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63%美国人望普选选总统 抛弃选举团旧制

(2022-08-11 04:59:59) 下一个

Historians privately warn Biden that America's democracy is teetering

https://www.bendbulletin.com/nation/historians-privately-warn-biden-that-americas-democracy-is-teetering/article_b6d34672-512e-5458-a41f-00652afc8901.html 

Most Americans support using the popular vote to decide U.S. presidents, data shows

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/10/1116688726/most-americans-support-using-the-popular-vote-to-decide-u-s-presidents-data-show? 

世界说  2022/08/10 23:52 PM

据华盛顿邮报 8月10日报道 美国总统拜登上周在白宫与一群历史学家举行了会谈,这些专家就美国国内外民主的状况向拜登发出了警告。

Histrians privately warn Biden that America's democracy is teetering

据多位熟悉会谈情况的人士透露,8月4日的谈话是拜登与一群精英学者之间的对话,这些学者认为当前是现代历史上民主治理最危险的时刻之一。

据报道,学者们将美国面临的威胁与美国内战前夕以及二战前夕的情况进行了比较,其中一些讨论集中在当今形势与二战前状况的相似之处。一位熟悉交流情况的人士表示,这次谈话中的很多内容都是关于民主价值观和制度之间的较量以及全球走向专制的趋势。
 
报道指出,长期以来,对反民主趋势的担忧一直激励着拜登,他在2020年竞选活动开始时曾表示,一场国家灵魂之战正在进行中。民主党人普遍预计,如果拜登决定推进这一想法,特别是如果川普再次成为他在大选中的对手,那么同样的想法将成为拜登竞选连任的基础。

据介绍,总统历史学家会定期向总统通报情况,上周在白宫进行的会谈就属于此类活动。这种做法至少可以追溯到里根政府时期,美国前总统奥巴马曾多次召集此类团体进行会谈,但在美国前总统川普执政时,这种活动失宠了。

对拜登而言,此类会谈是利用外部专家来帮他解决任内所面临的多重危机的常规做法之一,美国前总统克林顿曾在今年5月就如何应对通货膨胀和中期选举与拜登进行了交谈;在俄乌冲突爆发之前,包括前共和党顾问在内的一群外交政策专家,在今年1月曾前往白宫向拜登通报了情况。

63%美国人望普选选总统 选举团旧制遭批

洛杉矶华人资讯网   2022/08/11 00:45 AM

据NPR新闻美东时间8月10日报道 根据美国民调中心皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的数据,多数美国人支持普选选举总统,而不是通过选举团投票选举总统。

Most Americans support using the popular vote to decide U.S. presidents,

据报道,目前,约63%的美国人支持普选,较2021年1月有所上升,据悉,2021年1月,该比例为55%。而支持保留选举人团制度的比例从1月的43%下降至如今的35%。

报道称,该占比与政党息息相关。据报道,80%的民主党人赞成采用普选制,而仅42%的共和党人支持这一举措,这一比例与2016年大选后相比有较大的提升,当时共和党人的支持率仅为27%。

此外,此选择与年龄也存在关系。在18岁至29岁的美国人中,10人中有7人支持普选(70%),而65岁以上的美国人中,有56%支持普选。

据悉,美国选举人票共538张,其中100名参议员和435名众议员每人一票,华盛顿特区三名代表各一票。此外,选举人团制度下多州实行“赢者通吃”制度,即任何一个总统候选人,如果赢得了一个州的多数人投票,就算赢得了这个州所有的选举人票。候选人在各州赢得的选举人票累计超过538票的一半(270张),则当选总统。

在美国历史上,大多数总统候选人既赢得了普选,又赢得选举人票而当选总统。此前,有五位总统赢得了选举人票,但没有赢得普选,乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)和川普就是其中两位。

报道称,如今,越来越多的人对选举团制度带来的问题提出批评。哈佛大学政治学家高塔姆·穆昆达(Gautam Mukunda)称,选举团制度之所以不公平,其中一点原因是,每个州根据其在众议院和参议院的代表人数获得选举人,这意味着小州获得了额外的选票。据悉,美国参议员每州2名,共100名,任期6年,每两年改选1/3,而众议员按各州的人口比例分配名额选出,共435名,任期两年,期满全部改选。

穆昆达表示,在总统选举中,怀俄明州(约58万)的人拥有的权力是加利福尼亚州(约3,930万,位列美国各州第一)的人的近四倍,这在最基本的层面上与民主制度的主张背道而驰。

此外,该制度使得“关键州”权重更重。1月6日,当川普及其支持者向国会施压,要求推翻拜登在选举团的胜利时,这种脆弱性得到了充分展现。报道称,如果没有选举团,他们就很难要求国会推翻700万选民的意愿。而这也意味着选举团制度使得几个州可能对总统选举产生巨大的控制力。

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Historians privately warn Biden that America's democracy is teetering
By Michael Scherer, Ashley Parker and Tyler Pager   
 

President Joe Biden paused last week, during one of the busiest stretches of his presidency, for a nearly two-hour private history lesson from a group of academics who raised alarms about the dire condition of democracy at home and abroad.

