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我亲中国？ 我接受这个标签，前外交部长乔治·杨在权衡中美紧张局势时说
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/george-yeo-accepts-pro-bejing-label-1975616
作者：LOW YOUJIN 2022 年 8 月 23 日 在 Instagram 和 Tiktok 上关注我们，并加入我们的 Telegram 频道以获取最新消息。
前外交部长 George Yeo（如图）在 2019 年退休前曾在香港担任嘉里物流网络董事长兼执行董事数年。
前外交部长杨致远表示，有一种误解认为中国是一只会“扑过来吃掉你”的老虎，他说，实际上，它的本性就像一只熊猫，如果被愚弄，它会严重伤害某人。他说美国和中国的领导人都不希望战争，但可能会发生意外。
如果战争爆发，他说这将使新加坡陷入困境，两个超级大国之间的冲突也可能对世界造成灾难性后果
新加坡——前外交部长乔治·杨 (George Yeo) 表示，美国和中国的领导人可能都不希望发生战争，但他们经常被大众情绪所左右，这可能导致一场对整个世界来说都是“灾难性”的冲突。
新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院访问学者表示，有一种误解认为中国是一只会“扑过来吃掉你”的老虎，而事实是它的本性是 一只熊猫。
“但中国必须表明它的本性不是老虎，而是熊猫，”他补充说。
自 2011 年卸任公职以来，杨先生就中国发表了大量演讲和文章。
这位 67 岁的老人在周一（8 月 22 日）接受《今日报》采访时给出了他的类比，他说熊猫可能看起来很可爱，但“你不能拿它开玩笑。 你可能会受到严重伤害”。
杨先生接受了他被一些人视为亲北京的事实，他正在接受采访以配合他的书的发布，这本书名为 George Yeo：Musings，该书基于对资深媒体从业者 Woon Tai Ho 的采访，并且是 打算成为三本书中的第一本书。
除了担任新加坡外交部长一职外，杨先生还在其 23 年的职业生涯中的不同时期担任过卫生、贸易和工业以及信息和艺术部长。 当分水岭 2011 年大选 (GE) 缩短了他的政治生涯时，他离开了办公室。
杨先生在 2019 年退休前曾在香港担任嘉里物流网络董事长兼执行董事多年，周一表示，中国是一个古老的文明，具有非常保守的本能，这使得它可以预测。
他说，每个中国朝代都筑起了城墙，而且还在资本市场上为好莱坞电影甚至游戏筑墙。
“他们为什么要那样做？ 他们为什么不开放？ 他们喜欢他们的同质性，这使得治理更容易。”
但随着美国众议院议长南希佩洛西8月2日访问台湾后两个超级大国之间的紧张局势升级，他表示双方现在都在计划战争。
“中国当然不希望发生战争，但在美国，有些人认为战争是不可避免的……如果不可避免，最好早日发生，而不是晚发生，因为中国还没有那么强大。”
“
中国当然不希望，但在美国，有些人认为战争是不可避免的……如果不可避免，最好早点，而不是晚点，因为中国还没有那么强大。
前内阁部长乔治·杨谈中美战争前景
”
杨先生说，已经有研究表明，如果战争宜早不宜迟，中国将血流成河，而美国将受到伤害。
但是，如果再过10年再举行，双方都将血流成河。
“关键是，你等待的时间越长，大中华区的相对实力就越大，”他补充道。
当被问及他何时预见到两国之间会爆发战争时，杨先生表示，历史充满了意外，战争“并没有像我们冷分析所认为的那样发生”。
这是因为演员们并非仅根据分析采取行动，而是“被大众的激情所驱使”，并且可能会发生事故。
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在战争与和平中，在最高层，人们可能不想要战争。 在最底层，事情发生了，领导人被大众情绪所吸引，尤其是在印度和美国这样喧闹的民主国家。
前内阁部长乔治·杨
“在战争与和平中，在高层，人们可能不想要战争。在底层，事情发生了，领导人被大众情绪所左右，尤其是在印度和美国这样喧闹的民主国家，”杨先生说。
“中国纪律严明得多，他们控制着媒体，如果有必要，他们可以降低公众温度。如果需要，他们可以提高温度，”他补充说。
“但在西方和印度，有时你会被公众情绪所引导。中国必须在他们自己的计算中考虑到这一点，其他人的行为不像你。因此，你不能误读他们对你行为的反应。”
杨先生表示，如果美国总统拜登是一位“更强大的领导人”，佩洛西夫人访问台湾本可以避免。
