大空头倒下了
牛经沧海 (2025-11-13 04:08:14) 评论 (5)牛经沧海
一觉醒来，读到大空头倒了。若与当年风光无两、价值投资执牛耳者朱利安·罗伯逊（Julian H. Robertson, Jr.）相比，今日“大空头”Michael Burry 的基金体量可谓云泥之别。
彼时，罗伯逊创立的老虎基金曾是全球规模最大的对冲基金。然而在 2000 年互联网泡沫的癫狂中，基金遭遇巨额赎回，资产从 220 亿美元急速缩水到 60 亿美元。罗伯逊最终选择清盘。而就在他清盘后的一个多月，纳斯达克见顶，此后十五年未能重返峰值。无数公司股价跌去九成甚至退市，投资者血本无归；纳斯达克上市公司数量也从五千余家锐减至三千以下。
当时我正在华尔街扛话，亲眼见到罗伯逊部分收藏品在大摩大厅被公开拍卖（详见《财务自由·人生进阶：从零开始》）。我本人也在随后两年亏至断腕，不得不退出参与创立的3G手机ASIC芯片VC，打回“裸泳”原形。
至于 Michael Burry，虽然是高分电影《大空头》的原型，名气不小、风格凶悍，但基金规模毕竟有限，无法与当年的“一哥”相提并论。然而，他的高姿态也熊据一个时代。他的清盘，虽不足以代表空头力量的全面退却，却往往是一种值得警惕的开始。
市场的多与空，如拔河两端的力量，是同一体的两面。极端单边行情难以持久，一旦一端失衡，游戏往往提前结束。Michael 不能代表整个空方，却确有标杆意义，其倒下绝不可轻忽。
沧海一概不作任何投资建议。
评论 (5)
以下是我認識的在花街炒股的trader回應：I think he is very short biased about this current market
He made an amazing short play in 2008 on the subprime mortgage
When some are asked if they are concerned that Michael is short biased on this current market - people tend to say
Yes he's been shorted biased the last number if years and wrong most of the time
I don't disagree with his views and think he is incredibly smart
Perhaps this move frees him to play the markets how he sees it - without having to explain himself or generate a return on a timeframe dictated by others
Today was a bit of a down day in the markets and eventually he will be proven correct
He says of the move, "my estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets"
I don't think he is saying he is going to change his mind - but that he is not fond of managing others money at this point
对于最近两周的AI shorter如何看
感謝分享。所有的決定權在於自己
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感謝分享。所有的決定權在於自己。只想知道你打算跟進嗎？希望回复！
他没倒下，他赌空AI是对的，一两年后可能卷土从来，来收网
牛经沧海 名博