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Alan Freeman, U of manitoba 修昔底德陷阱荒谬

(2024-04-23 05:03:58) 下一个

Alan Freeman, University of manitoba

alan.freeman@umanitoba.ca 
He is co-director with Radhika Desai of the Geopolitical Economy Research Unit. 
 
List of writings;
 
The Geopolitical Economy Research and Education Trust is a charitable organisation.

Alan Freeman (Chair)

Robert Chernomas Email:   Robert.Chernomas@umanitoba.ca  

Phone: (204) 474-9510  Fax:   (204) 474-7681   Department of Economics

  University of Manitoba

Radhika Desai

Professor Political Studies, University of Manitoba

(204) 474-9818  Radhika.Desai@umanitoba.ca

Mark Hudson

University of Manitoba, Sociology, Faculty Member

mark.hudson@umanitoba.ca

Peter Kulchyski

Full Professor P - 204-474-7026  F - 204-474-7657

Email: peter.kulchyski@umanitoba.ca

John Serieux

Kees Van Der Pijl

Susan Dianne Brophy

Julie Guard

中美難免一戰?! 就GDP看美國正在衰落?! 美國衰落是誰的錯?! 美國還能拖其他國家下水?!【國際360】20240423

 

Geopolitical Economy Research Group, Business School, Director

alan.freeman@umanitoba.ca 

Date of Birth: 10th April, 1946 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/alan-freeman-bb5a3a7/?originalSubdomain=ca

艾伦·弗里曼是一位退休但热衷于研究的文化经济学家。 他曾在英国伦敦市长工作,主要负责生活工资、创新、文化和创意产业以及世界城市的基准制定。 他住在加拿大温尼伯

他与拉迪卡·德赛 (Radhika Desai) 共同担任地缘政治经济研究室主任。

他最近与哈桑·巴赫希(Hasan Bakhshi)和彼得·希格斯(Peter Higgs)一起完成了英国智库国家科学、技术和艺术基金会(NESTA)的两份报告,该报告为创意产业的定义和衡量建立了新标准。 他担任英国 DCMS 创意产业工作组的专家顾问,促使 DCMS 采用了该标准。 他是全球城市文化论坛的专家顾问,也是《伦敦:文化审计》的主编,《伦敦:文化审计》是论坛对 25 个世界城市的文化资产和活动进行基准测试的先驱。

他发表了 98 篇有关经济和政治的文章,并合编了四本书。 他与拉迪卡·德赛 (Radhika Desai) 共同编辑了两本丛书:曼彻斯特大学出版社的《地缘政治经济》和冥王星图书公司的《世界资本主义的未来》。 他是世界政治经济学协会副主席。

他是预测 2008 年经济崩溃的经济学家“小俱乐部”之一,并且在 2008 年还预测,经济危机不会离开工业化国家,除非这些国家在 2008 年进行了与美国政府支出规模相当的公共投资。 第二次世界大战(约占 GDP 的 55%)。

他拥有数学、计算机和经济学方面的高等教育资格。他的职业生涯包括 15 年程序员生涯、13 年格林威治大学经济学高级讲师生涯以及 10 年 GLA 公务员生涯。

他是温尼伯交响乐团、马尼托巴视频池和马尼托巴艺术协会的董事会成员

Alan Freeman

https://geopoliticaleconomy.academia.edu/AlanFreeman/CurriculumVitae

Geopolitical Economy Research Group, Business School, Director

EDUCATION 
BSc(Hons) Mathematics 1 st Class, University College, London, 1965 
Diploma in Computer Science, Edinburgh University, 1968 
MSc Economics, Birkbeck College, London, 1978 

LANGUAGES 
Fluent: English, French, Spanish, Italian, German; 
Reading: Russian, Turkish 

WEBSITES

geopoliticaleconomy.academia.edu/AlanFreeman ideas.repec.org/e/pfr102.html

Retired from Full-Time Employment 

Research Affiliate, University of Manitoba 

MAIN CURRENT ACTIVITIES 
Co-Director, Geopolitical Economy Research Group, University of Manitoba (2015-present) 
Secretary, Geopolitical Economy Research and Education Trust (2014-present) 
Co-Editor, Geopolitical Economy Book series, Manchester University Press (2015-present) 

MAIN PRIOR EMPLOYMENT 

Principal Economist, Greater London Authority, 2001-2011 
Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich, 1991-2001 
Freelance Programmer and Technical Trainer, 1965-1989

Freelance Programmer and Technical Trainer, 1965-198

linkedin  About Alan Freeman

https://www.linkedin.com/in/alan-freeman-bb5a3a7/?originalSubdomain=ca

Alan Freeman is a retired but research-active cultural economist. He formerly worked at for the Mayor of London, England where he held lead responsibility for the Living Wage, Innovation, Cultural and Creative Industries and benchmarking World Cities. He lives in Winnipeg, Canada

He is co-director with Radhika Desai of the Geopolitical Economy Research Unit. 

With Hasan Bakhshi and Peter Higgs he has recently completed two report by the UK think tank called National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (NESTA), which established a new standard for the definition and measurement of the Creative Industries. He served as expert advisor to the UK DCMS taskforce on the creative industries which led to the adoption of this standard by DCMS. He is an expert advisor to the Global Cities Culture Forum and was lead editor for London: A Cultural Audit, the precursor of the Forum's activities in benchmarking the cultural assets and activities of 25 World Cities

He has published 98 articles on economics and politics and co-edited four books. He is co-editor, with Radhika Desai, of two book series: 'Geopolitical Economy' at Manchester University Press, and of 'the Future of World Capitalism', with Pluto Books. He is a vice-chair of the World Association for Political Economy. 

