Economist 冲突--中国最近的强硬态度既危险又无效

http://www.economist.com/node/17902953?story_id=17902953&CFID=159284393&CFTOKEN=39706345DiscordChina’s tough new attitude is both dangerous and counterproductive 冲突--中国最近的强硬态度既危险又无效WHAT has happened to the “harmonious world” that China’s president, Hu Jintao, once championed? Where is the charm offensive that was meant to underpin it? Recent revelations about its military programmes are the latest Chinese moves to have unsettled the world. Strip the charm from Chinese diplomacy and only the offensive is left. Sino-American relations are at their lowest ebb since a Chinese fighter collided with an American EP-3 spyplane a decade ago.中国国家主席胡锦涛所曾经倡导的“和谐世界”出了什么问题？那个曾经想巩固这个理念的“魅力威权”(charm offensive，指中国曾经对其他国家offensive，但近年来为了改善外交关系而尝试着变得charming)的哪里去了？最近泄露的关于其军力计划的消息是中国使得世界不安的最新举动。其(向他国所展示的)“魅力”已经从中国外交政策里被剥离开了，所剩的仅是进攻的态势。中美关系已经处在10年来的最低点了，当时一架中国战斗机与美国EP3侦察机相撞In the past few weeks China has made a splash with progress on an anti-ship missile and a stealth fighter jet. Every country has legitimate interests and the right to spend money defending them, especially a growing power like China. But even if their purpose is defensive, such weapons will inevitably alarm America and China’s neighbours. In the harmonious world China says it seeks, assertiveness needs to be matched with reassurance and explanation. Yet China undermined the confidence-building visit this week to Beijing of Robert Gates, America’s defence secretary (see picture), when it staged a test flight of the new jet (see article). It was an unfortunate curtain-raiser for the visit of China’s president, Hu Jintao, to Washington on January 18th. 在过去的几周内，中国在反舰导弹和隐形战斗机方面取得了长足进步。每个国家都有正当的利益与权力进行自卫，尤其是一个像中国这样正在崛起的强权。但即使完全出于防卫的目的，这样的武器也不可避免地让美国及中国的邻国感到威胁。在中国所寻求建立的和谐世界中，言语的主张需要与(事实行动上的)让人确信及解释相一致。然后中国却用新型喷气式战斗机的试飞破坏了美国国防部长罗伯特.盖茨本周对北京的建立互信的访问。对于中国胡主席在本月18日对华盛顿的访问而言，这是一个不幸的开场秀。Sino-American relations have been deteriorating for a year. On his first visit to China in 2009 President Barack Obama was treated with disdain, and the Chinese government reacted with fury when he sanctioned arms sales to Taiwan that were neither a surprise nor game-changing and saw the Dalai Lama—also routine for American presidents. China broke off military-to-military contacts and officials suddenly stopped returning American diplomats’ calls. 中美关系最近一年持续恶化。2009年奥巴马总统首次访问时就受到了轻蔑地对待，而他批准对台军售并接见DL喇嘛时，中国政府反应极其强烈，但事实上前者并无出格之处也没有改变目前的游戏格局，而后者也不过只是美国总统的例行工作而已。但中国却中止了两军交流，中国官员也突然间拒绝对美国外交官的电话(call，也可能广义地指各种进行接触的尝试)进行回复。Tensions have also been growing with neighbours that China was once careful to cultivate. China has more forcefully asserted sovereignty over great swathes of the South China Sea. It overreacted after a Chinese trawler rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel in contested waters controlled by Japan. It got into a spat with India over visas for Kashmiri residents. And it failed to condemn the North Korean sinking of a South Korean corvette and the shelling of a South Korean island. Even Africa, once extremely friendly to China, is having doubts. Anger in Zambia is growing over Chinese managers who shot at mine workers. 紧张关系也在中国曾经悉心维护与之关系的邻国间蔓延。中国非常强硬地强调对广袤的南中国海的主权。