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改变了世界的撒切尔夫人

(2013-04-09 21:18:35) 下一个
As a student, I personally experienced the golden years of Maggie's reign and learnt about her pragmatism, determination and vision as a strong leader, not to mention her triumph over powerful and stalinist trade unions and communism. Salute to the Iron Lady and a giant in world history, who is and will be an inspiration for many generations.

2013年 04月 09日, 《华尔街日报》
PAUL JOHNSON

玛格 丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)是自俄罗斯帝国的凯瑟琳大帝(Catherine the Great)以来对世界影响最大的女性领导人。她不仅毅然决然地在上世纪80年代扭转了英国经济,同时还见证自己的方法被50多个国家效仿。在20世纪后 半叶以及21世纪初,“撒切尔主义”是最流行、最成功的治国之道。

John Minihan/Evening Standard/Getty Images
图片:缅怀撒切尔夫人
撒 切尔夫人出身寒微。她生于1925年10月13日,是林肯郡格兰瑟姆镇一名杂货店主的女儿。她父亲阿尔弗雷德•罗伯茨(Alfred Roberts)并不是普通商人。他在当地政府地位显要,而且有着果决的经济和政治观点。撒切尔夫人后来声称,她的观点是受到卡尔•波普尔(Karl Popper)和弗里德里希•海耶克(Friedrich Hayek)等大师影响,但和议员罗伯茨在她孩提时代为她打下的基础相比,这些只不过是点缀而已。这个基础综合了亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)与“摩西十诫”(Ten Commandments),其中三个最重要的元素是,勤奋、诚信和按时付账单。

凭 借勤奋,玛格丽特•罗伯茨获得了一系列奖学金,先后就读于格兰瑟姆女子学校(Grantham Girls' School)和牛津大学萨莫维尔学院(Somerville College, Oxford),并获得了化学和法学两个学位。这两种职业她都从事过,先是当了从事研究的化学家,后来从1954年开始担任律师。从性格上说,她一直是个 好学的女孩,时刻保持着学习的热情,甚至在当上首相之后,她仍在自己大大的手提包内放着一个笔记本,只要听到她觉得值得记下来的事情就会写在上面。

与 此同时,她也极具女性特质,喜欢购买和穿着漂亮服饰,拥有英国政界最漂亮的发型,也花费巨资悉心装扮秀发。在牛津,泛舟伊希斯河(Isis)和查韦尔河 (Cherwell)时,她也会显得随意轻佻,而且终其一生都喜欢英俊男士,而不是普通男子。她丈夫丹尼斯•撒切尔算不上型男,但十分富有(石油行业)、 是一名成功的商人,也是她失意时的倚仗,同时还非常擅于说俏皮话。他们二人于1951年结婚,并生有一子一女。

丹尼斯愿意(或者说听之任 之)让她追求政治事业,1959年,她当选为代表伦敦郊区芬奇利市的议员。她获得这个坚如磐石的保守党席位极为幸运,此地靠近英国议会所在地威斯敏斯特, 离她家也很近,十分方便。她毫无阻碍地一直保有这个席位,直到33年后退休。事实上,撒切尔一直算是一位幸运的政治家。英国首相哈罗德•麦克米伦 (Harold Macmillan)不久后(1961年)任命她担任退休金部门的次官,当1970年保守党重新掌权时,她幸运地被分到了内阁中唯一由女性出任的职位上, 担任教育和科学大臣。

她在这个职位上洁身自好,幸运地避免了被卷入灾难性的泰德•希思(Ted Heath)政府的金融和经济重创。70年代是英国战后衰退的顶点,“英国病”(即过大的工会权力)通过罢工和不断膨胀的工资方案破坏了经济。锅炉工工会 (Boilermakers Union)已经重创了造船行业。工程师总工会(Amalgamated Engineers Union)冲击着汽车产业残留的部分。印刷业工会对媒体实施着越来越多的审查。尤其是,在斯大林主义者阿瑟•斯卡吉尔(Arthur Scargill)领导下的矿工工会发明了新的纠察策略,使得他们能够在任何时候让整个国家瘫痪。

