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Global economy's ups and downs | Business Times: Wed, Apr 04 | |
| GROWTH appears to be back on track in the US economy while China and the rest of emerging Asia still retain strong momentum even if Europe has become the 'sick man'. But growth could be derailed universally if oil prices continue their upward spiral, especially if Iran is attacked. The Business Times convened its panel of economic and investment experts to assess the risks - on the upside and the downside. PANELLISTS MODERATOR Anthony Rowley: Tokyo Correspondent, The Business Times Anthony Rowley: Welcome back, to all of you. Let's start by looking at a key issue, the geo-political risk to the global economy from the Iran/Israel situation and from rising oil prices? William Thomson: This is the big one if it goes wrong. Should an attack occur the impact on the global economy would be grim. Oil could reach US$200 a barrel, creating a renewed and deeper recession, and turmoil in the Middle East would worsen. The banking crisis would deepen and some countries would finally exit the euro. Even China and the emerging world would suffer from the high oil prices and exports slow further. But I think the odds of an attack before the November elections in the US are relatively low. (President) Obama is set against an attack and the leadership of the US military is also opposed and only the powerful Israeli lobby supportive. The Israeli PM seems alone in wanting one and is using the issue to force Obama out of the White House. Kenneth Courtis: A war against Iran would surely lead to vast disruption of global energy markets. As the hawks pound harder and harder on the drums of war, markets have moved to add an increasing risk premium to the price of oil. Where the world economy is currently, and where it is headed this year, oil ought to be trading in the US$70-80/a barrel range. Instead, it is trading at US$105-110 and is poised to move still higher. That difference is the war risk premium. Should Gulf tensions not be reduced, this premium will become a major depressant for the US and the world economy. Yet, the US public is war weary and the Pentagon is war weary. The US administration does not want to participate in yet another war of problematic outcome and unknown duration. So the Obama administration will be doing all it can to dissuade Israel from starting a war with Iran. Robert Lloyd-George: If oil prices reach US$150 a barrel again as they did in the summer of 2008, there is a significant risk to growth in India, China and the developing world, as well as to Europe. We have to assume that the Israelis will not stand by and allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. The assumption is, therefore, that if they are to take action it will be in the next six months and that this could be the shock which derails the current optimism in world markets. Ernest Kepper: The world today runs on oil with China, India and other growing markets consuming oil at a faster pace than ever while worldwide production has been stagnant for much of the last decade. In today's markets, the threat of war creates the ideal backdrop for a massive speculative spike in oil to US$150 by the summer. Futures traders such as banks and hedge funds who have no intention of taking physical delivery but only of turning a paper profit, control some 80 per cent of the energy futures market, and it is this huge inflow of speculative money that creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that is driving up the price of oil. The illusion of global growth will be dissolved as oil prices rise. I expect oil to reach US$150 a barrel by year-end mostly due to low inventory positions. Israel is playing a great game but I don't expect them to attack Iran this year. I don't believe the Israelis want a war. Their biggest concern is with economic growth. However, the threat of military intervention remains a serious one. Rowley: The US economy is looking healthier and the eurozone a little less sick while China appears to be slowing. What's the 'net, net' of all this for the global economy? Courtis: I'm still looking for a pretty weak 2012 for the mature economies. This holds also for the developed commodity economies. Oil has been strong, largely due to tensions driven by increasing Israeli threats against Iran, but the rest of the energy complex is weak. Similarly, base metals, grains, cotton, livestock, lumber, steel, aluminium and copper are all lower than they were at the start of the