He is one of the 'small club' of economists who predicted the crash of 2008, and in 2008 also predicted that the economic crisis would not leave the industrialised countries until and unless these countries undertook public investment on the scale associated with US government spending during World War II (about 55% of GDP). 

His Higher Education qualifications are in Mathematics, Computing, and Economics His professional career includes 15 years as a programmer, 13 as a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Greenwich, and 10 years as a civil servant at the GLA. 

He is a Board member of Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra, Video Pool Manitoba, and Manitobans for the Arts

中美難免一戰?! 就GDP看美國正在衰落?! 美國衰落是誰的錯?! 美國還能拖其他國家下水?!【國際360】20240423@Global_Vision

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uLenoYRUuM&ab_channel=

全球大視野 2024年4月23日

這是第一次讓我們稱之為全球南方或第三世界的一個國家, 不僅僅是挑戰美國而是擺脫了美國。為所有人設下的陷阱,中國無法阻止美國的衰落,但可以為美國提供中國的解決方案,希望美國人民會開始效仿。中國輿論製造者有一種傾向,變得相當不尊重。西方政策制定者,因為他們開始擔心。

西方說的都只是為了混淆視聽,從本質上說是為了讓中國的事情變得更加困難。
格雷厄姆與中國學者進行了辯論,他表現得像一個對避免戰爭真誠感興趣的人,這很好,中國人就是要避戰。但我開始擔心,中國會認真看待他的論點。

也許我更擔心的是美國,會認真看待他的論點,因為他認為中美之間終須一戰。那不僅是一個悲觀的信息,但我認為也是一個非常危險的信息,因為如果你認為戰爭是不可避免的,那麼你所能做的就是打這場仗,沒有其他和平的出路。

但第二,由於他提出的論點具有將緊張局勢歸咎於中國的效果,但是以一種微妙的方式。
許多西方的反華評論員說我們不喜歡中國,因為中國做了一些我們認為在道德上是錯誤的事情,你可以質疑那些建立在奴隸制基礎上的國家的道德標準有很多問題,但無論如何 他們似乎認為他們有權,評判其他所有人的所作所為。但格雷厄姆艾利森並沒有說中國做錯了什麼。他說的問題是中國正在增長,我認為這幾乎就是西方人和中國學者感興趣的原因,他說問題是中國做得太好了。

但中國的崛起對美國的世界地位構成了威脅,他做了一個歷史類比,因此提出了修昔底德陷阱,他談到了公元前5世紀的古希臘,也就是2500年前。他說有一場非常著名的戰爭,
叫做伯羅奔尼撒戰爭,這場戰爭是在希臘領土上進行的。

我要說這是他犯的第一個歷史錯誤,它不是在希臘領土上進行的,而是在地中海進行的。但這是因為在希臘占主導地位的是斯巴達,而雅典是一個正在崛起的力量,它不如斯巴達強大,但它很快變得相當富有,這被斯巴達視為一種威脅,每個人在談論那場戰爭時,都會提到一位著名歷史學家,叫修昔底德,這就是為什麼許多人,至少在西方,認為他是現代歷史學之父。他是第一個真正嘗試記錄歷史事實的人,如果他能提供一個不僅僅是故事的敘述。

雖說像《荷馬史詩》 讀起來很精彩,但本質上只是在說這是傳說。他說 我正試圖確定真正發生了什麼,而他本人是一名將軍,他參與了這場戰爭,他談到的很多事件,他知道是因為他在那裡,修昔底德作為消息來源廣受信任,他有一部伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史,他有個評論說,一旦雅典開始崛起,雅典和斯巴達之間的戰爭就不可避免了,然後他做了一個類比,他說,在任何地方你都會看到一個主導的大國,並且有一個正在崛起的大國,將會有一場大國衝突,在崛起的大國和先前占主導地位的大國之間。因此,他推斷並說中國和美國就像雅典和斯巴達一樣。我非常擔心,特別是一些中國學者非常認真地對待這一點。首先,這不是真的,即使你忘記了歷史。如果你只是看中美衝突的原因,這顯然不是真的。
原因不是中國的崛起,原因是美國的衰落。

這是第一個原因,中國做什麼都無法阻止美國的衰落,除非說服美國變得更像中國。在這種情況下,美國就會成功並停止擔心衰落,但他們反對變得像中國的想法,因此,他們繼續衰落,而這種衰落是中美之間不斷擴大差距的真正原因。你看,如果你說斯巴達等於美國,雅典等於中國,那麼你就是在說,這是一場奴隸制國家之間的戰鬥,過去把孩子放在山上等死,只留下那些活下來的人,因為他們要成為戰士,根據這個類比,那就是美國。而雅典是世界民主的中心,就是中國。這對美國來說是個小問題。

但第二個問題是不是雅典的崛起引發了爭端,而是當雅典將自己轉變為一個帝國時,而歷史記錄對此非常清楚,雅典是一個海上強國 它不是陸上強國,你只需要看看,船舶在雅典歷史上扮演的角色,或者我給你看雅典帝國的地圖,這就是雅典。這是希臘的左邊,這個小塊,斯巴達在這兒的底部。雅典 你可以看到位於東海岸,而雅典的盟友或它的殖民地,就是這些小黑點,圍繞在愛琴海周圍一直到黑海。順便說一句,沿著土耳其的海岸線,在當時是波斯。雅典是一個地中海強國,它試圖建立一個地中海的帝國,戰爭中的關鍵時刻,也就是當雅典開始敗退時,是當雅典的統治者將這片綠色弧線,將它從一個防禦聯盟,針對波斯,不是針對土耳其,當時波斯在這裡成為一個陸上強權,在戰爭爆發前僅50年,在當時成為大威脅。雅典將自己轉變為一個帝國,進行了一次災難性的軍事遠征,征服西西里島,但他們失敗了。