在中国一艘渔船在中日争议海域的日方实际控制区内与日本海岸警卫队的舰艇相撞后，中国的反应也异常强烈。该国在给克什米尔地区居民签发签证方面与印度产生了争执，而且也没有在朝鲜炸沉韩国的轻型巡洋舰并炮击韩国岛屿之后对朝鲜进行谴责。即使是曾经对中国非常友好的非洲现在也对其产生了质疑。在赞比亚，人们对中国经理对当地工人开枪的行为充满愤怒。Whereas a single incident sparked the spyplane crisis, today’s tensions are the culmination of lots of different things. China’s new raw-knuckle diplomacy is partly the consequence of a rowdy debate raging inside China about how the country should exercise its new-found power. The liberal, internationalist wing of the establishment, always small, has been drowned out by a nativist movement, fanned by the internet, which mistrusts an American-led international order. Western hawks conclude that China has broken with the pragmatic engagement it has followed for three decades. Its tough new line, they say, warrants an equally tough response.与之前由单一撞机事件引起的磨擦不同，今天的紧张关系是一系列不同事件的复杂结果。中国最近的raw-knuckle(不大知道是啥意思，似乎是指脚踝或膝盖骨)外交政策部分是由于其国内关于这个国家应该如何利用其新掌握的实力的激烈争论而导致的。当局的自由主义者及国际主义者，人数通常很少，已经被其国内在互联网上广受尊崇的爱国主义运动所淹没了，这种运动不相信美国主导的国际秩序。西方鹰派认为中国已经放弃了其奉行30年的务实政策。他们说，这种粗暴的新政将导致同样粗暴的回应。Don’t underestimate America不要低估美国 China’s recent behaviour is in part the product of a miscalculation, dating from the global financial crisis. Many Chinese believe that America’s power has gone into an inexorable decline. Chinese leaders’ preoccupation with sweeping changes to the Communist Party hierarchy in 2012 may be helping to reinforce this belief. At a time of domestic uncertainty, running down the foreign opposition is popular. 中国最近的行为部分是源于近期由全球金融危机导致的误判。许多中国人认为美国的实力已经不可避免地衰落了。而中国领导人对2012年共党领导层大调整的高度关注也加强了这种想法。在一个国内充满了不确定性的时期，将注意力转移到一致对外是例行做法。America is certainly losing clout in relative terms, but it will remain the world’s most fearsome military power for a very long time. If China behaves as though America is weak, and seeks to push back its power, a querulous but well-tended relationship could slide into competition and confrontation and bring about a cold-war stand-off or rivalry for influence in neighbouring states. Already, China’s tough new attitude is having an effect. America has redoubled its commitment to policing the South China Sea. Japan and South Korea have just announced closer defence co-operation. This does not serve China’s interests.美国确实是在相对程度上丧失了一定的影响力，但它在未来相当长时期内仍将拥有世界上最可怕的军事实力。如果中国认为美国好像已经虚弱了，据此采取行动并希望抵抗美国的影响力，那么一段曾经虽时有争吵但毕竟由双方悉心维护的关系将滑落至竞争和冲突并带来冷战式的保持距离或争夺对邻国的影响力。中国近期的强硬态度已经开始产生效果。美国已经大大加强其对保护南中国海的承诺。日韩两国也刚刚宣布加强国防合作。这并不符合中国的利益。Mr Hu needs to counter rabid anti-Americanism at home by acknowledging the stabilising role the United States plays in the region, from which, indeed, China gets a huge free ride in the form of safe sea lanes and vast supplies of Middle East oil. And he should use his visit to America to reassure Mr Obama that pragmatic engagement still holds. He needs to show the world an open, confident face of a rising China. And though Communist leaders don’t “do” apologies, Mr Hu must persuade the world that a prickly year has been an aberration. 胡先生需要承认美国在该区域内所发挥的使其稳定的作用，以此来顶住国内的反美狂热，其实中国在这种作用中也无偿获得了许多好处，如安全的国际航路及大量的中东石油供应。同时，他应该利用他的美国之行让奥巴马先生确信中国的务实政策仍然奏效。他需要向世界展现一个崛起的中国的开放和自信。虽然共党领导人是绝不会道歉的，但胡先生还是必须让全世界理解过去的充满棘手问题的一年是一个误会。----------------------------------------转贴，仅供参考，不负责核实其内容真实性。