中国认为台湾是一个分裂的省份，根据美国承认的一个中国政策，台湾应该是其领土的一部分，但条件是未经双方同意不得改变现状。
美国对中国入侵台湾时是否介入保卫台湾采取“战略模糊”态度。
政治分析人士此前告诉《今日报》，中国认为佩洛西夫人此行是一种政治恐吓，是对其主权和领土完整的不尊重。
因此，如果战争爆发，杨先生表示，美国和中国都知道这将是“对整个世界而言都是灾难性的，而不仅仅是对两国而言”。
他补充说，这也将使新加坡处于非常紧张的境地。
“首先，我们与台湾有着特殊的关系。 我们那里有人。 我想如果我在 Mindef（国防部），我就会制定应急计划。”
而美国在新加坡拥有舰船和飞机，是否允许西方强国继续利用新加坡将成为一个问题。
“我不在政府工作，但我毫不怀疑我们有很多人花很多时间思考这个问题，并担心这个问题，”他说。
不要对快照做出判断
关于新加坡对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应，杨先生表示，当出现“大人物殴打小人物的快照”时，人们很自然地会对受害者表示同情，尤其是对于小国新加坡而言。但他说，从更大的背景来看，现实并非如此简单。
《今日报》此前曾报道，拥有约 4300 万人口的比缅甸略小的乌克兰希望加入由欧洲和北美 30 个国家组成的军事联盟北约，但俄罗斯担心任何此类举动都会打破全球力量平衡 它。
“事情以这种方式发生是有原因的，”杨先生说。 “我不同意大佬会这样反应，但看到整个视频，我能理解大佬为什么要付出高昂的代价，才会做出这样的举动。”
他又打个比方说，当发生机动车事故时，播放整个视频很重要，“否则，你就是在根据快照做出判断”。
杨先生对新加坡政府对俄罗斯实施制裁而不是等待联合国安理会做出决定感到惊讶，因为这“打破了一个危险的先例”。
“但随后的论点是，俄罗斯拥有否决权（作为安理会成员）......（而且它）永远不会同意对自己实施制裁。 所以我们必须表明立场。”
他补充说，即使美国不对新加坡施加压力，“我们也会感受到压力”，因为新加坡在金融部门和军事硬件等领域对美国的依赖。
当时的问题是，新加坡是否应该超越发表强硬声明对俄罗斯实施制裁。
“当我们决定制裁时，制裁的范围有多大？ 我知道我们的制裁非常有限，”他说。
“最后……我认为这是一种妥协。 他们（政府）不想走得太远。 但同时，遇到这样的事情不表态，我们以后会后悔的。
“所以有时候，巧妙地处理它并不能取悦任何人。 但以这种或另一种方式做更多的事情可能会给我们自己带来更大的成本。”
老叶归根
当TODAY谈到中国对杨先生的重要性时，他回应说，中国人有句老话，叶老了，又回到了根。
他谈到了他父亲的情况，他的“中国性”随着年龄的增长而变得更加强烈，并举了一个例子，说明年长的父亲如何在一次奥运会上为中国队加油。
“他就是这么觉得的。 随着年龄的增长，您的传统意识和血统意识会变得更强。”
当《今日报》指出，一些年轻的新加坡华人可能更认同自己的国籍而不是种族时，杨先生说：“在新加坡，你可以这么说。
“如果你是在美国的新加坡华人，你会更强烈地感受到自己的华人气质，因为别人看到你的华人气质，而你无法逃避。”
今年 3 月初，福克斯新闻主持人塔克卡尔森 (Tucker Carlson) 在他的 Facebook 页面上分享了一段视频，杨先生还被问及有关美国资助乌克兰生物项目的说法。
在帖子的标题中，他只是写道：“来自一个意想不到的地方”，由于视频剪辑已经被发现是假的，这引起了网络社区多个部分的批评。
杨先生澄清说，他并不是说他同意该视频的信息，而只是觉得它很吸引人，因为“通常非常反华的卡尔森先生站在了中国一边”。
当被问及杨先生关于中国的言论，加上他在社交媒体上发表的有关中国的帖子，是否会被某些人视为“亲中国”时，杨先生没有表示反对。
“好吧，我接受了。 但我希望那些人会读我的书，以及接下来的两本书，然后对我是谁有一个全面的评价。”
Me pro-China? I accept the label, says ex-foreign minister George Yeo as he weighs in on Sino-US tensions
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/george-yeo-accepts-pro-bejing-label-1975616
BY LOW YOUJIN August 23, 2022 Follow us on Instagram and Tiktok, and join our Telegram channel for the latest updates.
Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo (pictured) was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019.
- Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will "leap at you and eat you up”
- Its nature, in reality, is that of a panda that will maul someone badly if fooled around with, he said
- He said neither leaders in the US or China hope for war, but accidents can happen
- And if war breaks out, he said it would leave Singapore in a tight spot
- The conflict between the two superpowers could have cataclysmic consequences for the world as well
The visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will “leap at you and eat you up”, when the reality is that its nature is that of a panda.
"But China has got to signal that its nature is not that of a tiger, but a panda," he added.
Since he left public office in 2011, Mr Yeo has spoken and written extensively on China.
In his analogy, which the 67-year-old gave during an interview with TODAY on Monday (Aug 22), he said that the panda may look cute, but “you don’t fool around with it. You can be badly mauled”.
Mr Yeo, who accepted that he is seen as being pro-Beijing by some, was giving an interview to coincide with the launch of his book, titled George Yeo: Musings, which is based on interviews with veteran media practitioner Woon Tai Ho and is intended to be the first of three books.
Aside from his last post as Singapore's foreign affairs minister, Mr Yeo has also been minister for health, trade and industry, and information and the arts at various points of his 23-year career. He left office when the watershed 2011 General Election (GE) cut short his political career.
Mr Yeo, who was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019, said on Monday that China is an old civilisation with very conservative instincts that makes it predictable.
Every Chinese dynasty, he said, has built walls, and it continues to do so in the capital market, for Hollywood movies and even games.
“Why do they do that? Why don’t they open up? They like their homogeneity, this makes it easier to govern.”
But with tensions between the two superpowers rising after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on Aug 2, he said that both sides are now planning for war.
“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable… And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.''
“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable…And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.Former Cabinet minister George Yeo on the prospect of war between China and the United States”
Mr Yeo said studies have been done, which indicated that if a war is held sooner rather than later, China will be badly bloodied, while the US will be hurt.
However, if it is held 10 years from now, both sides will be badly bloodied.
“The point is, the longer you wait, the greater China’s relative strength is,” he added.
When asked when he foresaw war between the two nations breaking out, Mr Yeo said that history is full of surprises and that war “doesn't happen in the way we think it would, by cold analysis”.
This is because the actors do not act on the basis of analysis alone, but rather, are “driven by mass passions” and accidents can happen.
“In war and peace, at the top, people may not want war. At the bottom, things happen and leaders are pulled by mass emotions, particularly in boisterous democracies, like India and US.Former Cabinet minister George Yeo”
"China is much more disciplined, they control the media, they can lower public temperature, if they have to. They can raise it, if they need to," he added.
"But in the West and India, sometimes you are led by public emotions. China has to factor this in their own calculations, that others don’t behave like you. Therefore, you must not misread their reactions to your actions."
