书摘 72（ZT） happy trading!

Not predefining your risk, not cutting your losses, or not systematically taking profits are three of the most common - and usually the most costly - trading errors you can make. Only the best traders have eliminated these errors from their trading. At some point in their careers, they learned to believe without a shred of doubt that anything can happen, and to always account for what they don’t know, for the unexpected.

 

不提前衡量风险、不止损或没有兑现利润的系统，这是三个最普遍的——通常也是成本最高的——错误。只有最优秀的交易者会消灭这些错误。在他们的职业生涯中，他们有时会毫不怀疑地相信任何事都有可能发生，他们为未知的意想不到的事做了好心理准备。

 

Remember that there are only two forces that cause prices to move: traders who believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going down. At any given moment, we can see who has the stronger conviction by observing where the market is now relative to where it was at some previous moment. If a recognizable pattern is present, that pattern may repeat itself, giving us an indication of where the market is headed. This is our edge, something we know.

 

记住，只有两种力量会导致价格波动：相信市场会上涨的交易者和相信市场会下跌的交易者。把任意时刻的市场和之前的市场进行对比，我们就能看出市场中哪一方更有信心。如果市场中有明显的模式，这个模式也许会重复出现，那么它就会指示市场向哪个方向走。这就是我们的优势，这是我们知道的因素。

 

But there’s also much that we don’t know, and will never know unless we learn how to read minds. For instance, do we know how many traders may be sitting on the sidelines and about to enter the market? Do we know how many of them want to buy and how many want to sell, or how many shares they are willing to buy or sell? What about the traders whose participation is already reflected in the current price? At any given moment, how many of them are about to change their minds and exit their positions? If they do, how long will they stay out of the market? And if and when they do come back into the market, in what direction will they cast their votes?

 

如果我们不学习如何解读大众心理，那么还有很多东西我们不知道，可能永远都不知道。比如，我们是否知道有多少交易者正在等待，随时会进场？我们是否知道有多少人要买入，有多少人要卖出，或者是他们要买卖多少股？如果交易者的行为已经被价格反应了，会如何？在任意时刻，有多少人要改变想法并平仓？如果他们要这么做，他们会空仓多久？如果他们再次回到市场，他们进场方向如何？

 

These are the constant, never-ending, unknown, hidden variables that are always operating in every market - always! The best traders don’t try to hide from these unknown variables by pretending they don’t exist, nor do they try to intellectualize or rationalize them away through market analysis. Quite the contrary, the best traders take these variables into account, factoring them into every component of their trading regimes.

 

在任何市场，这些持续的、永无止境的、未知的、隐藏的变数总是存在！最优秀的交易者不会通过假装不知道来隐藏这些未知的变数，他们不会设法让自己变得更聪明，也不会通过市场分析把这些变数合理化。相反，最优秀的交易者在他们的交易计划中提前考虑了这些变数，把变数作为一个因素来考虑。

 

For the typical trader, just the opposite is true. He trades from the perspective that what he can’t see, hear, or feel must not exist. What other explanation could account for his behavior? If he really believed in the existence of all the hidden variables that have the potential to act on prices in any given moment, then he would also have to believe that every trade has an uncertain outcome. And if every trade truly has an uncertain outcome, then how could he ever justify or talk himself into not predefining his risk, cutting his losses, or having some systematic way to take profits? Given the circumstances, not adhering to these three fundamental principles is the equivalent of committing financial and emotional suicide.

 

对于典型的交易者来说，只有相反的情况才是真实的。他认为自己无法看到的、无法听到的、无法感觉到的东西一定不存在，他根据这个认知做交易。对于他的行为，还有其它解释吗？如果他真的相信一些隐藏的变数随时会影响价格的波动，那么他就应该相信每笔交易都会有不确定的结果。如果每笔交易都会有不确定的结果，那么他是如何说服自己不衡量风险、不止损、不系统地兑现利润？综合以上，不坚守这条基本的原则就等于是金钱上和情绪上的自杀。

 

