standard of living and keep pace with inflation for a retirement lasting 30 years, you can follow a basic rule of thumb. The rule is this: You should shoot for a retirement portfolio approximately 25 times as large as your first-year withdrawal. This roughly translates into a 4% withdrawal rate in the first year of retirement.
In this case, 25 times $50,000 is $1.25 million. That's what you'd need, on day #1 of your retirement, in order to be reasonably confident that you can maintain your standard of living over the course of three decades.
Of course, you have 15 more years to save and invest to get to the $1.25 million. If you've got a bit more than $395,000 today, you're in pretty good shape ($395,000 earning 8% per year for 15 years would grow to just over $1.25 million).
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