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Kishore Mahbubani 台灣挑戰中美關係 小布希不允許全民公投

(2024-05-01 04:19:04) 下一个

台灣問題挑戰中美關係 當年小布希不允許陳水扁舉行全民公投?! 美國需要什麼樣的總統?

Title: The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order at Asia Society New York

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK2IleaZLDc&ab_channel=

英语 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIfb7BUiqHY&t=1502s&ab_channel=

全球大視野  2024年5月1日

NEW YORK, March 21, 2024 — Asia Society Policy Institute, in partnership with Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, hosts a discussion on the U.S.-China relationship and how it impacts global trends. Speakers include Kishore Mahbubani, 2023-24 Schlager visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Perry World House; and Orville Schell, Arthur Ross director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations. Rorry Daniels, managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute, moderates the conversation. (1 hr., 9 min.) Read Kishore Mahbubani's book, "The Asian 21st Century" for more: https://link.springer.com/book/10.100...

The Asian 21st Century © 2022

 

Kishore Mahbubani 2021年12月30日

Kishore Mahbubani探讨了西方和亚洲在一个日益相互依存的世界村庄所面临的挑战和困境,并加剧了地缘政治竞争。

内容涵盖了四个部分:

第一部分是西方统治时代的尽头。西方现在犯的主要战略错误是拒绝接受这一现实。西方需要学习如何在不再是数字1的世界中进行战略性行动。

第二部分是亚洲的回归。从1到1820年,世界上最大的经济体是亚洲人。然而,在1820年之后,西方的兴起,诸如中国和印度等伟大的亚洲文明被统治和羞辱。二十一世纪将看到亚洲返回世界舞台中心。

第三部分中国的和平崛起。在中国的崛起中,向东方的权力平衡的转变最为明显。

尽管这一崛起是和平的,但西方许多人对中国对世界秩序的影响有很大的关注。第四部分全球化,多边主义与合作。世界上许多紧迫的问题,例如Covid-19和气候变化,都是全球问题,将需要全球合作来应对。简而言之,人类现在住在一个全球村庄。各州必须相互合作,我们需要一个世界秩序,以实现和促进我们全球村庄的合作。

The Asian 21st Century 

Kishore Mahbubani    Dec 30 2021

Kishore Mahbubani explores the challenges and dilemmas faced by the West and Asia in an increasingly interdependent world village and intensifying geopolitical competition.

The contents cover four parts: 

Part One The End of the Era of Western Domination. The major strategic error that the West is now making is to refuse to accept this reality. The West needs to learn how to act strategically in a world where they are no longer the number 1. 

Part Two The Return of Asia. From the years 1 to 1820, the largest economies in the world were Asian. After 1820 and the rise of the West, however, great Asian civilizations like China and India were dominated and humiliated. The twenty-first century will see the return of Asia to the center of the world stage. 

Part Three The Peaceful Rise of China. The shift in the balance of power to the East has been most pronounced in the rise of China. 

While this rise has been peaceful, many in the West have responded with considerable concern over the influence China will have on the world order. Part Four Globalization, Multilateralism and Cooperation. Many of the world’s pressing issues, such as COVID-19 and climate change, are global issues and will require global cooperation to deal with. In short, human beings now live in a global village. States must work with each other, and we need a world order that enables and facilitates cooperation in our global village.

