迪拜危机和希腊危机点评

迪拜危机和希腊危机点评

好戏连台，美股收盘之后，希腊危机粉墨登场，开始将军欧盟央行。

美东时间11月28日星期六分析：

觉得美国指数还未见弱，当时要观望市场。中国A股和港股已经确认中期走弱了。时间选在美股休市，耐人寻味，由于时差和感恩节，美国股市基本少了三个交易日。感恩节后美股的半天交易，可以说是力挽狂澜全球股市截止11月27日周五整周的跌势。即使当时做空美股，开仓刚开始时也要小，再逐步加仓。美股金融股并没有明显出货痕迹，又不在高位，反而在迪拜消息后都出现低开高走的阳日线。科技大股也是这样。

美东时间11月30日周一收盘后：

Dubai "Crisis" is nothing

The so called Dubai "Crisis" is nothing but a way to manipulate the market.
Reasons:

1, $75B is nothing.

2, The news was realeased during US Thanksgiving. The world market was down for three trading days while the US was virutually irrelvalent, especially because of the time zone difference and US marketing opening the latest in the world.

3, UAE is the relay harbor of Iran just like Hong Kong of China before its reform and openness. Raiding UAE is to pressurize Iran on political affairs.

4, US market was not influenced by the so called Dubai "Crisis" at all. At least, so far.

In addition, no meaningful insider info was released about the Dubai "Crisis" running.

All comments are just pure speculations and the dust is settling.

截止美东时间11月30日星期一收盘，Who shorts the market? AMZN just made new high.

MSFT/GOOG/AAPL are strong while GS/JPM are supported at supposed support points.

Dubai "Crisis" is nothing but a news to trigger a shorterm bear trap. And the US market was not even involved because of the well calculated timing.

美股，港股，日经已收盘，欧洲即将盘之际，接踵而来所谓希腊危机！
漂亮时间差！

结合2007年7月次贷危机爆发时的前后消息顺序，此时预期后市走势：

1，欧盟央行出手整治，希腊危机据信当然是小意思。随即，指数在不太长的时间内会挺住，但上涨空间有限，主要目的：让最后的空头投降！
2，跌势开始时，会先找个理由猛跌。然后，美国金融系统接着爆料。其实材料多得很，信手拈来几个candidates：房屋市场违约率及展望，信用卡default percentage and amount及展望，垃圾毒债券再次闹腾Fed，美国金融市场持有外国债券酿成损失，美国经济复苏前景漫漫，失业型复苏理论上无法成立，美国需要强势美元带动美元资产回流美国促进就业所以Fed需要升息，其它冷不防的scandal等等。
3，然后，随着美国金融系统将要采取措施或否认相关猜测，美股带领全球股市大幅反弹。
4，美国国会和奥巴马继续讨论如何接着注入更多货币救市。股市在希望中，开始进入新的一轮漫漫熊途。

Live Update：

美东时间12月1日凌晨3点，ES期指显著相对带量突破1098，截止完稿时，涨9.50点至1104.25。