year. Weaker natural resource prices are as good an indicator as any of the current state of the world economy. Lloyd-George: Although the immediate sense of danger from default or sovereign debt problems in Europe and the US has receded, the underlying problem is still there. The willingness of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to continue printing money and supplying liquidity to the banking system is essential to avoiding a deflationary economic slowdown, but the question is how long this process can continue. I'm cautious about the medium-term outlook for the global economy and I believe that the trade deficit which China has just announced, together with the slowdown in its GNP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent is a clear indicator that China will eventually slow to around 5 per cent and although it will continue to import at a rapid pace, its manufacturing boom will slow. Thomson: The situation is somewhat better for the moment but still very fragile and growth will remain well below par this year. The US is showing signs of healing but true unemployment and under-employment remains sky high with the labour participation rate continuing to fall to record levels. Real median after-tax incomes continue to fall. The budgetary situation is tightening and the Fed, which otherwise might be inclined towards further monetary easing, is feeling pressure in an election year against such actions. In the absence of any external shocks, economic policy will be on hold till after the November election, after which it seems likely fiscal policy will tighten considerably and 2013 could be more challenging than this year. Kepper: The outlook for economic recovery in the US appears better than in most other regions because of the broad-based nature of the economy. For example, new oil shale and gas fields in North Dakota have grown rapidly and provided many new jobs. The success of Apple with its new products and suppliers is also an economic engine of sorts, affecting not only the US but also Asia. Employment numbers are encouraging and, in short, America can heal itself quicker than many people expected. Rowley: Certainly the US economy does seem to be on the move again. Could it regain the role of global economic locomotive? Courtis: Over the last few months, the United States has been generating some 250,000 new jobs a month, which suggests growth of around 3 per cent. Consumer spending continues to trend slightly upward, although for how long remains questionable, given that household debt levels have started rising again. America's once more expanding trade deficit also indicates a stronger economy even though higher oil prices account for part of this deterioration in the external account. At the same time, numbers for investment and production have been on the weak side, and are suggesting growth in the one per cent range. The real problem for the US comes later this year, when it will face the prospect of tax increases for high-income-earning families, and the social programme and defence spending cuts as a result of the recent debt ceiling renewal negotiations. To counter these powerful downward pressures on the economy, the US will have no choice but to engage QE3 as we move into the later part of the year. Lloyd-George: The outlook for economic recovery in the US appears better than in most other regions because of the broad-based nature of the economy. New oil shale and gas fields in North Dakota have grown rapidly and provided many new jobs and the success of Apple with its new products and suppliers is also an economic engine of sorts, affecting not only the US but Asia. Employment numbers are encouraging and, in short, America can heal itself quicker than many people expected. Kepper: With November presidential elections, I expect to see a QE3 introduced sometime in the next three months or so. The Fed cannot afford to raise interest rates as this could increase the costs of borrowing, and higher borrowing costs for US households and businesses will discourage private investment, reducing economic growth and depressing the standard of living. The US economy looks better only because Europe looks so bad. In reality, the US debt mountain is in even worse shape (than those elsewhere) and when it collapses it will fall hard. But as long as Europe's crisis worsens, the US will look like the better place to invest, which is why the US dollar is starting to rally again. It appears that investor confidence in the US is collapsing as central banks in