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没人能知道股市什么时候涨或跌,你也不能!

(2018-01-17 19:49:02) 下一个

We have always heard the people talking about the stock market.  Some will say when the market will crash, or when the market will reach a level, or when you should buy this, or when you should sell that, etc.  But in reality, no one knows when the market will go up or come down.  If someone is telling you that he/she knows, they are lying. 

Investment is a long-term process.  You should be consistent and steady.  The following two examples demonstrate why you should never time the market.  We will use Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF symbol VTI prices.

1st example shows that the investor does not time the market whether the stock market is up or down.

 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) without buying / selling

Date

No. of Shares

 VTI Price

              Total

Notes

10/9/2007

         12,862

77.75

     1,000,020

The portfolio reached $1M

1/17/2018

         12,862

141.35

     1,818,043

 

2nd example shows that the investor going in to and out of the stock market twice in the past 10 years.

 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) with buying / selling

Date

No. of Shares

 VTI Price

Total

Notes

10/9/2007

         12,862

77.75

   1,000,020

The portfolio reached $1M

9/15/2008

         12,862

33.70

433,449

Sold when Lehman Brother filing for bankruptcy

3/9/2011

           6,342

68.35

433,449

Going into the market again

11/8/2016

           6,342

109.62

695,210

Sold when Trump was elected

5/8/2017

           5,645

123.14

695,210

Bought when the market kept going up

1/17/2018

           5,645

141.35

798,018

 

You can see the results which is very significant, the difference is about over $1M.  Of course, I might use an extreme example, but there are a lot of people who time the market without knowing the consequence.

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hhtt 回复 悄悄话 回复 'hz82000' 的评论 : 谢谢杭州姐姐来访!
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