那次遠征的領導人阿爾西比亞德斯投靠了波斯人。

而在現代史上沒有類似的事件發生,這是完全不同的事件序列,根本原因是雅典將自己轉變為一個帝國,如果能從中得出任何教訓,那就是在任何情況下,都不要把自己變成一個帝國,對我來說,這就是中國的教訓。

我認為中國正在汲取這一教訓,我沒有看到任何跡象表明中國有任何成為帝國的願望。
除此之外,如果你試圖這樣做,中國可以看看美國發生的事情,歷史的類比是不當的,當前的類比同樣失誤。就今天的事件而言這不是真的,但這也不是真的。

就雅典和斯巴達之間戰爭的真正原因而言,並不是每次你有一個崛起的大國威脅到一個占主導地位的大國,占主導地位的大國就會與崛起的大國作戰。

一個非常典型的例子,中國歷史上也有很多例子,中國歷史學家指出在中國崛起的歷史中,有許多事件根本不適用占主導地位的大國,不會說我們這次要和你打仗,那很有意思,也許我們可以從你那裡學到一些東西,也許可以合作,打一場小仗,然後解決問題之類的,對吧,(資本主義 衝突的原因)。

有一位非常著名的政治軍事領袖,叫馬其頓的腓力二世,他的兒子是亞歷山大,那是雅典北部的一片領土,而亞歷山大正如我們所知,在對抗波斯人方面取得了勝利,實際上粉碎了波斯人,創建了一個龐大的橫跨世界的帝國,他總是與中間的王國和勢力保持間接接觸。但是亞歷山大到達了印度,並直接接觸,打開了貿易路線,這是絲綢之路的前身。

你可以在雅典讀到很多關於,如何對付腓力二世的辯論,有一場辯論,而這場辯論大多數人贊成說,腓力二世對我們來說有好處,他會創造穩定,我們不必擔心與所有這些,像斯巴達那樣的人進行戰鬥,因為我們將成為別人帝國的一部分,讓我們這樣做吧。

而事實上,艾里森寫了一本關於修昔底德陷阱的書,他列舉了許多例子,在這些例子中 國家確實互相開戰,因為新崛起大國引起的大國競爭,圍繞這一點有很多理論,像是世界體系理論,例如,關於霸權的更替等等。

我認為這非常讓人質疑,但無論如何,最有趣的是艾里森所有的例子,都始於資本主義的肇始。古希臘和他引用的例子之間,有1500年的時間差,他對兩者關係都不說明,例如,羅馬和日耳曼,或雅典和亞歷山大之間的關係,他挑選了一些,特定的歷史時期,這與古代世界的時代大不相同。

這是一個很嚴重的歷史錯誤,在歷史分析中是眾所周知的,我很驚訝他不知道,假設僅僅因為某些東西適用於,一套經濟和社會和歷史條件下,它就適用於所有這些條件。其實我認為他列舉的衝突原因,不是大國之間不可避免的競爭,而是資本主義,資本主義本質上是一個競爭的系統,一切都是為了獲得你的財富份額,獲得你的殖民地份額,並把其他人趕出那些殖民地,這樣你就有了更多的權力。

例如,哥倫布,哥倫布的起源以及對美洲的征服,是因為鄂圖曼帝國主導了東方貿易,威尼斯,熱那亞等崛起的城市,與中國貿易的地中海城市,只能通過鄂圖曼人進行貿易。
而鄂圖曼帝國還能獲得大量黃金來源,這非常重要,因為,它被用於貿易和白銀,他們向西方出發,因為他們想找到一條替代路線,最初是通往印度的替代路線。從一開始就是由競爭推動的,從1492年開始,然後國家接連不斷崛起成為主導強國,有人認為英格蘭可能是第一個海上霸權,或者更準確地說,荷蘭可能是第一個。然後英法崛起,英國成為占主導地位的殖民強國,對此毫無疑問。

他們真正發展了現代資本主義,然後有了崛起的挑戰者,有德國和美國。所有這些國家都與英國不一致,並想取代它,無論是與之戰鬥還是支配它,艾里森所追溯的衝突原因,
實際上是資本主義強國之間的競爭,這對美國來說是個問題,因為它是一個資本主義強國,它本質上是競爭性的,但是,這不是中國的錯,這是美國的錯,我要看看能否分享一張圖表,來說明這個問題(美國的衰落)這是一張GDP的圖表,即國內生產總值,美國的經濟實力,從1950年開始,一直到今天。你看,基本上從1950年起就不斷下降,它經歷了一系列危機,與眾所周知的事件相對應。

我給你一個例子,看看1974年,出現了大崩盤,增長率從6%下降到2%,並在2%到3%之間保持了很長一段時間,1974年出現了一次大的經濟衰退,當時非常有名,這是西方第一次出現類似1929年規模的衰退。然後美國復甦了,它是如何恢復的?它通過我們所知道的新自由主義政策,對世界其他地區發起了全面進攻,美國提高了利率,驅使許多原本發展得很好的國家,比如,許多拉丁美洲國家和非洲國家陷入債務,並利用債務強加給他們一些政策,也就是說,他們將成為初級產品的出口國,廉價勞動力產品的出口國,而西方將保持其技術優勢,這非常有效。讓美國的GDP增長率回升至4.6%。但看看發生了什麼,它再次直線下跌,到一個比以前更低的水平。

