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一只可能的热门大牛股

(2006-09-05 12:29:14) 下一个

AMD

大家可能还记得我在AMD股价在33-34时试图建仓,后来发现时机不对,只好暂时放弃。要弄清为什么AMD有巨大成长潜力,你必须知道amd,nvda,intel和ati的技术,产品和他们之间的关系。打中文实在太累了,还是用英文吧。

Please pay attention to the stock price movement of AMD after the AMD/ATI merger announced on July 24. It clearly indicates that Wall Street has recognized the significant change AMD/ATI merger will bring to the industry. What drives AMD to spend $5.4B to acquire ATI. Besides the graphic chip (GPU), core logic chip sets, chips for PDA, Cell phone and TV business, the most significant potential would be integrating the two most complicated chip technology (CPU and GPU) into new CPU architecture. You may have to have the knowledge about CPU/GPU in order to understand the possibility and potential.

Advantages for AMD:
1. AMD may have CPU with features/technology that Intel has no capability to develop。 GPU design is very complicated and Intel gave up already years ago.
2. AMD can compete with intel with top-to-bottom products, CPU, GPU, Core Logic chip set. Broader market and more revenue.

I know somebody will argue that Intel has Conroe2Due chip available now, which is faster and more power efficent than AMD
current CPU. Yes, it is true. But AMD will still be gaining market share within the next year. The reason is it takes time
for Intel to catch up with the mass production of chip for the market. During the next 2 or 3 Q, comsumers will definitely
choose Athelon 64 over P4, because Conroe2Due might be in back order (and more expensive?) most of the time. That is why
Conroe2Due could not lift intel's stock price.

BTW, if you are interested in looking at the 5-year chart, you can find out when usually AMD was turning around each year. AMD stock price dropped from 42 to 17 within few months was amazing, all because of the price war intel initiated.

I am not pumping, just sharing opinions.

Full disclosure: I bought AMD yesterday and today.

The following link is an article published when "AMD acquiring ATI" was still a rumor. Just for background reference. The author also mentioned some disadvantages.
AMD acquires ATI
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wuwei129 回复 悄悄话 耐心的鹰,能不能再评价一下AMD? 我打算建仓


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