insight
工程技术，地产投资，信仰家园，时尚生活
吴慧敏 (2011-10-29)
全球经济前景不明朗，本地私宅价格也连续第八个季度放缓涨幅，由第二季的上涨2％，收紧至上涨1.3％。不过 ，今年第三季的私宅价格指数仍继续挺进至205.7点的历史新高位。这比2008年第二季的高峰高了15.9％，也比1996年第二季的高峰高了13.4％。
高力国际研究与咨询部主管谢岫君认为，私宅价格涨幅缓慢，可能是因为买家感受到外在风险加剧，再加上政府大举发放土地，所以变得更加谨慎，并且对价格的进一步上调开始产生抗拒心理。“这在一定程度上抑制了价格的大幅上涨。”
博纳（PropNex）集团总裁伊斯迈则认为，除了全球经济前景不明朗，这也是因为2009年月至2011年1月实施的一连串降温措施正在奏效。
“卖方必须更合理地定价，以便让组屋提升者负担得起，因为今年下半年预计有超过1万个新私宅单位推出，这也将为潜在买家提供了更多选择权。”
在公寓方面，代表高档领域的核心中央区（CCR）价格上涨最少，只有0.7％。
ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣说：“通常，核心中央区的房子是买来投资的。因此这类买家比较容易受到全球经济波动的影响。”
代表中档领域的其他中央区（RCR），房价上升了1.2％。
至于代表大众化领域的中央区以外（OCR），房价涨幅最多，上升了2.1％。
谢岫君指出，这反映了真诚买家和长线投资者的需求、利率处于低位，以及充裕的现金环境。
伊斯迈指出，有地住宅的行情也在逆境中依然吃香，人们还是对购买有地住宅非常感兴趣。特别是较小型的有地住宅，如排屋和半独立洋房的价格，分别在第三季上升了3.9％和3.7％。
今年首三个季度，本地私宅价格已经累积上涨了5.6％。受访的分析员认为，今年全年的房价涨幅将达到6％至7％。这意味，第四季的房价可能继续上升1％至1.6％。
伊斯迈认为，有鉴于全球经济局势可能恶化，并最终影响到买房气氛，价格涨幅可能会继续放缓。不过，低利率环境和强劲的基本因素将继续支撑房价保持稳定。
私宅交易仍活跃
在成交量方面，今年第三季的私宅交易也保持活跃，达到7866个单位。这虽然比第二季的9786个单位少，却比第一季的7725个单位多。
在公开市场上卖出的二手单位减少至3604个，但是，发展商卖出的新私宅单位却高达4262个，这虽然低于第二季的4444个单位，却比2010年第一季以来成交量第二高的季度。
其中卖得最好的项目，包括8月份推出的EuHabitat、The Luxurie和Boathouse Residence，以及9月份推出的A Treasure Trove和The Meyerise。
今年至今以来，发展商已经卖出了1万2301个新私宅单位。
受访的分析员大多认为，今年的新私宅销售量不会超越2010年的1万6292个单位历史最高水平。
一般猜测，今年房市对新单位的“消化能力”应该介会于1万5000至1万6000个单位。
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国大数据显示 转售私人公寓价格9月连续第三个月横摆
（2011-10-29）
● 《联合早报》龚慧婷 报道新加坡国立大学所追踪的新加坡房地产价格指数（简称SRPI）显示，本地转售的私人公寓价格在9月份连续第三个月横摆。
不过，9月份领涨和领跌的领域与8月份完全相反。
在8月份，价格上涨幅度最大的是小型公寓，而在9月份，小型公寓的价格下跌幅度最大。
经过调整后的8月份数据显示，在该月领涨的主要是小型公寓，价格攀升了3.0％；领跌的是不包括小型公寓在内的中央区公寓价格，下滑了0.5％。不包括小型公寓的非中央区公寓价格，在8月份持平。因此，整体指数为下跌0.2％。
在9月份，领涨的却是不包括小型公寓在内的非中央区公寓价格，但也只微涨了0.2％；领跌的是小型公寓，下滑了1.9％。不包括小型公寓的中央区公寓价格，在9月份微跌0.2％。因此，整体指数微微上扬0.1％。
戴德梁行（DTZ）东南亚研究部主管蔡楚芬说，指数似乎显示，非中央区的转售私宅价格，比中央区的转售私宅稳定。
她认为，那是因为非中央区有来自组屋提升者的强劲需求做后盾，价格对投资者来说，也是在比较能负担得起的范围。
卓登新达（Chesterton Suntec）研究部主管陈瑞谨也说：“这些数据反映了市场上的实际情况：所有的（交易）活动都集中在郊区或属于大众私宅的项目。”
此外，他指出一些地点较中心的项目，或是在市区外围却靠近中央商业区的项目，或许出现较少的销售活动，因此价格增长停滞或稍微下滑。
Mass-market home prices rise above froth
《Business Times》Published October 29, 2011
Driven by genuine demand, this segment shines brightest in Q3 as cooling measures keep speculators on the sidelines
THE mass-market housing segment or Outside Central Region in Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) parlance continued to be the clear outperformer in the private housing market this year. While speculators who target other segments have been scared away by cooling measures, the mass-market segment was again held aloft in Q3 by genuine buyers.