接下來我們來看蘇聯的覆滅,短暫的大幅躍進,蘇聯的經濟崩潰是普丁崛起的真正原因,因為那對俄羅斯經濟並非好事,正如其中一位主要設計師,傑佛瑞薩克斯承認的那樣。
緊接著它又下降了,然後是亞洲金融危機之後發生的事情,當時美國擺脫了一個很大的金融困境,因為它讓日本人和韓國人為此買單,藉由反常的廣場協議做到了這一點,然後是2008年,美國崩潰到大約0%的水平,然後它上升了一點,每次上升,你都會看到記者說,我們正在復甦之路上,重新上路了。但如果你看看他們描述數字的方式,這些數字站不住腳,因為在這個時期,美國本應該表現得非常好,實際上它的GDP增長率只有2.5%,這是最低的峰值,如果你看圖表上的所有頂部,它們不斷下降,這是戰後歷史上最低的峰值。

從歷史上看,美國經濟處於非常糟糕的狀況,這就是驅動美國所有作為的原因(美國如何增強實力?)。

美國有兩種手段來加強自己的實力,其中一個是它在20世紀60年代嘗試過的,攻擊自己的工人階級。在1960年代,美國的工資和工會力量遭受了一次巨大衝擊。

1968年發生了什麼? 你看到了不滿情緒的爆發,你看到了越南戰爭的交叉點,然後是民權運動,不要忘了它起源於工會運動。

馬丁路德金恩是民權運動中最著名的發言人,一開始就非常清楚地捍衛工人權利,因為美國大多數有色人種都是勞工階級,而他們發現自己正受到壓迫,美國想藉由攻擊工人階級來解決這個問題,結果是災難性的,它在美國社會引發了1968年的叛亂,讓美國陷入了巨大的困難。每次美國攻擊自己的工人階級時,它都會遇到重大的內部困難。有時會採取非常右翼的形式,例如,唐納川普,但美國確實遇到了困難。

另一種方法是讓世界其他地方為你的問題買單,利經濟影響力,這本質上是技術優勢,強迫他們向你提供廉價的原物料,廉價勞動力產品, 礦產, 農業基礎產品。這就是帝國主義的本質。

這一點被一位印度經濟學家在1924年被描述得很好,一位被嚴重忽視的思想家羅易。他只是說世界上富裕的國家,當時他們不稱之為西方,只是稱它們為富國,他們剝削了世界上4/5的勞動力,但窮國只能剝削他們本國的勞動力。美國顯然有巨大的優勢,讓全世界為他們工作,但全世界不想為他們工作,有種近乎本能的反應,在俄烏戰爭後出現了,一個接一個的國家,包括一些你單從美國道德標準來看,可能會忽略的國家,這些國家有相當右翼的政府,專制的、壓迫性的政府。沙烏地阿拉伯,印度都在說我們不想配合美國的做法。

最近美國高級官員訪問非洲,是一場徹底的災難。那些他面對的非洲領導人,被告知跟我們站在一起對抗俄羅斯,他們當場拒絕,他們說我們喜歡與中國合作,我們喜歡與俄羅斯合作,這比美國給我們的好得多。

在全球那4/5的國家中普遍瀰漫一種反抗氛圍,他們說受夠了。

被當成解決美國問題的辦法,中國對美國構成的危險是它表明你不必這樣做,它表明你可以發展自己的經濟。

我讀過林毅夫寫的那篇文章,他說得很好,他稱之為新經濟模式。有些人 包括我在內,會說它實際上是社會主義,這是中國政府的觀點,基本上我同意這一點,它在經濟上比美國更加成功。

這是第一次,我們稱之為全球南方或第三世界的一個國家,不僅僅是挑戰美國,而是擺脫了美國為所有人設下的陷阱。

中國不讓自己成為初級產品的出口國,在許多技術領域超過了美國。

我不想誇大其詞,因為真正技術成就的標準不僅僅是你有多少專利,而是你的人民過得如何。但你看中國的政策,在消除最底層的貧困方面做出了巨大努力。在不久的將來,可能會開始消除中國經濟市場化過程中的不平等,這是一個非凡的貢獻。世界上沒有一個國家,在如此短暫的時間內,讓那麼多人擺脫貧困。這是中國對美國構成的真正威脅,它不允許自己被美國拖累。

那麼,問題是中國能做什麼?(中國能做什麼?),中國無法阻止美國的衰落,但可以為美國提供中國的解決方案,希望美國人民會開始效仿。我認為這很有可能實現,必須為此努力。

但是,最終解決辦法掌握在美國人民和歐洲人民手中,而答案包括要拒絕美國,不能配合美國的行事措施,你將不得不嘗試別的辦法。

這是我得出的主要結論

Not The Thucydides Trap

Why The USA's Decline Is Not China's Fault

THE CHINA ACADEMY  APR 16, 2023

The Thucydides Trap has been a trending topic in China since when it was first introduced to China a decade ago. Numerous academic seminars and closed-door meetings had been devoted to its unsettling hypothesis, that the rise of a challenger, i.e. China, will inevitably lead to tension with the established power, i.e. the United States. The China Academy now has the pleasure of sharing Mr.Alan Freeman's insights on this very topic.

Watch here

Alan Freeman is a co-director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group and an active member of various economic associations. Alan.freeman@umanitoba.ca 

By Alan Freeman 20 February 2023

Mounting tensions between China and the USA have provoked a profound discussion among Chinese policymakers and scholars. Not surprisingly, US political and economic theories, at one time respected by Chinese intellectuals, evoke growing scepticism as, with growing confidence, China asserts a vision of the modern world at variance with US narratives.

A revealing exce…

It was taken seriously in the USA that war between China and America is inevitable. The US is blaming China for its own decline.

Alan Freeman, a former principal economist with the Greater London Authority and the co-director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group joined the Thinkers Forum in discussing why the USA’s decline is not China’s fault.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused devastating disruptions to our society. It has forced us to reflect upon the failings in the prevailing economic, social, and political models. As the world adapt to the “new normal”, we need to explore a theoretical approach that is pragmatic and effective enough to serve the common interests of humanity.