China, Russia, Mexico and beyond have begun systematically liquidating their investments in the dollar and US Treasuries. While a US default on its debt is probably the best long-term solution to its debt problem, it is unlikely. It is equally unlikely that US will choose an option of austerity plus higher taxes in an effort to pay the debt down, which would mean cutting military spending, social security and most other government entitlements. This leaves the only other option as runaway inflation which is the easiest one because all US debts are denominated in dollars and US the controls the supply of those, allowing it to print its way out of debt. Printing money inevitably leads to inflation. Rowley: What about the eurozone. Is it really over the worst? Kepper: In truth, nothing has been solved in Europe. There may be a lull in the crisis, but it will soon return. Severe austerity measures do not create growth, so there's no way Greece can grow its way out of its debt, even after the latest debt write-downs. Austerity measures are imploding the Greek economy, causing the worst social chaos we have seen. Meanwhile, Italy, Portugal and Spain still remain vulnerable. Each and every one of them is just beginning to feel the impact of austerity, causing tensions among countries in Europe. European banks themselves don't buy any of the solutions. They show no confidence in the continent's ability to survive the crisis. Rather than lend, they are hoarding cash, and depositing hundreds of billions with Western central banks. With growth slowing sharply, there is a very real chance of a massive bear market collapse in European debt this year. I expect Greece and Portugal to exit the eurozone within 12 months. High energy prices as well as inflation are making matters worse. I fear the European oil embargo will hurt the EU more than it hurts Iran. Courtis: Large swathes of the eurozone are already in recession now, and its southern tier - Greece, Spain, Portugal, as well as Ireland - are in outright depressions. The economies of France, Italy and the UK are sputtering and even Germany has started to see increasing difficulties. The combination of a weak euro and (sterling) pound plus high and still rising oil prices is now adding further to downward pressures across the EU economic area. So don't hold your breath for a upside surprise in EU economic performance. The risk is on the downside. Lloyd-George: It is difficult to see how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland can grow their way out of their debt problems. On the other hand, Germany has had tremendous success in exporting its quality automobiles and other products to new markets to China, the Middle East and beyond. It is, therefore, perhaps easier to predict a 'two speed' Europe in terms of economic growth. Thomson: Growth in Europe is absent except in the Germanic core. Fortunately the new leader of the ECB Mario Draghi has been more creative than his predecessor. But the social situation is extremely fragile in the 'Club Med' countries with unemployment at depression levels and youth unemployment at over 50 per cent in some. We also have to see how repercussions from the Greek default feed through the banking system. I still expect an eventual Greek exit from the euro but I believe the authorities have had sufficient time to prepare and avoid another post-Lehman systemic crisis. Still, it could be a close call and go either way. Rowley: How serious is the slowdown in China, and what about the rest of Asia? Courtis: The (current) situation places enormous importance on what happens in the key emerging BRIC economic giants - Brazil, India, Indonesia and China. The four of them, together with other emerging markets, will make up virtually 80 per cent of the net real growth in the world economy in 2012. China, of course, is the key as it alone will account directly for half of that growth; half of the remainder will be related to China through the continuing surge of Chinese imports. Virtually every country in Asia enjoys a strong trade surplus with China. On top of that, China has become the leading foreign direct investor in emerging markets. China's economy has run ahead at a blistering speed since early last decade, with neither a substantial pause nor broad reform and inevitably significant imbalances have developed. The drop in consumer income and household consumption relative to GDP, the tightening grip on the economy of large state company monopolies, increasingly stretched local government finances, regional