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'These people typically go for homes in affordable locations, in mass market projects in Outside Central Region (OCR),' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. On the supply side, too, the government has been pushing out development sites predominantly in OCR, which is translating to new project launches in these locations, say market watchers.
URA's figures show that the overall private home price index rose 1.3 per cent quarter on quarter (q-on-q) in Q3 this year, a slower rise than the 2 per cent q-on-q gain in Q2 2011. The sub-index measuring prices of non-landed private homes in OCR posted a 2.1 per cent q-on-q rise in Q3, outpacing a 1.2 per cent q-on-q increase in Rest of Central Region and 0.7 per cent q-on-q rise in the Core Central Region (which covers Singapore's choicest residential locations). Year to date, the increases for the three regions are 7.1 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.
Numbers from Institute of Real Estate Studies (IRES) at the National University of Singapore released yesterday also showed that the Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) for Non-Central Region (excluding small units) has increased 10.2 per cent year to date (between December 2010 and September 2011), outpacing the 3.3 per cent rise in the SRPI Central Region (excluding small units) index.
IRES defines Central Region as Districts 1-4 (which includes the financial district and Sentosa Cove) and traditional prime residential districts of 9-11. SRPI covers completed private apartments and condos.
Reflecting the popularity of smallish units, the SRPI Small index, which tracks prices of completed non-landed private homes up to 506 sq ft islandwide, has climbed 10.1 per cent year to date. The Overall SRPI has appreciated 7.3 per cent year to date.
URA's numbers show that developers sold a total of 4,262 private homes (in uncompleted and completed projects) islandwide in Q3, down 4.1 per cent from 4,444 units in Q3.
In OCR alone, developers found buyers for 3,082 uncompleted units in Q3, up 13.8 per cent from Q2's 2,709 units. The figure for the first nine months of this year was 7,692 units - exceeding the full-year 2010 figure of 7,296 units for 2010 as well as the figures for the previous years, notes Credo's Mr Ong.
'This trend attests to the robust suburban mass market which has been the focus of market activity during this period. In contrast, for Core Central Region (CCR) only 207 units were sold in Q3, reminiscent of the volumes in 2008 when the market slumped. The 1,269 units sold in CCR from Q1-Q3 2011 is 59 per cent below that for the same period in 2010. The upper end of the market has become more sluggish, partly due to a lack of demand from investors,' he added.
Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong predicts that it is unlikely the market will see any inflexion point for Q4 2011 or even Q1 2012 in the URA private home price index 'given the broad-based positive momentum from all (private residential) property types, both uncompleted and completed'. He predicts URA's headline index will rise 1.6 per cent in Q4 followed by 0.4 per cent in Q1 2012. 'Fundamentally this is supportable because HDB resale prices have also been rising strongly, thereby buttressing the lower end of the private property segment,' he added.