The conversation during a ferocious lightning storm on Aug. 4 unfolded as a sort of Socratic dialogue between the commander in chief and a select group of scholars, who painted the current moment as among the most perilous in modern history for democratic governance, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions who requested anonymity to describe a private meeting.

Comparisons were made to the years before the 1860 election when Abraham Lincoln warned that a "house divided against itself cannot stand" and the lead-up to the 1940 election, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt battled rising domestic sympathy for European fascism and resistance to the United States joining World War II.

The diversion was, for Biden, part of a regular effort to use outside experts, in private White House meetings, to help him work through his approach to multiple crises facing his presidency. Former President Bill Clinton spoke with Biden in May about how to navigate inflation and the midterm elections. A group of foreign policy experts, including former Republican advisers, came to the White House in January to brief Biden before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

These meetings have come as Biden faces the isolation that is endemic to presidency, a problem that some Democrats say has been worsened by the coronavirus pandemic, which restricted visitors through much of the first year of his presidency, and by the insular quality of Biden's inner circle, made up of staffers who have worked with him for decades.

Biden, at these tabletop sessions, often spends hours asking questions and testing assumptions, participants say.

Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama, briefed Biden with other experts before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and before the president's 2021 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva.

"They get out of their bubble," McFaul said. "I worked at the White House for three years before going to Moscow, and comparatively I think they do that in a much more strategic way than we used to do in the Obama administration. It feels that they are more engaged."

McFaul was among a socially distanced group that met to discuss Ukraine in the East Room earlier this year, along with former diplomat Richard Haass, journalist Fareed Zakaria, analyst Ian Bremmer, former National Security Council adviser Fiona Hill and retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO.

Biden sat at the center of a dining table with the experts gathered at either end to keep the president a COVID-safe 6 feet from the group. As some participants, including McFaul and Stavridis, appeared remotely on a screen, Biden began with brief comments and then spent about two hours asking questions.

"They really wanted outside-the-box thinking of, is there any way that this war, which will be horrible for everyone involved, can be stopped? Can we stop it? How can we stop it?" Bremmer said. "All of my interactions [with the White House] in the last few years have been uniformly open, constructive and really wanting to get my best sense of where they're getting it right and where they're not."

White House spokesman Andrew Bates said the president "values hearing from a wide range of experts." NSC spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said, "We are in regular touch with a diverse, bipartisan collection of experts and stakeholders on a variety of topics, including Russia's unprovoked war in Ukraine."

At a news conference in January, Biden said a priority of his second year in office was to get more input from academia, editorial writers, think tanks and other outside experts. "Seeking more input, more information, more constructive criticism about what I should and shouldn't be doing," he told reporters.

Some meetings have been more exclusive. At a private lunch with Biden on May 2, Clinton praised his successor's efforts to build a multinational coalition supporting Ukraine.

But he also urged Biden to lean into speaking about his administration's efforts to battle inflation, with the expectation that price pressures would ease in the weeks before the midterm elections, according to people briefed on the exchange. Clinton suggested that Biden position himself to take credit for inflation reductions, if they come.

Clinton also urged Biden to create a sharp policy contrast with Republicans, latching especially onto the policy proposals of Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who had proposed a five-year sunset on all federal laws, including Social Security and Medicare, and tax increases on many Americans who are not working.

As it happened, the White House was already planning a similar contrast, and days later Biden publicly laid into what he called the "ultra MAGA agenda," a reference to the Make America Great Again movement organized around former president Donald Trump.

The historians Biden has invited to the White House generally take a longer view, placing his presidency in the context of America's path since its founding. Biden — who is 78 and has seen nine presidents up close, starting with Richard Nixon — has signaled that he has thought about what makes some presidencies more successful than others.

The group that gathered in the White House Map Room last week was part of a regular effort by presidential historians to brief presidents, a practice that dates at least as far back as the Reagan administration. Obama convened such groups multiple times, though the sessions fell out of favor under Trump.

Following a similar meeting with Biden last spring, the Aug. 4 gathering was distinguished by its relatively small size and the focus of the participants on the rise of totalitarianism around the world and the threat to democracy at home. They included Biden's occasional speechwriter Jon Meacham, journalist Anne Applebaum, Princeton professor Sean Wilentz, University of Virginia historian Allida Black and presidential historian Michael Beschloss. White House senior adviser Anita Dunn and head speechwriter Vinay Reddy also sat at the table.