disparities, labour skills, runaway residential real estate prices, issues of price stability, are all part of the result. The government imposed a strong policy squeeze, which has had the effect of moderating growth back to the 8 per cent level, reducing the consumer inflation rate and of putting a lid on residential real estate prices. The squeeze peaked late last year and between now and mid-summer I expect to see a good portion of it reversed. The result will be an accelerating Chinese economy over the end of the year. The problem for China is not so much growth in the short term but the increasingly urgent need to re-engage very substantial supply side reforms. If it does not do so, the result will be that it will become difficult to keep the economy on a stable course. Kepper: I think the biggest impact on China's economy this year is that it's in a year of political transition, and we can expect it to be aggressive and stimulate the economy. The currency is currently strengthening, exports are decreasing but we can expect the currency to stabilise and we can also expect growth targets of 7.5 per cent to be met with a surprise on the upside. However, in the short run, China's GDP growth will likely continue to fall. GDP growth will most likely be balanced by growth-model changes to support consumers. China will move away from state-owned enterprises which require massive capital investment and export subsidies to companies that operate in the red or on wafer-thin margins. These reforms will, in turn, eliminate the need to recycle surpluses and keep buying US Treasuries in order to keep the currency suppressed, because a stronger yuan will increase consumer wealth relatively, making the transition to a new model more efficient, i.e. benefiting importers at the expense of exporters. Asian-block nations have suppressed the value of their currencies over the last several years, thanks to China's currency suppression and growth model. So they will be relieved if China signals that it is serious about making a transition that empowers its consumers. Thus, China's change in its growth model will likely be reinforced strongly across the region. Stronger Asian consumer demand and stronger Asian currencies mean that Western consumer goods will flow more freely to Asia and the US and European trade balance could improve. However, this scenario could be disturbed by contagion to emerging markets from the European debt crisis, a financial crisis in China as debt grows to dangerous levels and unrest is met with more internal crackdowns, or if the US remains mired in a never-ending-war policy and does little to improve its fiscal deficits. Source: Business Times（香港） (2012-04-04) 香港文汇网报道，据人民日报海外版4月4日报道，美联储主席伯南克日前暗示，尽管美国经济状况有所改善，但是面临就业、楼市等 挑战，美国将不排除启动第三轮量化宽松政策。此番表态一出，立即引发全球各大经济体的广泛关注。央行行长周小川对此表示，美国在实行货币宽松政策以重振经 济和增加就业时，要采取负责任的态度。 第三轮量化宽松为时不远 作为全球最大经济体的央行掌门人，伯南克每一次发言都会被市场解读为美国经济政策的风向标，而一向口风甚严的伯南克近日却频频暗示或将 推出QE3(第三轮量化宽松政策)。继3月26日公开表示，如要创造足够就业机会、进一步缓和失业问题，可能得要生产连同消费者与企业需求更迅速地扩张， 这个过程可由持续性的宽松政策支撑，3月27日，伯南克在接受美国广播公司采访时再次强调，现在宣称复苏取得胜利为时过早，基于当前美国经济形势，美联储 不排除任何进一步支持经济的可能性。 分析人士认为，伯南克的一系列言论被市场解读为第三轮量化宽松可能为时不远了。 即将公布的3月份美国经济数据则对是否实施新一轮量化宽松政策更为关键。高盛经济学家Tilton认为，美联储仍有可能在4月底召开的货币政策会议上宣布宽松措施。 「从伯南克的理论逻辑判断，推出QE3的预期大幅增加。」清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究员袁钢明认为，在政策动向上，美联储将低 利率时间延长到2014年，美国国债继续承压并第二次提高国债上限等，在很大程度上都要靠宽松的货币来支持;再加上美国经济增长预期调低，使得总体上美国 对自己经济信心下降。此外，欧债危机难以化解，因此，美国最有效的办法还是量化宽松。 开动印钞机输出通胀 对于美国或将实施新一轮量化宽松政策，周小川强调，美国须担负起更多责任，不仅要考虑其经济自身的需要，还应考虑对全球经济的影响。他 表示，美联储并不是一个简单的中央银行，它和其他许多银行不一样，因为美联储他们是创造了美元，而美元是世界上的储备货币，在世界经济中得到了广泛的使 用。美国的量化宽松势必会使资金流向其他新兴经济体，从而使得这些国家控制通胀难度加大。 事实上，量化宽松货币政策的实质是向市场注入超额资金，旨在降低市场利率，刺激经济增长。美元是当今世界的核心货币，但是发行权却掌握 在美国手中，美联储可以不受任何约束无限制发行美元。尤其是金融危机爆发后，美国加大马力开动印钞机，连续推出两轮量化宽松政策，将过多的美元输出到全世 界，将美元贬值的压力不断转嫁给其他国家，尤其是中国等新兴经济体。 量化宽松在引起美元贬值的同时，还会引起人民币持续升值，进而对中国的就业、出口等将产生更多不利影响。此外，还将会进一步推高原油等 大宗商品的价格，进而对中国造成输入型通胀压力。实际上，2009年美国实行量化宽松政策就导致黄金价格屡创新高，石油、铁矿石、粮食等大宗商品价格涨幅 超过20%。 「中国需要防止美国第三轮量化宽松政策带来的热钱涌入和通胀压力。」清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵表示，量化宽松政策对全球流动性而言，其推出一定会持续地推高全球资产价格。 变相逃债转嫁危机 为什麽在欧债危机愈演愈烈之时，美国却没有发生欧洲那样严重的债务危机?「其中一个重要原因，是美国一直采取通货膨胀和美元贬值『变相 违约』方式，从而转嫁了美国债务危机风险。」成都大学副校长张其佐认为，采用美元贬值和通货膨胀变相违约，早已是美国减债减赤转嫁风险的隐蔽做法。而对全 球投资者来说，最终和最大的风险也正在于此。 事实上，对于借债成瘾的美国来说，量化宽松的最大作用就是通过货币贬值和输出通胀化解债务，处理美国的经济负债，也就是先将「私人债务国家化」，然后将「国家债务国际化」。 「世界很可能已经进入一个中央银行印钞票时代。」中国社会科学院学部委员余永定表示，由于欧洲国家，美国还有其他的一些国家，不能够在 政治上、经济上采取一种通过勒紧裤腰带搞发明创造来还债的决心、意志和能力。他们想通过印钞票的方法，通过通货膨胀的方法，把他们的债务「胀」没。 余永定表示，中国是世界上最大的债权人，我们不得不担心，美国进行货币贬值的最大的受害者就是债权人。在这个情况下，中国必须要加快自己的调整速度，加快经济调整，转变经济增长方式，不要再进一步陷入各种各样的陷阱。 | ||