The Thinkers Forum is an international non-profit organization. In seeking answers to the ways forward, we bring together the world’s foremost thinkers, scholars, entrepreneurs and business leaders to discuss the pressing contemporary issues that go beyond the scope of the western agendas.

<<<<<<>>>>>>

In this webinar, four experts take stock of the world economy in the wake of the escalating trade war between the USA and China. The webinar took place January 28, 2022. You can watch it here.

About this event

What is the real state of the world economy? In this webinar, our panelists assess the relative strengths of the two most important protagonists, China and the USA. As the rift between them deepens with the threat of direct military confrontation looming, propaganda has virtually replaced hard facts. Rumour and speculation are swirling about the USA’s post-COVID recovery whilst allegations that China is suffering a ‘slowdown’ are hard to distinguish from simple Cold War hype. At stake also are the social systems of the two economies, as the USA still struggles to throw off the pandemic by opening the vaults to Big Pharma, whilst China reigns in its property speculators and private technology companies, and goes ever more green, at the same time ambitiously re-centering its economy in response to the USA’s aggressive trade and technology restrictions. Our panel’s three experts dissect the war of words and detach facts from flimflam.

Speakers

Michael Hudson, financial analyst and president of the Institute for the Study of Long Term Economic Trends. He is distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City and professor at the School of Marxist Studies, Peking University, in China. Hudson has served as an economic adviser to the US, Canadian, Mexican, and Latvian governments, and as a consultant to UNITAR, the Institute for Research on Public Policy, and the Canadian Science Council, among other organizations. Hudson has written or edited more than 10 books on the politics of international finance, economic history, and the history of economic thought.

Alan Freeman, co-director, with Radhika Desai, of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group (GERG) at the University of Manitoba. He was an economist at the Greater London Authority between 2000 and 2011, where he held the brief for the Creative Industries and the Living Wage. He wrote The Benn Heresy, a biography of British politician Tony Benn, and co-edited three books on value theory. He is honorary life vice-president of the UK-based Association for Heterodox Economics and a Vice-Chair of the World Association for Political Economy.

Mick Dunford, Emeritus Professor, University of Sussex, Visiting Professor, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Managing Editor, Area Development and Policy.

Michael Roberts worked as an economist in the City of London for various financial institutions for over 40 years – in the heart of the beast! He has written several books including: The Great Recession – a Marxist view (2009); The Long Depression (2016); Joint ed: World in Crisis (2018); Marx 200 (2018); and Engels 200 (2020). He is joint author with G Carchedi of a forthcoming book published this summer by Pluto Press: Capitalism in the 21st century – through the prism of value. He blogs regularly at thenextrecession.wordpress.com.

Moderator – Radhika Desai is a Professor at the Department of Political Studies, and Director, Geopolitical Economy Research Group, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. She is the author of Geopolitical Economy: After US Hegemony, Globalization and Empire (2013), Slouching Towards Ayodhya: From Congress to Hindutva in Indian Politics (2nd rev ed, 2004) and Intellectuals and Socialism: ‘Social Democrats’ and the Labour Party (1994), a New Statesman and Society Book of the Month, and editor or co-editor of Russia, Ukraine and Contemporary Imperialism, a special issue of International Critical Thought (2016), Theoretical Engagements in Geopolitical Economy (2015), Analytical Gains from Geopolitical Economy (2015), Revitalizing Marxist Theory for Today’s Capitalism (2010) and Developmental and Cultural Nationalisms (2009).