Corbis
1982年6月,美国总统里根与英国首相撒切尔夫人在白宫。
1970 年,多次的改革尝试导致威尔逊(Harold Wilson)领导的工党政府被推翻。1974年,由于提出了一个反工会的法案,希思未能在大选中获得多数选票,并被由威尔逊领导的另一个软弱政府取代, 威尔逊政府使权力进一步向工会倾斜。当时普遍的看法是,英国相当难以治理。

在保守党的普通议员中,越来越多的人认为希思必须下台。撒切尔 是希思的反对者之一,她鼓励她所在的政党派系的领袖约瑟夫(Keith Joseph)与希思相抗衡。不过,约瑟夫在最后关头害怕了,他拒绝参选。正是在这种形势下,从来没认为自己能够胜任领袖更不用说首相一职的撒切尔走到了 台前。出于礼貌,她来到了希思的办公室,告诉他自己要争夺他的位置。希思当时正在桌子前写东西,他甚至没有抬头看撒切尔一眼,只是说,你知道,你会输的。希 思的无礼和误判由此可见一斑。事实上,撒切尔后来轻松取胜,就此开始了当代英国政治史上最具浪漫主义色彩的一段冒险。

当时是1975年, 又过了可怕的四年,撒切尔才有机会掌权并拯救英国。最终,是工会让她得到了首相之位。多个工会在1978到1979年的冬天(所谓的“不满之冬” (winter of discontent))击垮了卡拉汉(James Callaghan)的工党政府,使保守党在随后的5月轻松赢得大选。

人 们常常错误地认为,撒切尔在将近12年的任期中有过多意识形态化的色彩。事实上,撒切尔曾经是,现在也仍然是极其务实、极其注重经验的。她并没有像希思一 样提出一个单独的综合法案来解决工会问题,而是通过一系列措施,每一个措施都解决一个具体的问题,比如激进的纠察。与此同时,她和警方还为一些内部的行政 改变可能引起的麻烦做好准备,这些改变使得国家不同的警力在任何需要的时候都能集结成大的移动的总队。然后,她静静地等待,等待愚蠢的工会领导人自投罗 网。他们并没有让她失望。

她经过斗争战胜了两个最强大的公会──矿工和印刷业者工会。这两次战役的胜利都是以长达数周的斗争和一些人的牺 牲为代价的。在强硬的工会被打败后,其他的工会投降了,当工党最终夺回权力的时候,新的立法被欣然接受,没有人试图做出任何撤销或改变。英国从受罢工影响 最严重的国家变成了行业性活动相当少见的国家。这对管理者们经营企业和引入创新的自由而言,几乎产生了奇迹般的效果,并且一直在继续。

撒切尔通过对税制进行了革命性的简化,加强了重要的改革行动,她把税率分级从20多个减少到两个,将最高税率从83%(工资收入)和98%(非工资收入)下调到40%。

她还缩减了英国庞大且亏损的国有产业,使其规模从经济的三分之一左右减少到不到十分之一,方法就是推进私有化:以较低的股价邀请公众购买煤炭、钢铁、公用设施和交通等领域的国有产业。因此,原本靠税收支持的亏损企业成了盈利企业,并且成为税收收入的重要来源。

这种改革很快被世界各国所效仿。不过,比这些具体的改革更重要的,是撒切尔所营造的氛围,英国重新成为让企业受到欢迎并获得回报的地方。在这里,企业不论大小,政府都笑脸相迎,投资者都能赚到钱。

因此,英国在欧洲所吸收的全部投资的占比很快超过了50%,英国的经济规模从世界第六升至第四位,人均产出在上世纪70年代曾经是德国的一半,而在本世纪头几年已经比德国高出三分之一。