URA highlighted the build-up in the pipeline supply of uncompleted private homes to 76,255 as at end-Q3 2011, up 7.2 per cent from 71,111 units at end-Q2 2011 and the highest figure since such data was made available in 1999. Of the latest pipeline supply, 39,111 units were unsold. Credo's Mr Ong acknowledged: 'The number of unsold units has certainly increased in the past few quarters indicating a build-up in supply. However, this has to be seen in perspective to understand its severity. Back in 2008, when the market corrected due to the global financial crisis, the number of unsold units was as high as 43,473, constituting 64 per cent of the pipeline supply (67,569) in Q2 2008. The current 39,111 unsold units is 51 per cent of the Q3 2011 pipeline supply. What the current figures suggest is that the situation is not dire but could get risky if demand falls significantly,' he added.
DTZ's Southeast Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon noted that while the price increases of private residential homes continued to moderate in Q3, prices of office, shop and industrial space rose at a faster clip in Q3 than they did in Q2. 'This is likely due to investor interest as the non-residential sectors are not subject to cooling measures,' she notes.
'However, the pace of increase in commercial and industrial rents is slower in Q3 q-on-q as the slowdown in the economy and increasing concerns over the eurozone debt crisis take a toll on occupier sentiment. A continued slowdown in the rental increase will eventually filter down to prices as it will affect yields.'
Private housing prices moderate
Prices of private residential properties increased by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, lower than the 2.0 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
This was the eighth consecutive quarter in which the rate of increase in overall private housing prices had moderated, according to real estate statistics released on Friday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) — which includes postal districts 9, 10 and 11 — increased at a slower pace of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the 1.6 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, prices for Rest of Central Region2 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) increased by 1.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively in the third quarter.
This is slightly higher than the 1.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
Rentals of private residential properties rose by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter, less than the 1.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
URA said there was a total supply of 76,255 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, as at the end of the third quarter this year.
This supply is higher than the 71,111 units in the previous quarter, and also the highest ever recorded since
such data was first available in 1999.
Meanwhile, the total stock of completed Executive Condominium (EC) units remained unchanged at 10,430 units as at the end of the third quarter.
In addition,there were 5,332 EC units in the pipeline.
URA added that another 1,115 EC units could come from the EC sites that have been released for sale via the 2nd Half 2011 government land sales (GLS) Programme.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 28 Oct 2011
Private home prices hit new high, growth pace slows
Private home prices hit another all-time high even as the rate of increase continued to moderate, suggesting that caution had crept into the market amid heightened uncertainty in the macro-economic environment and a large supply pipeline.
According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the price index of private residential properties increased 1.3 per cent in the third quarter this year from the previous quarter to hit 205.7. Still, the rise was significantly lower than the 2-per-cent increase in the previous quarter and the URA said it was the eighth consecutive quarter in which the rate of price growth had moderated.
Ms Chia Siew Chuin, director of Research & Advisory at property consultancy Colliers International, said: “This is the first time since 4Q 2010 when the final full-quarter price index remains unchanged from the flash estimate. This could be reflective of a more cautious market sentiment.”
The URA said that as at the end of the third quarter, there were 76,255 uncompleted private homes from projects in the pipeline, higher than the 71,111 units at the end of the second quarter and the highest ever recorded.
A breakdown of the URA data showed that price growth in the city fringe and suburban areas outpaced that in the prime areas.
For the Rest of Central Region (RCR), prices increased 1.2 per cent, up slightly from 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter. In the Outside Central Region (OCR), prices rose 2.1 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent previously.
Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) increased at a slower pace of 0.7 per cent compared to the 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
On the strength in OCR prices, Ms Chia said: “This is despite the grim global economic outlook and reflects demand from genuine home-buyers and longer-term investors as they remain confident about Singapore’s economic fundamentals amid a continued low interest rate and ample liquidity environment.”
Separately, the National University of Singapore yesterday released its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) for September. The overall SRPI, which tracks prices of completed non-landed private homes, increased a marginal 0.1 per cent from the previous month after falling 0.2 per cent in August.
The SRPI Small, which tracks prices of homes under 506 sq ft, fell 1.9 per cent after rising 3 per cent in the previous month.
Source : Today – 29 Oct 2011