中美難免一戰?! 就GDP看美國正在衰落?! 美國衰落是誰的錯?! 美國還能拖其他國家下水?!【國際360】20240423@Global_Vision

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uLenoYRUuM&ab_channel=

now this is the first time a let's call
0:02
it a country of the global south or the
0:04
third world has not merely challenged
0:06
the United States but is getting out of
0:09
the Trap that the United States puts
0:11
everybody in it's China can't stop the
0:14
USA's decline it can contribute to the
0:18
solution by giving an example that
0:20
hopefully American people will start to
0:23
follow there's a tendency now for
0:25
Chinese opinion makers to become quite
0:29
disrespect respectful of Western policy
0:32
makers because they're beginning to fear
0:35
that everything that is being said is
0:37
just designed to to to confuse and and
0:40
to essentially to make things more
0:42
difficult for China greme Alis had
0:44
debates with Chinese Scholars and he
0:47
comes over as a person who's very
0:48
sincerely interested in avoiding War
0:51
which is good which is what Chinese
0:53
people want to do but I became concerned
0:57
that it was taken seriously in China
0:59
perhaps even more concerned that it was
1:01
taken seriously in the United States of
1:04
America because what he essentially
1:07
argues is that war between China and
1:09
America is
1:11
inevitable that's not merely a
1:14
pessimistic message but I think it's a
1:15
very dangerous message because if you
1:17
think war is inevitable then all you can
1:20
do is fight it there's no alternative
1:23
peaceful way but second it has the
1:27
effect because of the reasoning he
1:29
offers of putting the blame on China for
1:32
the tension but in in a subtle way many
1:35
anti-chinese commentators in the west
1:38
say that we don't like China because
1:40
China has done something which we judge
1:42
as morally wrong now there's a lot of
1:44
questions you can ask about the moral
1:46
standard of a nation that was built on
1:48
slavery but anyway they they seem to
1:51
think that they have the right to um to
1:54
judge what everybody else does but
1:56
Graham Allison doesn't say that China's
1:58
doing anything wrong what he says is the
2:01
problem is that China is growing so
2:03
almost and I think this is the reason
2:05
for the interest of of Western of
2:07
Chinese Scholars he says the problem is
2:10
China is doing too well that China's
2:12
rise is a threat to America's
2:17
World position and he makes a historical
2:21
analogy and this is where thiddies comes
2:23
in he talks about ancient Greece in the
2:25
fifth century before before Christ which
2:29
is 2005 00 years ago and he says there
2:32
was a very famous War called the pelian
2:36
war and this war was fought on Greek
2:39
territory now in fact I'm going to
2:41
suggest that that's the first historical
2:43
error he makes it wasn't fought on Greek
2:45
territory it's fought in the
2:47
Mediterranean but this was because the
2:50
dominant power in in in Greece was was
2:52
Sparta and Athens was a rising power it
2:56
wasn't as strong as Sparta but it became
2:59
quite well y quite rapidly and this was
3:02
perceived as a threat by Sparta now the
3:06
famous historian that everybody refers
3:09
to when they want to talk about what
3:10
happened in that war is a man called
3:12
fusades and thides was is many people
3:16
think of him at least in the west as the
3:17
father of modern history he's the first
3:20
person to actually record attempt to
3:22
record historical facts as actually he
3:25
could to give a narrative which wasn't
3:27
just a story wasn't just like Homer who
3:29
who is is wonderful to read but um is
3:32
essentially just saying you know this
3:34
this is the legend he's saying I'm
3:36
attempting to ascertain what really
3:38
happened and he was himself a general so
3:40
he was involved in the war so a lot of
3:42
the incidents he was talking about he
3:44
knew because he was there sides is is
3:47
very widely trusted as a source he had a
3:49
history of the pelian war he makes one
3:52
remark where he says once Athens began
3:55
to rise war between Athens and Sparta
3:58
was inevitable
4:00
then he makes an analogy he says
4:03
everywhere you get a dominant power and
4:06
there is a rising power there will be a
4:09
great power conflict between the rising
4:11
power and the um previously dominant
4:14
power there he then extrapolates and
4:17
says China and the USA are likee Athens
4:21
and Sparta now I'm very concerned
4:25
because particularly finding this was
4:27
taken very seriously by a number of of
4:29
Chinese Scholars and it's first of all
4:32
it's not true even if you forget the the
4:34
history if you just look at the causes
4:36
of the China us conflict it's it's it's
4:38
just demonstrably not true the reason is
4:41
not China's rise the reason is America's
4:44
decline okay that's the first reason and
4:46
nothing China can do can stop America's
4:50
decline except persuade America to
4:52
become more like China in which case it
4:54
will succeed and stop worrying about
4:56
declining but they resist the idea of
4:58
becoming like China therefore they carry
5:00
on declining and that decline is the
5:02
real cause of the growing gap between
5:04
China and the USA you see if you say
5:08
Sparta equals the United States of
5:11
America and Athens equals China then
5:14
you're saying this is a battle between
5:17
uh a slave Run state that used to put
5:21
its children out to die on the hills and
5:23
only kept the ones who survived because
5:25
they were going to be Warriors that's
5:27
the USA by this anal ology and Athens
5:31
the the center of world democracy is
5:33
China so that's a little bit of a
5:35
problem for the
5:37
USA um but the second problem is that it
5:40
wasn't athens's rise that provoked the
5:43
dispute it was when Athens converted
5:46
itself into an Empire and the historical
5:49
record on that is very clear Athens was
5:52
was a naval power it was not a land
5:55
power and you only have to look at the
5:57
role that ships play in Athenian history
5:59
or I will just show you the map of the
6:01
Athenian Empire so that's Athens now
6:04
this is Greece on the left this little
6:06
block here Sparta is down the bottom
6:09
here Athens is you see it's on the east
6:11
coast and Athens allies or its colonies
6:15
as what they called these these little
6:17
black dots went all around the aian sea
6:20
including all the way up to the Black
6:22
Sea incidentally all along the coast of
6:24
what is now turkey but was then Persia
6:27
it was a Mediterranean power and it was
6:28
attempting to set up a Mediterranean
6:30
Empire and the key moment in the war
6:33
which is when Athens started to lose is
6:35
when the rulers of Athens converted this
6:39
green Arc here they converted it from a
6:42
defensive League against Persia not
6:45
against turkey against Persia over here
6:47
became became a big land power in only
6:50
50 years before the war broke out and
6:52
That Was Then the big threat they
6:53
converted that into an Empire and they
6:56
they went on a disastrous military
6:58
expedition to to to conquer Sicily when
7:00
they failed and the leader of that
7:02