撒 切尔在和平时期对英国的治理与丘吉尔在战争时期对英国的治理具有同等重要的意义。如果是在战时,或许她也会成为一名卓越的领导人。刚开始执政时,她对外交 的了解微乎其微。同样,外国人一开始也不乐意看到一个新的更强硬领导人控制英国。但也有例外。里根从一开始听说撒切尔就喜欢上了她的风格。他表示,他和撒 切尔在精神上是同一类人,即便当时他仍在竞选总统,他的言论也与撒切尔的行为互相呼应。

里根刚成功入主白宫,他和撒切尔夫人立即让美国和 英国恢复了“特殊关系”。这再好不过了。一些外国人并未重视这位开始被克里姆林宫称作铁娘子的人物的力量。1982年,阿根廷的军事独裁政权被英国外交部 对阿方威胁的冷淡应对所误导,迈出了入侵并占领英国福克兰群岛这一危险步骤。这一无缘无故的侵略行动让撒切尔夫人猝不及防,有36个小时的时间她陷入了不 知所措和犹豫不决的境地:英国军方和后勤部门反对政府派遣联合作战部队从距福克兰群岛8,000英里以外的地方对阿根廷发起反击,这种反对声音当时是相当 强大。

但英国后勤事务主管官员们的话给撒切尔夫人吃了定心丸,他们说只要下定决心,任务就有可能完成。撒切尔夫人最终下了决心:需要对阿 根廷做出反击。自那以后,她取得胜利的意志,她不理睬损失和风险的态度从未动摇过。他的朋友里根当时还保证说,除了派兵,美国会动用其庞大国力在其他任何 方面向英国提供帮助,里根信守了这一诺言。此后现代军事和道德历史上最著名的战役之一开始了,英国最终赢得了福克兰群岛上所有阿根廷军队的无条件投降这一 辉煌战果,战争结束后不久阿根廷的军人独裁政权也垮台了。

这一军事上的惊人成功,再加上撒切尔夫人使英国经济实现复兴,使她在1983年 的大选中以明显优势赢得了胜利。此后撒切尔夫人又于1987年第三次赢得大选。撒切尔夫人在劝说英国选民支持她方面从未遇到任何真正的困难,如果有机会继 续参选的话,她预计会连续赢得第四次大选。

但撒切尔夫人要想让她所在的英国保守党顺从地支持她,却又是另外一码事了。由此看来,保守党曾 被它的一位领袖称作“笨蛋党”不是没有理由的。一些保守党的显要人物从未甘心服从于撒切尔夫人的领导,这其中尤其包括那些支持建立欧洲联邦 (European federation)的人,而撒切尔夫人则执拗的反对欧洲联邦。保守党一些显要人物的加盟壮大了党内反撒切尔夫人的阵营,这些人曾在她手下担任要职,但 后来都被她毫不客气地弃用了。这一现象也反映了一个令人悲哀的事实,即多年的一路胜利使撒切尔夫人变得更为专横,权力败坏了她的判断力。

这 一点在她着手改革英国地方政府的财政时明显地显现出来。改革本身是明智的,甚至是崇高的,但这一改革的具体推介过程却让人不敢恭维,这项改革的众多反对者 轻而易举地就赢得了宣传战。在这场灾难逐步发生的过程中,撒切尔夫人在保守党内那些持亲欧盟态度的反对者们1990年策划了一场旨在推翻她的阴谋,他们让 自己阵营的一个人成为保守党领导人年度选举的一名候选人(此人曾因工作缺乏效率而被解除了在内阁的职务)。撒切尔夫人在选举中未能完胜,她在朋友们的劝说 下辞去了保守党领袖的职务。英国政治史上一段最不寻常的从政生涯也因此而告终结。