Mr Yeo said that Mrs Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could have been prevented if US President Joe Biden was a “stronger leader”.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that should be part of its territory under the one-China policy, which the US recognises, with the proviso that the status quo should not be altered without the consent of both parties.
The US adopts an attitude of "strategic ambiguity" as to whether it would intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.
Should war break out, as a result, Mr Yeo said that both the US and China know it will be “cataclysmic for the entire world, not just for the two countries”.
This would also leave Singapore in a very tight position, he added.
“To begin with, we have a special relationship with Taiwan. We have people there. I think if I were in Mindef (the Ministry of Defence), I’ll be having contingency planning.”
And as the US has ships and aircraft in Singapore, it will become a question of whether to allow the Western power to continue using the country.
“I’m not in Government, but I have no doubts we have a lot of people spending a lot of time thinking about this, and worrying about this,” he said.
DON'T MAKE JUDGEMENTS ON SNAPSHOTS
On Singapore’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Yeo said that when there is a “snapshot of a big guy beating up a small guy”, it is natural to feel sympathetic for the victim, particularly so for tiny Singapore.
But the reality is not so simple when viewed in a larger context, he said.
TODAY previously reported that Ukraine, a nation slightly smaller than Myanmar with about 43 million people, wanted to join Nato, a military alliance of 30 countries in Europe and North America, but Russia is concerned that any such move would tip the global power balance against it.
“There was a reason why things happen this way,” Mr Yeo said. “I don’t agree the big guy should react this way, but I can understand when I see the entire video, why the big guy, at a high cost to himself, decides to take this course of action.”
Using another analogy, he said that when there is a motor vehicle accident, it is important to play the entire video, “otherwise, you're forming your judgement based upon a snapshot”.
Mr Yeo was surprised that the Singapore Government issued sanctions against Russia, rather than wait for a decision by the United Nations Security Council, because this “breaches a dangerous precedent”.
He added that even if the US did not add pressure on Singapore, “we would have felt the pressure anyway” because of Singapore’s dependence on US in areas such as the financial sector and military hardware.
The question then, was whether Singapore should have gone beyond making strong statements to impose sanctions on Russia.
“And when we decide on sanctions, how broad are the sanctions? I understand our sanctions are quite limited,” he said.
“In the end… I think it was a compromise. They (the Government) didn't want to go too far. But at the same time, to not take a position when something like this happens, we will regret later.
“So finessing it, sometimes, pleases nobody. But doing it more one way or the other may have resulted in greater costs to ourselves.”
OLD LEAVES FALL BACK TO THEIR ROOTS
When TODAY broached the topic of what importance China has to Mr Yeo, he responded that the Chinese have a saying that when the leaves are old, they fall back to their roots.
He spoke about how this was the case for his father, whose “Chinese-ness” grew stronger in his older age, citing an example of how the older man was rooting for the Chinese team during one Olympic Game.
“That’s how he felt. As you grow older, your sense of tradition and your ancestry become stronger.”
When TODAY pointed out that some younger Chinese Singaporeans may identify themselves more strongly with their nationality than ethnicity, Mr Yeo said: “In Singapore, you can say that.
“If you’re a Singaporean Chinese in America, you will feel much more strongly in your Chinese-ness because others see you in your Chinese-ness, and you can’t escape it.”
Mr Yeo was also asked about a video clip he shared in early March this year on his Facebook page by Fox News host Tucker Carlson about claims that the US was funding biological programmes in Ukraine.
In his caption for the post, he merely wrote: “From an unexpected quarter”, which drew criticisms from several segments of the online community since the video clip had been already been found to be false.
Mr Yeo clarified that he was not saying that he agreed with the video’s message, but that he simply found it fascinating because Mr Carlson, “who is normally very anti-China, took China’s side”.
When probed if what Mr Yeo has been saying about China, combined with his posts about the country on social media, might be seen by some as “pro-China”, Mr Yeo did not disagree.
“Well, I accept that. But I hope those people will read my book, and the coming two ones, and then have an overall evaluation of who I am.”