expedition alcibiades then deserted to
7:04
the Persians well nothing like that has
7:06
occurred in modern history it's a
7:08
completely different sequence of events
7:10
and the cause was Athens converting
7:13
itself into an Empire so if there's any
7:15
lesson to be drawn from this it would be
7:18
that under no circumstances convert
7:20
yourself into an
7:22
Empire that would be to me the listen
7:25
that China which I think is drawing from
7:26
it I don't think there's any I don't see
7:28
any indication China has any aspirations
7:30
to become an Empire quite aart from
7:32
anything else it can see what happens by
7:34
looking at the USA if you try to do that
7:37
um so the historical analogy is wrong
7:40
and the current analogy is wrong so it's
7:43
not true in terms of today's events but
7:46
it's also not true in terms of the real
7:49
causes of the war between Athens and
7:52
Sparta and it's not true that every time
7:55
you have a rising power that threatens a
7:58
dominant power power the dominant power
8:01
fights with the rising power and a very
8:04
classic example there are many and there
8:06
are many from Chinese history Chinese
8:08
historians have pointed out that there
8:10
are many incidents in the rise of the
8:12
history of China where this simply does
8:14
not apply that the dominant power
8:16
doesn't say oh you know we're GNA fight
8:18
you they say that's quite interesting
8:20
maybe maybe we can learn something for
8:21
you maybe we can work together have a
8:23
bit of a battle and then sort things out
8:24
or whatever right
8:29
there's a very famous political military
8:31
leader called Phillip Philip of Macedon
8:34
and his son was Alexander and that was a
8:37
territory to the north of of Athens and
8:41
Alexander as we know was Victorious
8:44
against the Persians actually crashed
8:45
the Persians created an enormous World
8:48
spanning Empire it was always in
8:50
indirect contact by the con kingdoms and
8:53
qualities that came between but but
8:56
Alexander essentially you know reached
8:57
India and came in direct contact opened
9:00
up the trade routs is sort of
9:02
predecessor of the Bel Sil Silk Road you
9:05
can read many debates in Athens about
9:07
what to do about Phillip and there's a
9:09
debate and the debate had a majority in
9:12
favor of saying well Philip's quite a
9:14
good thing for us he will create
9:15
stability and we'll not have to worry
9:18
about fighting all these uh people like
9:20
Sparta and so on because we'll be part
9:22
of somebody else's Empire so let's do it
9:25
and in fact um Allison who wrote the
9:28
book about the FUSD trap he cites many
9:32
examples in which countries did go to
9:34
war with each other because of um great
9:37
power rivalry caused by the rise of a
9:40
new power and there's a lot of a lot of
9:42
theory around that world world systems
9:45
theory for example about the succession
9:47
of hegemons and so on which I think is
9:51
very suspect but anyway most interesting
9:53
is all Allison's examples start from the
9:56
dawn of capitalism there are 1500 years
10:00
between ancient Greece and the examples
10:03
he's citing he says nothing about
10:05
relation for example between Rome and
10:07
Germany or or or or Athens and and and
10:10
and
10:11
Alexander uh so that he's picked
10:14
something which is specific to an Era of
10:17
History which is very different from the
10:19
era of the ancient world it's it's a big
10:22
historical era which is known in history
10:25
and Alice I'm surprised that he doesn't
10:27
know it to suppose that simply because
10:29
something applies under one set of
10:31
economic and social and historic
10:33
conditions it applies under all of them
10:35
in fact I think the causes of the
10:37
conflicts that he sites are not the
10:40
inevitable rivalry between great Powers
10:43
but capitalism capitalism is an
10:45
inherently competitive system so it's
10:48
all about getting your share of the
10:49
wealth getting your share of colonies
10:52
and driving the other guys out of those
10:55
colonies so that you've got the more
10:58
power so Columbus for example the origin
11:02
of Columbus and the conquest of America
11:05
was that the Ottoman Empire dominated
11:09
Eastern trade so the capital the the the
11:12
rising cities of of Venice and Genoa uh
11:15
the Mediterranean cities who traded with
11:18
China could only trade via the Ottomans
11:22
and the Ottoman Empire also had big
11:25
access to sources of gold which was very
11:27
important because it was used for
11:28
trading and silver so they set out to
11:32
the West because they wanted to find an
11:33
alternative route originally an
11:35
alternative route to India so it was
11:38
motivated by competition from the GetGo
11:40
from 1492 onwards then successive
11:44
countries Rose to dominance England was
11:47
perhaps the first Holland it's argued or
11:49
the Netherlands rather was you know
11:50
perhaps the first seagoing hegemonic
11:53
Power then then England and France Rose
11:55
then England became the dominant
11:57
colonial power there's no question of it
11:59
and they really developed modern
12:00
capitalism then you have Rising
12:03
Challenger Powers you have Germany you
12:05
have America all of whom basically were
12:09
at odds with England and wanted to
12:11
replace it either to fight it or to
12:13
dominate it so the causes of the
12:15
conflicts which Allison traces are
12:18
really the rivals the Rivalry between
12:20
capitalist Powers now that is a problem
12:22
with the United States because it's a
12:24
capitalist power so it's inherently
12:27
competitive but that's not China's fault
12:30
that's that's America's fault now I'm
12:33
just going to see if I can share a graph
12:36
that kind of illustrates the
12:41
problem this is a graph of the GDP as
12:45
the gross domestic product the output of
12:48
the economic power of the United States
12:50
and it starts in 1950 and it goes up
12:52
till today you'll see it has declined
12:55
continuously basically since 1950 it has
12:58
a series crisis which correspond to
13:01
well-known events I'll give you an
13:03
example you look at 1974 there was a big
13:06
crash growth went down from 6% to 2% and
13:10
stayed between 2% and 3% for for a long
13:14
time and there was a big economic slump
13:16
in 1974 it was very famous at the time
13:19
it was the first occasion on which there
13:21
had been a slump of something like the
13:23
scale of 1929 in the west then it
13:27
recovered how did it recover well it
13:29
launched a fullon attack on the rest of
13:32
the World by the policies that we know
13:34
as neoliberalism it shot up interest
13:36
rates it drove many countries that had
13:39
been developing quite well such as you
13:42
know the countries of Latin America
13:43
countries many African countries drove
13:45
them into debt and used debt to impose
13:48
on them policies that basically meant
13:50
they would become exporters of primary
13:53
Goods exporters of products of cheap
13:56
labor and that the West would maintain
13:58
its technical dominance that was very
14:01
effective it increased us power growth
14:05