撒切尔夫人最强烈的特征是她身体上和道德上所具有的勇 气。而她也一次又一次地展示了这种勇气,其中引人注目的一次是爱尔兰共和军(IRA)在英国保守党1984年召开大会期间试图谋杀她。那次谋杀几乎得手, 她居住的酒店在午夜时分被炸毁。撒切尔夫人坚持第二天的会议准时隆重召开。她仅次于勇气的另一性格特征是勤勉。撒切尔夫人肯定是英国历史上最勤奋的首相, 她经常每天工作16小时,常常彻夜不睡撰写演讲稿。她的丈夫虽然早已习惯了她的这种工作习惯,但曾经依然忍不住抱怨说:你要明白,你不是在写《圣经》。

撒 切尔夫人不是一位女权主义者,她将女权人士贬斥为“时尚的腐烂物”,不过她确也曾经讲过一句具有女权主义色彩的话。在一次有500名男性经济学家出席的冗 长公共晚宴上,撒切尔夫人在耐着性子听完九个人的演讲后终于轮到了她来发言,她此时的兴奋之情是可以理解的。撒切尔夫人开讲后的第一句话就是:作为第十位 发言者以及唯一一名女性发言人,我想说的是,公鸡或许能够打鸣,但下蛋的是母鸡。

撒切尔夫人在政治上的成功再次证明,怀着热情和韧性坚持 两到三个信念对政治人物而言具有重要意义,里根也有同样的优点。其中一个信念是,共产主义“邪恶帝国”能够被摧毁也终将被摧毁。撒切尔夫人与里根及罗马教 皇约翰•保罗二世(John Paul II)肯定应该因促成这一“邪恶帝国”的垮台而被记上一功。

在英国公众中,强烈赞美撒切尔夫人和十分反感她的人几乎占有相同的比例,但在世界其他地区,她则被公认为一位伟大而富有创造性的政治人物,人们认为她让世界变得更好、更繁荣,她的影响在21世纪的很长一段时间都将继续存在。

(编者按:本文作者PAUL JOHNSON是一位历史学家。)

The World-Changing Margaret Thatcher

PAUL JOHNSON

Margaret Thatcher had more impact on the world than any woman ruler since Catherine the Great of Russia. Not only did she turn around─decisively─the British economy in the 1980s, she also saw her methods copied in more than 50 countries. 'Thatcherism' was the most popular and successful way of running a country in the last quarter of the 20th century and into the 21st.

Her origins were humble. Born Oct. 13, 1925, she was the daughter of a grocer in the Lincolnshire town of Grantham. Alfred Roberts was no ordinary shopkeeper. He was prominent in local government and a man of decided economic and political views. Thatcher later claimed her views had been shaped by gurus like Karl Popper and Friedrich Hayek, but these were clearly the icing on a cake baked in her childhood by Councillor Roberts. This was a blend of Adam Smith and the Ten Commandments, the three most important elements being hard work, telling the truth, and paying bills on time.

Hard work took Miss Roberts, via a series of scholarships, to Grantham Girls' School, Somerville College, Oxford, and two degrees, in chemistry and law. She practiced in both professions, first as a research chemist, then as a barrister from 1954. By temperament she was always a scholarship girl, always avid to learn, and even when prime minister still carried in her capacious handbag a notebook in which she wrote down anything you told her that she thought memorable.

At the same time, she was intensely feminine, loved buying and wearing smart clothes, had the best head of hair in British politics and spent a fortune keeping it well dressed. At Oxford, punting on the Isis and Cherwell rivers, she could be frivolous and flirtatious, and all her life she tended to prefer handsome men to plain ones. Her husband, Denis Thatcher, whom she married in 1951 and by whom she had a son and daughter, was not exactly dashing but he was rich (oil industry), a capable businessman, a rock on which she could always lean in bad times, and a source of funny 19th-hole sayings.

Denis was amenable (or resigned) to her pursuing a political career, and in 1959 she was elected MP for Finchley, a London suburb. She was exceptionally lucky to secure this rock-solid Tory seat, so conveniently placed near Westminster and her home. She held the seat without trouble until her retirement 33 years later. Indeed, Thatcher was always accounted a lucky politician. Prime Minister Harold Macmillan soon (in 1961) gave her a junior office at Pensions, and when the Conservatives returned to power in 1970, she was fortunate to be allotted to the one seat in the cabinet reserved for a woman, secretary of state for education.

