longtermInvestor

CRYP:

Current price - 5.02, cost - 2.29, return - 262%.
Cryp has a big drop a couple of days ago, something like 25-20% from 8+ to 6. Should I sell it now? I believe cryp is worth 10+ at current condition, so I won't sell until it reach 10. But by the time it reaches 10 (suppose it will), it may be worth more by growing its business. Or its business may deteriorate again while I am waiting. So what to do now? that is the hard part of investing, I choose to wait, I can't predict the future, if it is worth 10 now, I won't sell it under 10. Let future unfold itself. (I did take some partial profit along the way, to make fund available for other investment).

1) 2008-12-03: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=132371&yr=2008

bought more cryp today at 2.29

Reasons simple: price well under its cash/per share of about $3.3, light business model, online casino business, (diverting money losing online poker business now), it is at maximum head wind now: a) US ban of internet gambling, b) moving to Europe from Canada, not a wise move, c) poker business broke down, d) currency hedge loss (or lack of hedge because it reports in US dollar while conduct business in Europe). e) current economy crisis. I could not imagine anything could be worse.

Anyway, detailed info/financial analysis can be seen at fool.com cryp hidden gem discussion board.

2) 2008-11-28: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=131534&yr=2008

set an order to buy cryp at 2.1

made a 10% profit last time around 4. This knife did drop very fast! Cash level: 3.3/share, light business model. Detailed financial analysis can be seen at fool.com discussion board for hidden gem newsletter subscribers.

XL

Current price: 11.12, cost 3.3 return 337%. Should I sell or not today? same kind of difficult question.

2008-12-16: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=134306&yr=2008

just bought xl for 3.3

another insurance company, the only sin of this one is loss of investment portfolio. Anyway, do your own DD. Book value over 20.

2009-01-07: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=136966&yr=2008

重仓 HOLDING XL 逆势突破

I am so happy. I have been waiting for XL for some time, I am glad I am more patient now. This is a big relief, now I can sit back and relax, only thing to worry is that if I should add more. Feels good.

DNDN

price 19.2 cost 2.94 return 653%,


this one is actually easier, since its fate is dependent on FDA approval, so I am waiting for it to dip back to around 15 to buy more. I sold some after it doubled for me, sold a little more at 20, tried to sell even more at 29.98, but failed since its high is about 28.5. I think it will be back up to near 30 or past 30 before FDA decision, especially if we are in a bull market at that time in the future. My plan is to sell more that time while keep a core holding to see the final fate of FDA decision.

2009-03-12: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=151978   

Just bought dndn at 2.94

dndn is scheduled to release its interim data before April, I think now stock market has very low appetite for risk, best time for risky investment, it is a binary event for biotech, as always. But at 2.9 level, there is not much down side any more, plenty of upside.

DNDN can be a small revolution just like DNA, a new tech against cancer. From its working theory, it can be used against multiple cancer just like DNA's tech.

By the way, a new FDA head is coming.

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I have other MQP on abk, mbi, ago, and so on, I also have "failures" like acus, fmd. FMD is still an on going story, I believe it will be back. Of course you may have different opinion. You are welcome to search my posts on TZLC or my blogs to see my my journey.