全球经济快崩溃!联合国罕见示警
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联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)于3日警告,世界正处于经济衰退边缘,而全球经济放缓可能引发比2008年金融海啸、2020年疫情冲击更严重的破坏,届时所有区域都会受到影响,但亚洲等地区的开发中国家恐怕首当其冲,甚至濒临债务违约。
UNCTAD发表“2022年贸易及发展报告”说明,多年以来,全球政策制定者未能提振通膨,或者推动更健康的经济成长,经历长期超低利率后仓促升息,导致现在局面。若各大先进经济体持续升息,单靠货币政策解决生活成本危机,却未寻求其他管道,也没有解决贸易、能源及市场的供应面问题,恐怕把世界推向全球经济衰退与停滞。
CNBC报导,UNCTAD建议,各国应该提高薪资,对社会基础建设挹注更多公共投资,以促进就业、提高生产力,改善能源效率。也应该考虑税制改革,包括增收财富税及暴利税,减少累退税及税收漏洞,打击企业及富有人士的避税天堂。
UNCTAD秘书长格林斯潘(Rebeca
Grynspan)表示,“我们仍有时间从经济衰退的边缘走回来。没有什么是不可避免的。我们必须改变方向。”她呼吁各国采取更务实的政策,进行暴利税、反垄断措施、策略性价格控制,并且更严格控管商品投机行为。
伦敦独立经济研究机构「凯头巨集观」(Capital
Economics)的观点也与联合国相符。该机构4日引述全球工业活动指标“采购经理人指数”(PMI)表示,全球产业显著弱化,且在未来几月,恐怕受高通膨与升息影响,进而表现得更糟。资深经济学者麦克亚当(Simon
MacAdam)说,唯一一线曙光就是闲置工业产能可以舒缓全球短缺,减轻商品价格压力。
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