There she kept her nose clean and was lucky not to be involved in the financial and economic wreckage of the disastrous Ted Heath government. The 1970s marked the climax of Britain's postwar decline, in which 'the English disease'─overweening trade-union power─was undermining the economy by strikes and inflationary wage settlements. The Boilermakers Union had already smashed the shipbuilding industry. The Amalgamated Engineers Union was crushing what was left of the car industry. The print unions were imposing growing censorship on the press. Not least, the miners union, under the Stalinist Arthur Scargill, had invented new picketing strategies that enabled them to paralyze the country wherever they chose.

Attempts at reform had led to the overthrow of the Harold Wilson Labour government in 1970, and an anti-union bill put through by Heath led to the destruction of his majority in 1974 and its replacement by another weak Wilson government that tipped the balance of power still further in the direction of the unions. The general view was that Britain was 'ungovernable.'

Among Tory backbenchers there was a growing feeling that Heath must go. Thatcher was one of his critics, and she encouraged the leader of her wing of the party, Keith Joseph, to stand against him. However, at the last moment Joseph's nerve failed him and he refused to run. It was in these circumstances that Thatcher, who had never seen herself as a leader, let alone prime minister, put herself forward. As a matter of courtesy, she went to Heath's office to tell him that she was putting up for his job. He did not even look up from his desk, where he was writing, merely saying: 'You'll lose, you know'─a characteristic combination of bad manners and bad judgment. In fact she won handsomely, thereby beginning one of the great romantic adventures of modern British politics.

The date was 1975, and four more terrible years were to pass before Thatcher had the opportunity to achieve power and come to Britain's rescue. In the end, it was the unions themselves who put her into office by smashing up the James Callaghan Labour government in the winter of 1978-79─the so-called Winter of Discontent─enabling the Tories to win the election the following May with a comfortable majority.

Thatcher's long ministry of nearly a dozen years is often mistakenly described as ideological in tone. In fact Thatcherism was (and is) essentially pragmatic and empirical. She tackled the unions not by producing, like Heath, a single comprehensive statute but by a series of measures, each dealing with a particular abuse, such as aggressive picketing. At the same time she, and the police, prepared for trouble by a number of ingenious administrative changes allowing the country's different police forces to concentrate large and mobile columns wherever needed. Then she calmly waited, relying on the stupidity of the union leaders to fall into the trap, which they duly did.

She fought and won two pitched battles with the two strongest unions, the miners and the printers. In both cases, victory came at the cost of weeks of fighting and some loss of life. After the hard men had been vanquished, the other unions surrendered, and the new legislation was meekly accepted, no attempt being made to repeal or change it when Labour eventually returned to power. Britain was transformed from the most strike-ridden country in Europe to a place where industrial action is a rarity. The effect on the freedom of managers to run their businesses and introduce innovations was almost miraculous and has continued.

Thatcher reinforced this essential improvement by a revolutionary simplification of the tax system, reducing a score or more 'bands' to two and lowering the top rates from 83% (earned income) and 98% (unearned) to the single band of 40%.

She also reduced Britain's huge and loss-making state-owned industries, nearly a third of the economy, to less than one-tenth, by her new policy of privatization─inviting the public to buy from the state industries, such as coal, steel, utilities and transport by bargain share offers. Hence loss-makers, funded from taxes, became themselves profit-making and so massive tax contributors.

This transformation was soon imitated all over the world. More important than all these specific changes, however, was the feeling Thatcher engendered that Britain was again a country where enterprise was welcomed and rewarded, where businesses small and large had the benign blessing of government, and where investors would make money.

As a result Britain was soon absorbing more than 50% of all inward investment in Europe, the British economy rose from the sixth to the fourth largest in the world, and its production per capita, having been half that of Germany's in the 1970s, became, by the early years of the 21st century, one-third higher.