back up to 4.6% but look what happened
14:08
it crashed right down again to an even
14:10
lower level before next we get you know
14:13
the overthrow of the Soviet Union big
14:16
gain big temporary Leap Forward crashing
14:19
the the Soviet economy which true caus
14:22
of the rise of Putin because you know it
14:24
was a terrible thing for the for the
14:25
Russian economy as as one of the main
14:27
Architects Jeffrey now admits well
14:30
immediately after that it falls again
14:33
and then there's the um this is the this
14:35
is what happens after the the Asian
14:37
financial crisis when what the US
14:39
basically did is it got out of a big
14:41
Financial Mess by trying to get the uh
14:43
Japanese and Koreans to pay for it which
14:46
they did in the so-called reverse Plaza
14:48
Accords then you have 2008 and it's
14:51
crashed to a level of something like 0%
14:54
and it went up for a bit every time it
14:56
goes up you get the journalists saying
14:57
you know we're on the Recovery Road
14:59
we're back on the March but if you look
15:01
at the way that they describe the
15:03
figures the figures don't support the
15:05
theory because the period in which it
15:08
was supposed to have been doing
15:10
wonderfully it was actually expanding at
15:12
a rate of
15:14
2.5% this is the lowest Peak if you look
15:18
if you look at the tops of all these
15:20
things they keep going down so this is
15:22
the lowest peak in postwar history so
15:25
the United States is in historically a
15:28
very bad
15:29
position economically and that's what's
15:32
driving what it
15:37
does because it has two means of
15:40
reinforcing its strength one is which it
15:44
tried in the 1960s to attack its own
15:46
working class so there was a big onsa on
15:51
basically American wages and Trade union
15:53
power in the
15:54
1960s and what did you get 1968 you've
15:57
got the explosion of this then you got
16:00
the intersection of the Vietnam War and
16:02
the Civil Rights Movement which
16:04
originated one should not forget in the
16:05
Trade union movement Martin Luther King
16:08
who was the most famous spokesperson for
16:11
the Civil Rights Movement started off
16:13
very clearly in the defense of workers
16:15
rights because that's where most people
16:17
of color in the United States get their
16:19
living because of the oppressed
16:21
condition they find themselves and the
16:23
attempt to solve it by attacking the
16:25
working class was catastrophic it
16:28
provoked 1968 Rebellion threw American
16:31
society into into enormous
16:34
difficulties and every time that the
16:36
United States attacks its own working
16:38
class it runs into significant internal
16:42
difficulties sometimes take very
16:44
right-wing forms as for example Donald
16:46
Trump but but it runs into difficulties
16:48
so the other method is you get the rest
16:51
of the world to pay for your problems
16:53
you use your economic clout which is
16:56
essentially your technical superiority
16:59
to force them to supply you with cheap
17:01
raw materials products of cheap labor
17:04
minerals agricultural basic products
17:07
that's that's imperialism that's what
17:09
imperialism is and um this was very well
17:12
described by an Indian Economist in the
17:15
1920s 1924 a man a greatly neglected
17:19
thinker called MN Roy and he simply says
17:22
look the rich countries of the world
17:24
they didn't call them the West at that
17:26
time they just called them the rich
17:27
countries they uh exploit the labor of
17:32
four fifths of the world but the poor
17:35
countries can only exploit the labor of
17:37
their own country so they obviously have
17:39
an enormous Advantage they've got the
17:41
whole world working for them but the
17:43
whole world doesn't want to work for
17:45
them and so you have this um almost gut
17:49
reaction that has come out after the war
17:52
with Russia the Ukraine Russia War we're
17:54
country after country including
17:56
countries one would not have expected it
17:58
if you just judge it from the moral
18:00
standards of the USA countries with
18:02
quite right-wing governments
18:03
authoritarian repressive governments
18:05
Saudi Arabia India are saying no we're
18:08
not going along with this and the recent
18:10
visit of the United States plenty
18:12
potenti is to Africa was a complete
18:15
disaster that these African leaders that
18:17
they confronted who were being told go
18:21
along with us and fight Russia said no
18:22
we're not going to we we like working
18:24
with China we like working with Russia
18:26
it's better than what we got from you so
18:29
there's a general atmosphere of Revolt
18:31
amongst that four fifths of the world
18:32
who says we're fed out being being made
18:36
into the solution for America's problems
18:39
now the danger that China presents in
18:42
this respect is it shows that you don't
18:44
have to it shows that you can develop
18:47
your own economy Justin leuin put this
18:50
very well in a contribution I read in
18:52
which he calls it the new economic model
18:54
new econom some people I'm included
18:56
would say that it's actually social
18:59
um which is the view of the the Chinese
19:02
government and basically go along with
19:04
that that it's more economically
19:06
successful and even the United States
19:09
now this is the first time a let's call
19:12
it a country of the global south or the
19:14
third world has not merely challenged
19:16
the United States but is getting out of
19:19
the Trap that the United States puts
19:21
everybody in it's it's not being it's
19:24
not allowing itself to be the exporter
19:26
of primary Goods it's surpassing the USA
19:28
in many areas of technology I don't want
19:31
to exaggerate because the true standard
19:33
of technological achievement is not just
19:35
how many patents you have but how well
19:37
your people are doing but you see the
19:40
policies of China have done enormous
19:41
amount to eradicate uh the lowest levels
19:44
of poverty and I think we'll in time now
19:47
probably begin to eliminate the
19:48
inequality which is which has grown
19:50
under the marketization of the Chinese
19:52
economy and that's a phenomenal
19:54
technological there's no country in the
19:56
world has raised so many people out of
19:58
poverty in such a short space of time at
20:01
all so this is the real threat that
20:04
China presents to the USA is it's not
20:06
allowing itself to be ground down by the
20:08
USA now then the question is what can
20:13
you
20:17
do China can't stop the USA's decline it
20:21
can contribute to the solution by giving
20:25
an example that hopefully American
20:27
people will start to follow and I think
20:30
that's um a very real possibility and
20:32
has to be worked towards but ultimately
20:34
the solution lies in the hands of
20:36
American people uh and a European people
20:39
um and the answer consists of saying no
20:41
to the USA can't do it that way can't
20:44
carry on the way you've done you're
20:46
going to have to try something else so
20:49
this is the sort of main conclusion I
20:51
came to
20:53
[Music]

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