My Diary 455 --- ZT Why the Buck Has Pluck

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008

Why the Buck Has Pluck

By David Hale

The cost of stemming the financial crisis continues to soar. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already sunk more than $800 billion into the financial system; the Treasury Department is committed to the $700 billion bailout package in addition to the $200 billion being spent to prop up Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; rescuing AIG may cost more than $120 billion. With the already lofty U.S. budget deficit now expected to top $1 trillion next year and recession a virtual certainty, you'd expect America's currency to be taking a beating.

Yet amid the shocking developments of the past few months, the dollar has surprisingly gained strength. It has rallied more than 16% against the euro since its trough in early July and made impressive advances against the Australian dollar, South Korea's won and other currencies. There's a fairly simple explanation for this: it's not that people want to own dollars, its just that they want to own the alternatives even less. There's certainly nothing mysterious about the dollar's recent strength against the euro. Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2008, the dollar lost 19% against the European currency because the Continent's economies were outpacing America's. That's changed as Europe grapples with its own banking calamities and slumping markets — hence the dollar has bounced back after a very bad run.

Less obvious is the support the dollar is getting from an unlikely quarter: global hedge funds and other nonbank financial entities. This shadow banking system has borrowed trillions of dollars to leverage its investments. But the crisis has triggered massive early loan repayments, and because these loans must be repaid in the U.S. currency, demand for the dollar has increased, driving up its value. It's not just hedge funds that are affected. Foreign banks, which hold $12 trillion in dollar assets and liabilities, are also in the process of deleveraging.

All this helps to explain why the dollar has been stronger lately. But with the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again and the U.S. Mint running its printing presses overtime to fund rescue packages, won't the dollar tank soon? Probably not. As the Treasury Department's $700 billion bailout plan is implemented, banks should begin to be able to restructure their balance sheets and regain the capacity to make loans at interest rates that will be attractive at home and abroad. While a U.S. recession looks unavoidable, the stabilization of the financial system should allow a recovery to begin next year. That's good for the dollar, too.

But what's really good for the dollar is China, which has a couple of solid reasons to help maintain the stability of the U.S. currency. One is that China is one of America's biggest creditors; the country holds some $519 billion in U.S. Treasury bills (second only to Japan's $593 billion), and it doesn't want to see these investments eroded by a slumping dollar. In addition, China is increasingly worried that an economic slump in the U.S. and Europe will curtail its export growth, dealing the Chinese economy a serious blow. To keep the prices of its exports competitive, Beijing has reversed a policy begun three years ago that allowed its own currency, the yuan, to gradually increase in value relative to the dollar. After rising 6.4% during the first half of 2008, the yuan has been flat against the dollar since July.

Moreover, while currency markets are complex ecosystems, it seems unlikely that countries such as China and Japan that have already loaned America trillions will stop buying U.S. government debt any time soon. They have relatively few tools at their disposal to keep their economies on track other than tending to the dollar exchange rate. China recognizes it has little choice but to go on financing the ballooning U.S. budget deficit by expanding its foreign-exchange reserves from $1.8 trillion to $2.3 trillion over the next 18 months.

The message to dollar bears is clear: the grimmer the headlines are, the more misleading they can be. Selling the dollar short because of the financial crisis is not a sure bet. All economic news is relative, and right now the news is bad all over the world. Over the next several months, the greenback could even begin to look like a safe harbor in the midst of the global economic storm.

David Hale is an economist and chairman of David Hale Global Economics in Chicago

• Find this article at:
• http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1850974,00.html 
  
  
  
  美国《时代》周刊10月27日(提前出版)一期发表文章，题目是“美元为什么坚挺”，摘要如下。

      为遏止金融危机而付出的成本继续飙升。美联储已向金融系统注资8000多亿美元；财政部除了出资2000亿美元支撑“房利美”和“房地美”之外，还实施了7000亿美元的金融救援计划；拯救美国国际集团可能耗资1200亿美元以上。目前已十分庞大的预算赤字预计明年将高达1万亿美元，经济衰退也不可避免，你有理由认为，美元也会一蹶不振。 

      然而，尽管近几个月的事态发展令人震惊，美元却出人意料地日益坚挺。美元对欧元比价自7月初降至低谷以来，已经回升了16%，美元对澳元、韩元及其他货币的比价也大幅攀升。对此有种简单的解释：这不是因为人们希望持有美元，而是他们更不愿意持有其他货币。近期美元对欧元的走强并无奥秘可言。2006年7月1日至2008年7月1日之间，由于欧洲大陆的经济状况优于美国，美元对欧元比价降低了19%。随着欧洲开始应对自身的银行危机和市场不景气的问题，比价也随之改变，因此美元在遭到大规模抛售后又开始反弹。

  

      10月20日，在美国华盛顿国会山，美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克（右）出席国会众议院预算委员会举行的一场关于经济复苏的听证会。伯南克20日表示赞同美国国会考虑出台新的经济刺激方案，指出经济前景仍然非常地不确定。 新华社/路透

      另一个不太明显的因素是，全球对冲基金和其他非银行金融实体对美元的支撑作用。这一影子银行系统贷款数万亿美元用于投资。然而，金融危机引发大规模提前还贷，由于这些贷款必须用美元进行偿付，对美元的需求随之增长，由此带动美元升值。受此影响的并非仅有对冲基金。持有1 2万亿美元资产和债务的外国银行也陷入了“去杠杆化”的循环。 

      这都有助于解释美元近期的走强。然而，随着美联储再次降息、美国铸币局加紧印钞来支持救援计划，美元不会迅速贬值吗？也许不会。随着财政部7000亿美元救援计划的实施，银行应该可以调整资产负债表，并重新以能吸引国内外投资者的利率发放贷款。尽管美国的经济衰退似乎不可避免，金融系统的稳定应该可以保证经济在明年开始复苏。这对美元来说也是利好消息。 

      然而，真正推动美元的是中国，以下几个理由可以充分证明中国有助于美元的稳定：中国是美国最大的债权国之一；中国持有约5190亿美元的美国短期国库券(仅次于日本的5930亿美元)，且中国不希望看到这些投资由于美元贬值而缩水。除此之外，中国也越来越担心，美欧的经济不景气会遏制本国出口的增长，从而使本国经济遭受重创。为保持出口产品价格的竞争力，中国改变了3年前开始实施的人民币对美元逐渐升值的政策。2008年上半年，人民币对美元汇率增长了6.4%，但7月以来一直保持平稳。 

      不仅如此，尽管货币市场是套复杂的系统，但中国、日本等国已向美国贷款数万亿，它们似乎不太可能在近期停止购买美国国债。除美元外，它们可用来维持经济正常运行的货币工具寥寥无几。 

      以目前的金融危机为依据来卖空美元并不可靠。在未来几个月内，美元甚至可能成为全球经济风暴中的避风港。