The kind of services that Thatcher rendered Britain in peace were of a magnitude equal to Winston Churchill's in war. She also gave indications that she might make a notable wartime leader, too. When she first took over, her knowledge of foreign affairs was negligible. Equally, foreigners did not at first appreciate that a new and stronger hand was now in control in London. There were exceptions. Ronald Reagan, right from the start, liked what he heard of her. He indicated that he regarded her as a fellow spirit, even while still running for president, with rhetoric that was consonant with her activities.

Once Reagan was installed in the White House, the pair immediately reinvigorated the 'special relationship.' It was just as well. Some foreigners did not appreciate the force of what the Kremlin was beginning to call the Iron Lady. In 1982, the military dictatorship in Argentina, misled by the British Foreign Offices's apathetic responses to threats, took the hazardous step of invading and occupying the British Falkland Islands. This unprovoked act of aggression caught Thatcher unprepared, and for 36 hours she was nonplused and uncertain: The military and logistical objections to launching a combined-forces counterattack from 8,000 miles away were formidable.

But reassured by her service chiefs that, given resolution, the thing could be done, she made up her mind: It would be done, and thereafter her will to victory and her disregard of losses and risks never wavered. She was also assured by her friend Reagan that, short of sending forces, America would do all in its considerable power to help─a promise kept. Thus began one of the most notable campaigns in modern military and moral history, brought to a splendid conclusion by the unconditional surrender of all the Argentine forces on the islands, followed shortly by the collapse of the military dictatorship in Buenos Aires.

This spectacular success, combined with Thatcher's revival of the U.K. economy, enabled her to win a resounding electoral victory in 1983, followed by a third term in 1987. Thatcher never had any real difficulty in persuading the British electorate to back her, and it is likely that, given the chance, she would have won her fourth election in a row.

But it was a different matter with the Conservative Party, not for nothing once categorized by one of its leaders as the 'stupid party.' Some prominent Tories were never reconciled to her leadership. They included in particular the supporters of European federation, to which she was implacably opposed, their numbers swollen by grandees who had held high office under her but whom she had dumped without ceremony as ministerial failures. It was, too, a melancholy fact that she had become more imperious during her years of triumph and that power had corrupted her judgment.

This was made clear when she embarked on a fundamental reform of local-government finance. The reform itself was sensible, even noble, but its presentation was lamentable and its numerous opponents won the propaganda battle hands down. In the midst of this disaster, her Europhile opponents within her party devised a plot in 1990 to overthrow her by putting up one of their number (sacked from the cabinet for inefficiency) in the annual leadership election. Thatcher failed to win outright and was persuaded by friends to stand down. Thus ended one of the most remarkable careers in British political history.

Thatcher's strongest characteristic was her courage, both physical and moral. She displayed this again and again, notably when the IRA tried to murder her during the Tory Party Conference in 1984, and nearly succeeded, blowing up her hotel in the middle of the night. She insisted on opening the next morning's session right on time and in grand style. Immediately after courage came industry. She must have been the hardest-working prime minister in history, often working a 16-hour day and sitting up all night to write a speech. Her much-tried husband once complained, 'You're not writing the Bible, you know.'

She was not a feminist, despising the genre as 'fashionable rot,' though she once made a feminist remark. At a dreary public dinner of 500 male economists, having had to listen to nine speeches before being called herself, she began, with understandable irritation: 'As the 10th speaker, and the only woman, I wish to say this: the cock may crow but it's the hen who lays the eggs.'

Her political success once again demonstrates the importance of holding two or three simple ideas with fervor and tenacity, a virtue she shared with Ronald Reagan. One of these ideas was that the 'evil empire' of communism could be and would be destroyed, and together with Reagan and Pope John Paul II she must be given the credit for doing it.

Among the British public she aroused fervent admiration and intense dislike in almost equal proportions, but in the world beyond she was recognized for what she was: a great, creative stateswoman who left the world a better and more prosperous place, and whose influence will reverberate well into the 21st century.

(Mr. Johnson is a historian.)
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