夏偉也會同意 到目前為止最危險的
美中雙邊關係中的問題是台灣
如果有一件事可能導致
美中之間爆發戰爭 那就是台灣
我想你們都知道
從中國的角度來看 台灣
是百年國恥最後一個活生生的標誌
正如你們所知 台灣最初是在1895年
中日戰爭中國失敗後而分離出去的
不將台灣收回
似乎是中華文明中
一個需要修復的持續傷口
但與此同時 為了防止戰爭
我們能做的最好的事情就是
維持現狀不變
不以任何方式改變它
那些想要維護台灣海峽和平的人
有些虛幻地維持著現狀
當然 虛構的是中華民國
代表整個中國
這是一個對和平非常重要的虛構
一旦你放棄它 你就會製造戰爭
與此同時
我想我們都必須理解和尊重
台灣人民維持現狀生活方式的願望
他們不想改變 不想加入中國大陸
這是可以理解的
但如果你想找到一個解決方案
既能滿足台灣人民的願望
維持他們習慣的生活方式
不做任何改變
不感到任何恐懼 不遇到任何困難
又能防止可能發生的戰爭
這是可以做到的
但問題是 你是想看到台灣海峽和平
還是想看到戰爭
我必須說 公平地說
許多美國政府
對此都理解得非常清楚
當台灣的陳水扁總統
在2004年連任總統時
當時的總統是小布希
他對陳水扁總統表示得非常明確
我不會允許你舉行全民公投
這是美國總統做出的非常明智的決定
美國政府理解這個問題的敏感性
必須非常謹慎地處理
川普回來會發生什麼?
如果川普回來... 如果...
噢 如果
你把這段從記錄中刪除
我很抱歉
讓我再次非常直白 非常直接地說
對世界上大多數國家來說
如果喬拜登總統連任會更高興
讓我先說清楚
喬拜登總統非常可預測
謹慎 敏感的一位總統
正如你所知 在世界各地交了許多朋友
但唐納川普2.0 如果他回來
對世界來說將是一個更大的挑戰
對世界來說是一個非常大的挑戰
這就是為什麼
在某種程度上
如果美國能多關注一點
自己內部的挑戰
我在《中國贏了嗎?》一書第七章中說
美國可以不要那麼像富豪統治的國家
造成底層50%的人
在30年內看到了技術進步
但生活水準卻下降的社會
如果你能提高他們的生活水準
給他們一種希望的感覺
他們就不會投票給唐納川普
從世界其他地區的角度來看
我們希望看到強大又充滿活力的美國
人民在那裡感到快樂
而他們選出一位快樂的總統

I think aille would agree that by far
the most dangerous um issue in the US
China bilateral relationship is Taiwan
if there's one thing that could cause a
war between United States and China it
is Taiwan and I think you all know that
from the Chinese point of view Taiwan is
the last living symbol of the century of
humiliation because Taiwan as you know
was first separated from China after
China lost the Sino Japanese war in 1895
so not bringing Taiwan back is seem like
a a sort of a continuing wound in
Chinese civilization that has to be
fixed but at the same time to prevent
War the best thing we can do is to keep
the status quo as it is and not change
it in any way and so those who want to
preserve peace in Taiwan Straits keep
the status quo in some of it is
fictional of course the fiction is that
the Republic of China represents all of
China but that's a fiction that's
actually very important for peace the
minute you drop that you create War now
at the same time I think we must all
understand and respect the desire of the
people of Taiwan to keep their
Lifestyles as it is they don't want to
change they don't want to join uh
mainland China that's
understandable but if you want to find a
solution that accommodates both the
desire of the Taiwanese people to keep
their the way of life life they're used
to without any change whatsoever without
any fear without any difficult and to
also prevent a war it can be
done but the question is do you want to
see peace across Taiwan streets or do
you want to see a war so I'm hope and I
must say to be
fair many US administrations have
understood that very very well so when
President Chan of Tai
Taiwan emerg as you know in around 2003
2004 it was President George W bush that
made it very clear to president chre ban
I will not allow you to have a
referendum that was a very wise decision
made by the president of the United
States so the US government understands
the sensitivity of this issue so that's
got to be very carefully managed now in
the case of what happens when Trump uh
comes back uh I I think if if Trump
comes back huh if Trump comes back oh if
we please delete that from the
record no I'm sorry no no by the way I
let me okay let me be very blun very
direct uh I would say most countries in
the world would be happy happier if
President Joe Biden's elected let me be
very clear about that uh I mean
President Joe Biden is a very
predictable uh careful sensitive uh
president who as you know has has made
many friends around the world but
president Donald Trump version two if he
comes back will I think be a much bigger
challenge uh for the world much much
bigger challenge for the world
and that's why
actually in some
ways if the United States could focus a
bit more
on his own internal
challenges as I say in chapter 7 of my
book as China
1 if United States could become less of
a
plutocracy and create a society where
the bottom
50% who have seen a stagnation in their
standard of living for 30 years if you
can improve their standard of
living give them a sense of hope then
they won't vote for Donald Trump so from
the from the point of view of rest of
the world we want to see a strong
vibrant United States where the people
are happy and they elect a happy
president

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