Since most traders don’t adhere to these principles, are we to assume that their true underlying motivation for trading is to destroy themselves? It’s certainly possible, but I think the percentage of traders who either consciously or subconsciously want to rid themselves of their money or hurt themselves in some way is extremely small. So, if financial suicide is not the predominant reason, then what could keep someone from doing something that would otherwise make absolute, perfect sense? The answer is quite simple: The typical trader doesn’t predefine his risk, cut his losses, or systematically take profits because the typical trader doesn’t believe it’s necessary. The only reason why he would believe it isn’t necessary is that he believes he already knows what’s going to happen next, based on what he perceives is happening in any given “now moment.” If he already knows, then there’s really no reason to adhere to these principles. Believing, assuming, or thinking that “he knows” will be the cause of virtually every trading error he has the potential to make (with the exception of those errors that are the result of not believing that he deserves the money).

 

因为大部分交易者不遵守这条原则，那么我们是不是可以认定他们交易的动机就是为了自毁？有这个可能，但我认为大部分交易者有意识或无意识地挥霍钱财或伤害自己的概率还是太小了。如果金钱方面的自杀不是主要原因，那么是什么东西阻止了一个人绝对理性地做事？答案很简单：典型的交易者不提前衡量风险、不止损、不系统地兑现利润的原因是他们认为没有必要。他认为没有必要的原因是他认为他知道结果是什么，他根据“现在”就能知道结果。如果他已经知道结果了，那么实在没有理由去遵守这些原则。他相信、认为、心想“他知道”是他在交易时可能犯错的原因（如果他不相信他会赚钱，结果犯错了，则是例外情况）。

 

Our beliefs about what is true and real are very powerful inner forces. They control every aspect of how we interact with the markets, from our perceptions, interpretations, decisions, actions, and expectations, to our feelings about the results. It’s extremely difficult to act in a way that contradicts what we believe to be true. In some cases, depending on the strength of the belief, it can be next to impossible to do anything that violates the integrity of a belief.

 

我们对真实的信念是一个很强的内部力量。它控制着我们在交易时的方方面面，包括对结果的认知、理解、决定、行动、预期和感觉。和我们相信的东西反着做是超级困难的。有时候，根据信念力量力量的大小，我们发现几乎不可能违背自己的信念去做事。

 

What the typical trader doesn’t realize is that he needs an inner mechanism, in the form of some powerful beliefs, that virtually compels him to perceive the market from a perspective that is always expanding with greater and greater degrees of clarity, and also compels him always act appropriately, given the psychological conditions and the nature of price movement. The most effective and functional trading belief that he can acquire is “anything can happen.” Aside from the fact that it is the truth, it will act as a solid foundation for building every other belief and attitude that he needs to be a successful trader.

 

典型的交易者不知道他需要一个内部机制，这个内部机制就是强有力的信念，这个信念让他越来越清楚地认识市场，并根据心理状况和价格波动让他总是合理地行动。对他来说，最有效，最基本的交易信念就是“任何事都会发生”。除了这个事实，要想成为成功的交易者，这个信念还要成为其它信念和态度的坚定基础。

 

Without that belief, his mind will automatically, and usually without his conscious awareness, cause him to avoid, block, or rationalize away any information that indicates the market may do something he hasn’t accepted as possible. If he believes that anything is possible, then there’s nothing for his mind to avoid. Because anything includes everything, this belief will act as an expansive force on his perception of the market that will allow him to perceive information that might otherwise have been invisible to him. In essence, he will be making himself available (opening his mind) to perceive more of the possibilities that exist from the markets perspective.

 

没有这个信念，他的思维会自动地，通常是无意识地让他避免、阻挡或化解一些信息，而这些信息包含了他认为不可能会发生的事。如果他相信任何事都有可能发生，那么他就没有理由去回避。因为任何事包括所有的事，这个信念成为一个力量，让他看见过去看不见的信息。总之，他会看见市场中更多的可能性（思维开放）并尽量去捕捉机会。

 

Most important, by establishing a belief that anything can happen, he will be training his mind to think in probabilities. This is by far the most essential as well as the most difficult principle for people to grasp and to effectively integrate into their mental systems.

 

更重要的是，一旦有了任何事都会发生的信念，他就会训练自己的思维去考虑概率。对于交易者来说，这是最精华的，也是最难掌握的原则，这个原则需要有效地融入他们的心理系统。