随着联准会主席鲍尔预估下一步不太可能升息,为美股注入强心针,到底流传着台股五穷六绝之说,美国金融市场流行着“5月卖股走人”(Sell
in May and go
away)的谚语,会不会让股民对5月进入整理期恐惧成真?对此,曾经准确预测“2008年金融危机”的美国传奇市场预测家席林(Gary
Shilling)即提出严重警告,要投资人为经济衰退做好准备,今年股市可能会暴跌30%。
国泰投信认为,今年4月底美股收盘在37,813点,创下2022年9月以来的最差表现,虽市场普遍看好5月行情,但目前美股为波动震荡较大时期,在投资时仍应落实公司基本面,可参考企业ESG表现,拣选出长期报酬率好的标的。
美国传奇市场预测家席林(Gary
Shilling)向来在市场中,是站在华尔街策略分析师的另一边看法,多是提出“看跌”,主要是因为他认为很多人面对不利于经济景气发展证据时,仍会显得过于充满希望与乐观。
根据《商业内幕》报导,席林认为,随着企业缩减人事及征才规模,就业市场人力需求的下降,随着经济持续疲软带来裁员人数的扩大,失业率会来到5%至7%之高。由于受到高利率的影响,美国劳动力市场3月失业率,已接近两年来的高点。
席林因此预估,今年年底,当经济出现衰退之际,股市跌幅可能高达30%,他也以近期股市、加密货币等的风险资产上投资呈现上涨趋势来说,就是一项警讯,认为这即是市场即将下跌所露出的迹象。
台湾主计总处7日公布4月消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率1.95%,均低于2%通膨警戒,17项重要民生物资物价平均年减0.16%,更为4年来首度下跌。根据《中国时报》报导,面对4月电价全面调涨,政大金融系教授殷乃平示警,下半年的通膨压力仍不容忽视,央行作风一向保守,3月先升息半码,就是对打击通膨采取预防性的措施。
殷乃平认为,即将进入用电量较大的夏季,民众6月收到电费账单,应该会很有感;另中东地缘政治未解、亚洲货币面临贬值等,下半年的通膨压力仍不容忽视。
-->
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