Biden, who was still testing positive for the coronavirus, appeared on a television monitor that was set up next to the room's fireplace, taking notes as he sat two floors up in the Treaty Room that is part of the White House residence. Senior adviser Mike Donilon also appeared on-screen, say people familiar with the events.

During the discussion, a loud crack of thunder could be heard, which the participants later found out coincided with a lightning strike that killed three people in Lafayette Square, across the street from the White House.

One person familiar with the exchange said the conversation was mostly a way for Biden to hear and think about the larger context in which his tenure is unfolding. He did not make any major pronouncements or discuss his plans for the future.

"A lot of the conversation was about the larger context of the contest between democratic values and institutions and the trends toward autocracy globally," the person said.

Most of the experts in attendance have been outspoken in recent months about the threat they see to the American democratic project, after the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, the continued denial by some Republicans of the 2020 election results and the efforts of election deniers to seek state office.

Applebaum, a contributor to the Atlantic, recently published a book on eroding democratic norms called "Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism." Black, a longtime adviser to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, was recently named to the board of Vanderbilt University's Project on Unity and American Democracy, which aims to reduce political polarization.

Beschloss, a presidential historian who regularly appears on NBC and MSNBC, has recently become more outspoken about what he sees as the need for Biden to battle anti-democratic forces in the country.

"I think he has got to talk tonight about the fact that we are all in existential danger of having our democracy and democracies around the world destroyed," Beschloss said in March on MSNBC, before Biden delivered the State of the Union address.

Wilentz, prizewinning author of "The Rise of American Democracy: Jefferson to Lincoln," has also voiced alarm in recent months about the state of the country. "We're on the verge of what Hamilton in 'The Federalist' called government by brute force," Wilentz told the Hill last month.

Some of last week's discussion focused on similarities between today's landscape and the period leading up to World War II, when growing authoritarianism abroad found its disturbing echo in the United States.

As Germany's Adolf Hitler and Italy's Benito Mussolini consolidated their power in the 1930s, the Rev. Charles Coughlin used his radio broadcast to spread a populist anti-Semitic message in the United States. Sen. Huey Long, D-La., also rallied Americans against Roosevelt and showed sympathies for dictatorial government.

Concerns about anti-democratic trends have long animated Biden, who began his 2020 campaign by arguing that a "battle for the soul of the nation" was underway, a play on the phrase used by Meacham to title his 2018 book "The Soul of America: The Battle for Our Better Angels."

Democrats broadly expect the same ideas will anchor Biden's reelection campaign, if he decides to move forward with one, especially if Trump is his opponent again.

Biden has continued to bring up such themes in his public speeches, most recently in a July address to a law enforcement group, where he criticized Trump for taking no immediate action as the rioters he had inspired attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an effort to overturn the results of the recent presidential election.

"You can't be pro-insurrection and pro-democracy," Biden told the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives. "You can't be pro-insurrection and pro-American."

Most Americans support using the popular vote to decide U.S. presidents, data shows

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/10/1116688726/most-americans-support-using-the-popular-vote-to-decide-u-s-presidents-data-show?

In this Jan. 20, 2001, file photo, standing in the rain, President George W. Bush waves as he watches his inaugural parade pass by the White House viewing stand in Washington, Saturday afternoon, Jan. 20, 2001. With him are his wife and first lady Laura Bush and his father, former President George H.W. Bush.

STEPHAN SAVOIA/AP

Most Americans support using the popular vote and not the electoral college vote to select a president, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

About 63% of Americans support using the popular vote, compared to 35% who would rather keep the electoral college system.

Approval for the popular vote is up from January 2021, when 55% of Americans said they back the change; 43% supported keeping the electoral college at that time.

Opinions on the systems varied sharply according to political party affiliation. 80% of Democrats approve of moving to a popular vote system, while 42% of Republicans support the move. Though, many more Republicans support using the popular vote system now than after the 2016 election, when support was at 27%.

There is also an age divide: 7 out of 10 Americans from ages 18 to 29 support using the popular vote, compared to 56% in Americans over 65 years old.

 
A Growing Number Of Critics Raise Alarms About The Electoral College

There have been five presidents who won the electoral vote, but not the popular vote — John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush and Donald Trump.

There are 538 electors, one for each U.S. senator and U.S. representative, plus three for Washington, D.C., which gets three electoral votes in the presidential election even though it has no voting representation in Congress.

The number of electors has changed through history as the number of elected members of Congress has changed with the country's expansion and population growth.

How electors get picked varies by state, but in general state parties file slates of names for who the electors will be. They include people with ties to those state parties, like current and former party officials, state lawmakers and party activists. They're selected either at state party conventions or by party central committees.

The Pew survey was conducted from June 27 to July 4 of this year.

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